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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/21/22)

If you have a bad case of the "Mondays" because you had to go back to work after watching basketball for four days straight, I get it. I'm with you. But I mean - I watch basketball every day of the year all season long so give the NCAA tournament a break and tune into your favorite NBA game tonight instead. It's a pretty loaded Monday night slate and I smell some live underdogs! Fantasy basketball playoffs are in full swing and the real playoff race is struggle for seeding is going on as well with teams in both conferences trying to secure their spots. Yesterday I kept things simple and skipped props, going 2-1 overall and hitting the money line parlay, with the lone miss being Denver who absolutely didn't show up in the second quarter and the starters got benched at halftime. Then their coach put them back into the game late in the third and they made a run but still came up short. You win some and you lose some and so far I am still eight picks above .500 on the season which was my goal when I started writing this piece at the beginning of the year!

Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, March 21, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 140-132-2
  • Against the Spread 70-62-2
  • Over/Under 30-40
  • Other/Props 40-31
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Utah Jazz (-1.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (229 total)

This is a really interesting game and believe it or not, I actually saw this spread open with the Nets being favored. Perhaps that reflected some questions as to whether or not the Jazz would have Mike Conley back tonight, but I'm pretty sure he was just being rested last night so that he could play tonight.

Meanwhile, the Nets will be without Kyrie Irving here as he still can't play home games due to the vaccine regulations. That leaves the Nets short-handed and the weight of the world on Kevin Durant's shoulders. KD has a few solid sidekicks, but without Kyrie I have Brooklyn rated well behind Utah even if they're still without their top shooter Bojan Bogdanovic.

The Jazz made me look foolish for picking against them last Friday when they demolished the Clippers and took care of the Knicks last night. If it weren't for them being on a back-to-back AND on the road, I would expect this spread to be much larger. I'm fine laying 1.5 here or even a few more points, I think Utah wins and can cover.

The Pick: Jazz -1.5 (-110) 

 

Toronto Raptors (+3.5) @ Chicago Bulls (224 total)

I'm on some road teams today and a couple of really live underdogs with the Raptors being the first. Toronto is coming off a huge win over the Sixers last night and they've got no time to celebrate as they head right to Chicago to take on another Eastern Conference playoff foe in the Bulls.

The most impressive thing about this Toronto team of late has been their defense. They limited the Harden/Embiid offense in Philly to 88 points and they've been a top-5 defensive unit over the last two weeks.

Other than an overtime loss to the Lakers last Friday, this team is 6-1 over their last seven games. They won last night without their lead guard Fred VanVleet, but he should be back in the lineup tonight giving them a formidable trio of VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam that should be able to keep pace with the Bulls big three of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic.

Being on the road is not an issue as Toronto is covering at a 65% rate as the road team this season. I like them with the points and I'll have a smaller bet on their money line, too. Anytime I like an underdog to win, I like building my bets out to where I have them to cover and to win separately, and if I really like them a lot I may even move the line even further with alternate lines and put a small amount on them giving some points.

The Pick: Raps +3.5 (-110) and Raps ML (+140)

 

Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (229.5 total)

This pick is highly contingent on Minnesota big man Karl-Anthony Towns being in the lineup tonight as he's currently questionable, but he's played through his injury which makes me think he'll likely be in the lineup tonight for a big game against a solid conference opponent.

I'm all over the T-Wolves as road dogs here in this one. While Dallas is not a team I like to pick on very often, they're very banged up right now and they lack the kind of depth that Minnesota has on their roster. Not to bury the lede here but the Wolves are the hottest team in the NBA right now having won nine of their last ten games while compiled at +18 net rating.

These teams have split the season series 1-1 but both of those games were all the way back in December. The Wolves' recent run has them looking like a very legit dark horse in the West as they've moved up into the sixth seed currently and are only 1.5 games behind Dallas for fifth.

At the end of the day, it's going to be Luka vs. KAT and I'm not sure either side can stop the other. But KAT has more help with D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards on the wings and Minnesota easily has the better bench. I'm riding the hotter team tonight and betting the wolves with the points and to win straight up.

The Pick: T-Wolves +3.5 (-110) and T-Wolves ML (+140)

 

NBA Totals Betting Picks

Miami Heat (-1.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (215.5 total)

There is certainly a possibility that I am betting this trend to death by going back to it for a third straight game, but I really can't resist this under because Miami is a really good defensive team and the Sixers were just held under 90 points by Toronto last night as our under cruised to an easy hit.

Jimmy Butler should play in this one and the Heat have a major weapon to deploy against Joel Embiid in Bam Adebayo. Like I mentioned yesterday, the Sixers have slowed way down and aren't posting big numbers as they did in the first handful of games after Harden arrived.

This is yet another day where I wish I had my article finished earlier for you as this total opened up around 218 and has already been bet down. But there's still some room to go under even at 215.5 as I have this one pegged for around 210. I will probably only bet it down to 213 just to have some wiggle room.

The Pick: UNDER 217.5 (good down to 213) (-110)

 

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NBA Prop Bet Picks

3:00 PM UPDATE

Saddiq Bey over 29.5 PRA (-120) - Jerami Grant is out and Bey is playing well right now. If you missed it, he just had a massive 51-point game against Orlando last week and Portland is terrible defensively, especially against the SF position.

Al Horford over 20.5 PRA (-125) - The Time Lord Robert Williams III is out tonight, meaning more rebounds and opportunities for the ageless wonder - Big Al Horford. OKC gets pummeled by big men and the only real risk here is a blowout. Horford averages around 22 PRA in games that Williams has missed and the matchup boost here is significant.

Darius Garland over 24.5 points (-130) - By now you should know we attack the Lakers with point guards! His P/A and PRA numbers are a bit high for my liking, but he's averaged 26.1 points per game in the ten games since he returned from his back injury in late February.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick: CLE/DET/CHA money line parlay (+155)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

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To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
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Makes Early Exit
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Likely Avoids Major Injury
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Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
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Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
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Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
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To Remain Out Saturday
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Unavailable For Game 3
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Out On Saturday
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Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
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Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
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Iffy For Saturday's Action
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Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
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Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

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Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
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Available To Return Saturday
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To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
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Resting For First Time This Year
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To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
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Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
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A Game-Time Decision Friday
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Out On Friday Against Royals
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Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
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Sitting Out For First Time This Season
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Collects Double-Double In Loss
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Scheduled For Co-Main Event
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Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
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Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
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Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

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Jrue Holiday

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Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
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