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Wednesday things were looking great as all my underdogs were either leading or hanging in there against their opponents. Then it all came crashing down! The Mavs pulled away from the Pistons and beat them handily and I could live with that loss. But the Knicks led all the way into the fourth quarter and then were outscored 36-18 in the fourth to drop the cover - disgusting. Washington was right there with Atlanta, too, and then just wilted down the stretch. We went 0-3 on spreads, but both totals hit and 3-0 on props brought the entire evening to a 5-3 record.
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This is the last regular season betting picks article, but the demand for this content has been so high that I am going to keep it going for as long as I can into the playoffs! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, April 8, 2022. I would also strongly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 193-164-2
- Against the Spread 83-74-2
- Over/Under 38-46
- Player Props 72-44
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
Note: I have two bets highlighted in red - that's because both Phoenix and Miami have clinched the #1 seed and could still rest players tonight, even though they currently don't have any of their regulars listed on the injury report. They're risky bets, but if they were to play with 100% effort, they should both be favored in their games.
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NBA Betting Picks
Milwaukee Bucks (-5) @ Detroit Pistons (228.5 total)
So I'm struggling to understand why this spread is so slim. I've been looking for any info that suggests that the Bucks could rest players tonight, but found nothing. They need to win to lock up the #2 seed (Miami is already locked into the #1 seed) and have a beatable opponent here and a chance to rest guys on Sunday against the Cavs.
The Pistons, while they have been betting darlings, don't deserve this much credit. I have the Bucks conservatively favored by 7.5 but they could very easily win here by double digits if we are getting normal minutes from their core players. Again, I am betting on the assumption we get a max effort from Milwaukee here and that they are motivated to have home-court advantage all the way until they face Miami (or potentially have it in the conference finals over Boston or Philly if Miami were to lose earlier).
The Pick: Bucks -5 (-110 DK)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+8) @ Brooklyn Nets (232.5 total)
The Cavs have been a mess and the loss to Orlando the other night was unforgivable. They are really cratering at a bad time with the play-in game happening next week and you simply have to hope that Mobley returns tonight (currently questionable) and Allen by Tuesday (he's still out tonight).
That being said, the Nets simply don't play any defense and we saw them trail a less Knicks game the entire time on Wednesday. Both teams want to win here to avoid dropping into the #9 seed and having to play an elimination game, so we should get maximum effort from both squads. The Cavs have been ATS heroes this season and I think eight points is way too many for a team that has managed to scrap and claw their way into games against better teams this year. Yes, Brooklyn is better, but not that much better than Cleveland and if Mobley does play tonight I will feel pretty good about the Cavs' chances of covering (or even winning!)
Bonus Pick: Cavs +8 (-110 DK)
New York Knicks (+1.5) @ Washington Wizards (224.5 total)
Oh man, I really don't want to go back to the Knicks here but the numbers and trends suggest that I should. They have been playing really well without Julius Randle down the stretch (surprisingly enough) and I was a bit caught off guard they were underdogs here.
This game is a toss-up for sure, but New York has been in better form recently other than that fourth-quarter collapse against the Nets. I like the Knicks here to win and I love that we are getting them at even money, too. The model really likes the under, too, but I am going to avoid any totals today and stick with spreads and props!
The Pick: Knicks ML (+100 DK)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Malik Monk over 3.5 threes (+130 DK)
Talen Horton-Tucker over 34.5 PRA (-105 DK)
The Lakers have cleared the benches for the final few games and Monk/THT are the main guys on offense for L.A. now. Monk was 3-9 from deep last night but shoots the long ball at a near-40% clip, I like the positive odds on him hitting four against OKC here. Meanwhile, THT dropped 40 points on the Warriors last night and should continue to pile up stats and play big minutes.
LaMelo Ball over 34.5 PRA (-125 DK)
The Bulls-Hornets game should produce a lot of offense and Ball has been racking up big numbers of late going over this number in five of his last six. If Caruso is out, the Chicago defense really suffers and I think Ball smashes. If Caruso is in, LaMelo can still get there but he might be slowed down a bit.
Jericho Sims over 16.5 Points/Rebounds (-130 DK)
Sims should start again tonight for New York with Mitch Robinson ruled out and has been a solid per-minute rebounder this season. He played 35 minutes last time out against the Nets and scored 10 points to go with 13 boards. I think this number is very manageable and the matchup here is elite with Washington struggling against big men and resting Porzingis.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
No parlays today, make some of your own using my model!
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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