Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/28/23)

Friday night's NBA playoff slate sadly only features two games. On Wednesday night, we were looking at four potential Game 6 matchups. The New York Knicks ruined the party by winning in Cleveland, finishing the series off in five games. Another series ended in a sudden five games when the Miami Heat beat the Milwaukee Bucks in overtime in Milwaukee. The Memphis Grizzlies were able to extend their series against the Lakers to six games with a dominant win at home. The Golden State Warriors did the impossible and won a game on the road, setting themselves up to clinch the series at home tonight.

After my 1-2 card on Tuesday night, my playoff record moves to 4-5. I didn't anticipate the Trae Young masterclass that helped Boston/Atlanta go over 229.5 and the too-good-to-be-true Timberwolves' +9.5 line ended up being true, to my detriment. I was able to get at least one on the board with the Clippers +12.5 in their series-ending loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers game ended the latest. As far as I'm concerned, I'm 1-0 in my last one. Let's keep it going.

In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite picks against the spread and game totals for the NBA playoff games that tip off at 8:00 PM EST on Friday, April 28.

Sacramento Kings (+7.5) @ Golden State Warriors (235 total)

Series: Warriors lead 3-2

Well well well, how the tides have turned. The first two games of this series saw the Sacramento Kings take a 2-0 series lead behind an electric Golden 1 Center crowd. Golden State rebounded by winning Game 3 in convincing fashion without Draymond Green. Sacramento had a golden opportunity to take a 3-0 lead but Stephen Curry refused to lose and scored 36 points.

Game 4 was another classic and Stephen Curry avoided an all-time blunder after he called a timeout the Warriors didn't have with 42 seconds left. This allowed the Kings to get back into the game when Golden State should've most likely been going to the free-throw line to extend the lead.

Harrison Barnes had a great look to win the game at the buzzer against his former team but it wasn't meant to be. The Warriors and Steph survived to tie the series 2-2.

You have to take a commanding lead against the defending champs when you have a chance. Sacramento wasn't able to capitalize and their worst fears came true in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

Golden State was 11-32 on the road this season (regular season & playoffs) going into Game 5 in Sacramento. The Warriors went into the fourth quarter up by a score of 99-90. It would turn into a very tight game but a Malik Monk missed three-pointer to tie the game with 1:04 left sunk the Kings. Andrew Wiggins would score at the other end to extend the lead to 119-114 with 48 seconds left. The Warriors would win by a score of 123-116.

Warriors Home/Away Shooting This Series

Steve Kerr's team hit 50/96 (52%) field goal attempts in Game 5. During the regular season, they shot 47.6 percent on the road and shot 48 percent in Games 1 and 2. They still shot pretty poorly from three, hitting 11/38 (29%) attempts in Game 5. Golden State has only hit 40/128 (31.3%) three-point attempts on the road.

Now, they go back to the Chase Center, where they were first in the NBA regular season in three-point percentage among home teams at 39.1 percent. They were also first in makes per game at 17.1, almost a full three-pointer better than the Celtics at 16.2. In Games 3 and 4, the Warriors hit 30/84 (35.7%) three-pointers. Percentages improve and there is still a ton of room for growth with the way this team can get hot.

Kings Decline On The Road In Playoffs

Sacramento was one of the best teams on the road this season with a 25-16 record. They did not shoot the ball particularly well in Games 3 and 4. Game 4 should not have been as close as it ended up being. There are just glaring data points for how the Kings have played in Golden State compared to at home.

Their points off turnovers drop from 18.3 at home to 12.5 on the road. Second-chance points are down from 19 to 15. Points in the paint go from a hefty 56.7 in Golden 1 Center to 44 in Chase Center. When it comes to defending opponents, Sacramento has given up more points off turnovers, second-chance points, and fastbreak points to the Warriors on the road. They have been a different team on the road than at home in this series.

Warriors' History In Close-Out Games

I went back and looked at how the Warriors performed in playoff close-out games in the 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2021-22 playoffs. Focusing on the stats of Warriors stars Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, I excluded the championship runs with Kevin Durant as 2014-2016 and 2021-22 are similar to what we see now.

The Warriors have won 11 close-out wins in that timeframe, winning two championships and a conference finals. In those 11 wins, they have an average win margin of 12.3 points. Seven of these 11 have been at home with a winning margin of 12.4 points. In last year's playoffs, Golden State closed out the Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Mavericks at home with a winning margin of 9.3 points. Even when they beat the Boston Celtics in TD Garden in Game 6 of the Finals, they won 103-90.

Stephen Curry played in 10 of 11 close-out victories (missed Game 5 of the first round against the Houston Rockets in 2015-2016) in those three playoffs. He averaged 29.5 points, shot 45 percent from the floor, and hit 51/112 (45.5%) three-pointers. In last year's playoffs, he averaged 27 points per game in close-out wins. This average would've been higher if he didn't only score 15 points in Game 5 against the Mavericks. That game was dominated by his teammate, who I will now get to.

Klay Thompson's stats aren't as lofty as his all-time running mate but he's come up huge in big spots. He's averaged 21.8 points in 11 close-out wins while hitting 50/96 (52%) three-pointers in those wins. Last playoffs, Klay came alive in Game 6 against the Grizzlies when he scored 32 points and hit 8/14 three-pointers, sending Memphis packing.

He also scored 32 points with another eight three-pointers to close out the Dallas Mavericks at home in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. Klay can be streaky but he's loaded with playoff success and experience. The Warriors' shooting guard has started to heat up with games of 25 and 26 points in his last two.

Draymond Green has brought the fire in close-out victories. In the 11 wins, he has averaged 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 6.6 assists. The Michigan State product played a huge role in the 2021-22 playoffs when he averaged 13.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and shot 56 percent from the floor in the Warrior's four series-clinching wins.

With championship pedigree, playoff success, and a history of playing well in big games, I like the Warriors to cover and take care of business in Game 6 at home.

The pick: Warriors -7.5 (-110 DraftKings)

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Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (219.5 total)

Series: Lakers lead 3-2

I was fired up when the Grizzlies won Game 5 of this series to force a Game 6 back in LA. This matchup has been fiery, intense, and it could just be getting started.

Game 4 was really anybody's game. After Desmond Bane hit a shot to go up 104-102 with six seconds left, there was a strong chance this series was going back to Memphis tied 2-2.

As we all know by now, LeBron James hits this tough layup to ultimately send the game to overtime:

The Lakers would control overtime 13-7 and win 117-111. It was a great effort from a Memphis team that shot terribly from the floor.

Game 5 was a different story, with the Grizzlies winning 116-99 on their home floor. They shot 44.4 percent from the floor and 35 percent from three. These percentages don't sound great, and they aren't, but it's a step up from the 38.7 field goal percentage and 27.2 three-point percentage they've had in two games in Los Angeles this series.

The Lakers haven't been helping themselves out either, shooting poorly from the floor this series. Memphis is a very good defensive team and finished third in the NBA in defensive rating. The Lakers were a sneaky top-12 defensive-rated team this season. Three of the last four games in this series have gone under. My play here will not be on the total but I felt like that should've been pointed out.

I really liked what I saw from Memphis in Game 5. Yes, they do play better at home in the playoffs and are now 6-3 at FedEx Forum since last year's playoffs. I don't think they are done yet, though.

Despite it looking like Ja Morant's hand got badly hurt in Game 1, he had 31 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in Game 5. He found success in that game by getting into the lane and continues to be a force downhill. Morant can be a one-man wrecking crew and the Lakers have had a difficult time stopping him this season.

Desmond Bane has picked it up in the last two games after a slow start to the series. In Game 4, Bane scored 36 points and almost hit the game-winner before LeBron tied it. Game 5 saw Bane score 33 points on an efficient 12/21 shooting. What I found interesting about that game is Bane had five assists and 14 potential assists.

The Grizzlies' shooting guard only averaged 7.7 potential assists this season, so to see a jump like that was pretty surprising. It could just be a one-off or it could be a telling sign that Bane is seeing the floor well as a playmaker.

When Morant and Bane are rolling as they did in Game 5, this team is incredibly difficult to beat.

The Lakers have been better in important categories such as points off turnovers, second-chance points, and fastbreak points. The gaps aren't astronomically large; if Memphis steps up, this game should be tight.

Memphis has flat-out been missing open threes, which is killing them. According to NBA.com, the Grizzlies are shooting 31.5 percent on three-pointers with 6+ feet of space, another way of saying wide open. They are getting the most open three-point looks with 22.2 per game and only hitting seven attempts.

This is an easy way for Memphis to pick up points and the Lakers were a bottom-six team this season in opponent three-point attempts. It goes back to my recognition of Bane and his potential assists. He is a threat to score from anywhere, which should leave teammates open around the court. Ja Morant can also facilitate and this was a team that finished second in the NBA in fastbreak points per game.

I'm not ready to throw the towel on the Memphis Grizzlies just yet. Game 4 showed me they can win on the road. In Game 5, everything just clicked for them. I love the Grizzlies with the points here and wouldn't be surprised if this series is heading back to Memphis for a Game 7 on Sunday.

The Pick: Grizzlies +4.5 (-110 DraftKings)

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