X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/12/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 4/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

The NBA postseason is upon us and so is the excitement that comes with it! The league has been toying with the playoff structure the last few seasons since the COVID-shortened season of 2020 and this year we had 10 teams in each conference qualify for the playoffs. Teams that finished seventh through tenth will now compete in a play-in tournament to try to grab the final two spots in the first round. The four teams in action tonight are the seventh and eighth seeds that have the benefit of double elimination. Tonight's winners will be locked into the seventh seed, while the losers will have one more chance to grab the eighth seed later this week against tomorrow night's winners. Does that all make sense? If not you can see the NBA's breakdown here.

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

This is the first postseason betting picks piece so I will reset my record for the playoffs. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. I would also strongly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 196-168-2
  • Against the Spread 85-75-2
  • Over/Under 38-46
  • Player Props 73-47

 

NBA Betting Picks

L.A. Clippers (+3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (230.5 total)

This game should be awesome and I know my buddy Kyle Ringstad (the biggest T-Wolves fan I know) is going to be in attendance and sweating bullets. The last thing that Minnesota fans wanted was for their team to drop into the seventh spot in the West and run the risk of missing the main tournament. And the absolute last thing they wanted was to face a surging Clippers team that has a healthy Paul George. I smell trouble, sorry Kyle!

It's been a hugely successful year for Minnesota, who like Cleveland was one of the most improved squads in the league this year. They finally got the right pieces around Karl Anthony-Towns and their second-year stud Anthony Edwards has blossomed into a star. Minnesota's offense is a thing of beauty and they've been piling up points on opponents all season, but their defense has been rather poor and that's where I give the Clippers a big advantage. The Wolves allowed 113 points per game on average this season and that number has ballooned to 122 points allowed during their most recent 10-game stretch.

L.A. had a solid season, finishing two games above .500 without a single game from Kawhi Leonard and only 31 games from Paul George. Consider that they were 18-13 with PG13 in the lineup (and 2.5 points better in net rating) and you'll start to see why I am siding with them in this matchup. Paul George is one of only a handful of NBA players who can do what he does. He's an elite three-point shooter, solid passer, and still a high-end defender. He's one tier below Giannis, Durant, and LeBron, but his ability to play positionless basketball and affect the game in multiple different ways has still been on display this season.

This Clippers team has reeled off five straight wins and only lost once since George returned to the lineup. They have the size to match up with Towns with the big man platoon of Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac, as well as the perimeter shooting and defense that Norman Powell and Robert Covington (both acquired from Portland before the deadline). Reggie Jackson gets buckets and their bench has a ton of experience this season as guys like Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey, and Terence Mann have all played big minutes when the team was so banged up.

I have three bets here in this game and only one in the second game. The biggest bet is on the Clippers to cover, followed by smaller bets on the L.A. money line and team total. My model has this game going over it's total by a full six points and win or lose, I think the Clippers score 115 tonight in a high-scoring affair.

The Picks: Clippers +3 (-110 DK) and half unit on Clippers ML (+130 DK)

Clippers team total over 114.5 points (-115 DK)

 

Cleveland Cavaliers (+8.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (228.5 total)

I was disappointed that Cleveland stumbled down the stretch and fell into the play-in tournament because at one point they looked like they could really compete for a seed as high as fourth or fifth in the conference. They simply didn't have the depth to deal with injuries to Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen in the second half. Allen's interior defense, rebounding, and post scoring have really been missed and yesterday he was officially ruled out for this game, dealing my optimism for the Cavs postseason hopes another blow.

But not all is lost. Evan Mobley has returned to the lineup and got two games under his belt, including a productive 17-7-3-2-2 line against Brooklyn last Friday. I had the Cavs picked to cover a nearly identical spread in that game and was feeling pretty good about that pick until the Nets did what they do - turned it on late and got some separation in an 11-point win.

No matter how I run the numbers, I keep coming up with the Cavs to cover here. Even with their most recent form being significantly less impressive than their first-half form, I can't find the math to support a spread this large. Surely the playoff atmosphere and the gritty character of this Cavs team will help aid their cause, too, right? I'm not sure if I am trying to sell you here or maybe talk myself into this pick.

But again, in all honesty, and fandom aside, the Nets should win this game, but I think the Cavs should cover, too. The Nets have a 3-1 season series lead, but the win last Friday was the only time they covered this number. I'm taking Cleveland and the points here and banking on their ability to continue to compete against good teams. Hopefully, they show up tonight in a huge game for the franchise.

Bonus Pick: Cavs +8.5 (-110 DK)

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Darius Garland over 33.5 points/assists (-125 DK)

This is the softest Garland prop I could find. His rebound prop is 3.5 and I think he can easily grab four boards, but it's no safe bet as he had no boards in Saturday's game against Brooklyn and the Cavs usually have at least two 7-footers on the floor at the same time to gobble up boards. So let's take rebounds out of the equation and focus on Garland's strengths - passing and shooting. He's going to have the ball in his hands every possession and in a game of such importance, I have pushed his minutes' projection up to 40-42 minutes. The Cavs are simply much, much better with him on the floor even after bringing in Caris LeVert to help shoulder the ball-handling and scoring duties.

Anyway, the long-story-short is that despite only having three assists in their last meeting with the Nets, Garland had 6, 11, and 12 in the other games and averages almost nine per game. His scoring of late has been way up from his season average of 21.7 and I like his chances of getting to 34 with points and dimes here whether he does it with more buckets or assists doesn't matter to me.

Reggie Jackson over 17.5 points (-105 DK)

I was looking for a prop that wasn't so soft and where I think the field or Vegas is off a bit and wound up here. Jackson functions more like a shooting guard than a point guard with George in the lineup. He scored a half-point more with George this season than without him and his assists go down a tick. He averaged over 18 per game against Minnesota this year with the one really bad game (only five points) dragging that average down. In a game where I expect the Clippers to score a bunch of points, I see Jackson clearing this number.

Ivica Zubac over 17.5 Points/Rebounds (-120 DK)

The big man might be splitting time with Hartenstein, but has still been very effective and is coming into tonight with four straight double-doubles. In three games against KAT this season, he's averaged 22 points/boards and only missed this number once (16 combined stats in the very first meeting). If he gets his usual 24-25 minutes of run, he's very capable of clearing this number with ease.

Paul George over 1.5 steals (-155 DK)

This is what I can a parlay prop. It's not something I want to bet as a straight with those odds, but definitely something you can add another soft prop to get some decent odds. George averages over two steals per game and has two or more in every game since he's returned. If you want some better odds, consider over 2.5 steals/blocks at +105 since George is right around 2.6 "stocks" per game on the season.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Nola

Pitches Seven Strong Innings
Tylor Megill

Strikes Out Nine In No-Decision
Hunter Brown

Strikes Out Nine In Win
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice
Andy Pages

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Ketel Marte

Expected To Return Next Weekend
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Noelvi Marte

Has Big Game On Sunday
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Brandon Marsh

Removed Early During Rehab Game
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Looks Sharp In Rehab Start
Josh Jung

Makes Early Exit On Sunday
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Jarren Duran

Collects Four Hits On Sunday
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Clayton Kershaw

To Make Two Rehab Starts This Week
Jackson Merrill

Takes Batting Practice On Sunday
Sean Murphy

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Will Smith

Resting On Sunday
Max Brosmer

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Tyler Fitzgerald

To Miss Second Straight Game
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

No Longer Facing One-Game Suspension

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Cam Ward

Xavier Restrepo Reunites With Cam Ward In Tennessee
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Kyle Busch

Nearly Always Leads at Talladega, but Rarely Leads Much
Tyler Reddick

Drafting Track Record Worse Than It Looks
Daniel Suarez

Likely Motivated at Talladega Since Trackhouse Cars Likely Too Slow for Him to Win On Regular Tracks
Ryan Preece

Qualifies Fourth Due to Ford Dominance, but Don't Expect Him to Finish There
Justin Haley

Qualifies 37th in First Race After Rodney Childers's Departure
Chase Briscoe

Post-Daytona 500 Penalty Results in Much Worse Talladega Qualifying for Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman

Starting Too Well for Place Differential Points, but Not Well Enough for Leader Points
Chris Buescher

Qualifies Sixth Thanks to Ford Dominance, but Probably Won't Lead Enough to Be Valuable in DFS
Ty Gibbs

Despite Current Momentum, Ty Gibbs Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Gabriel Landeskog

Scores First Goal In Nearly Three Years
Ivan Barbashev

Gives Vegas Vital Win
Nikita Kucherov

Records Three Assists In Game 3 Win
Troy Stecher

Cleared For Sunday
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Quinn Ewers

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday
Will Howard

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft
Kyle McCord

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room
Ollie Gordon II

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield
Oronde Gadsden II

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense
DJ Giddens

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Jaydon Blue

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round
Jordan Watkins

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Shedeur Sanders

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings
Elic Ayomanor

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Royals

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Jaylin Lane

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room
Dylan Sampson

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Gunnar Helm

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF