Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/15/23)

The last time you heard from me, I had a disappointing 1-2 night. The Golden State Warriors couldn't cover on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder, dropping them to 7-25 away from Chase Center. My over of 229.5 between the Brooklyn Nets and Houston Rockets was looking good after a 59-point first quarter. Houston would only score 64 points in the next three quarters and a team that averages over 110 points per game scored a measly 96. Thankfully, the Lakers covering as small favorites at home against the Memphis Grizzlies got us into the win column for the night. Overall picks move to 3-3 but I'm back looking for a turnaround.

Tonight, we have seven games on the NBA slate. I'll be picking a few spreads to look at. The over/unders are tricky so I will be providing more analysis on game picks as it's easier to contextualize matchups. At the end of the article, I'll point out my favorite moneyline parlay that has good plus odds value.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, and parlays for NBA games that tip-off at 7:30 PM EST on Wednesday, March 15th. You can find me on Twitter @Jwiesel13, I love to interact with the community and meet new people.

NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Miami Heat (-4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (219 total)

Heat forward Jimmy Butler was visibly frustrated on Saturday when he walked off the court as the Miami Heat were running the clock out in an overtime loss to the Orlando Magic. Butler scored 38 points and hit a heroic three-pointer to send the game to overtime. The loss dropped the Heat to 36-32, seventh in the Eastern Conference.

It's important to look back on that Magic loss and see the potential run it could start. Two days later, the Heat would defeat the Utah Jazz 119-115 in Miami. Butler paced the Heat with 24 points, eight rebounds, four assists, four steals, and two blocks. Tyler Herro would hit a three-pointer to put the Heat up 117-115 with 56 seconds left and Bam Adebayo made two clutch free throws to ice the game 119-115 with only six seconds remaining.

Building on the nice home win, I like the winning to continue for the Miami Heat. They face a Grizzlies team on a three-game win streak with their two most recent wins coming against a Mavericks squad without Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving. Miami is starting to get fully healthy again and display its deep roster of seemingly interchangeable players.

In the five games (so far) since Ja Morant left the team, Memphis has been a very pedestrian offense. They rank around the league average or slightly better in points per game, offensive rating, field goal, and three-point percentage. Without their superstar player, this is likely due to regress.

Miami is 23-13 at home this season. They are just 10-24-2 ATS on their home court but this is a great spot to get win number 11 ATS. It will be a very physical game and the Heat's talent should be able to bring them over the top.

The pick: Miami Heat -4 (-110)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+5) vs. Boston Celtics (234 total)

The Boston Celtics are coming off one of the most disappointing losses of the NBA season. A 13.5-point favorite in Houston against the Rockets, Boston lost outright 111-109 on Monday night. Boston is just 5-5 in their last 10 games and things haven't looked great. They come in 13th in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating over this timeframe. That's good enough for 12th in net rating. For the season as a whole, Boston ranks fourth in offensive and defensive rating and second in net rating. It's been a weird stretch for debatably the league's best team and I'm hoping to catch them slightly off their game again.

Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert have both been playing great this month. Holding onto a 3-2 record in the month of March, Edwards has been scoring to the tune of 28 points per game. He's been able to complement that with six rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Ant-man has scored 30+ in three straight games and looks in prime form. Gobert has averaged 16 points, 11.5 rebounds, and almost two blocks per game over the five-game stretch. What's been encouraging is Mike Conley (15.2 PPG), Jaden McDaniels (13 PPG), Kyle Anderson (12.4 PPG), and Taurean Price (10.2 PPG) have all found ways to chip in.

This Minnesota team likes to play fast, scoring the third-most fastbreak points this month. Boston ranks 14th in opponent fastbreak points per game this month - advantage Minnesota. Scoring 59.2 points in the paint this month places the Timberwolves in the top five. The 54.9 in the paint the Celtics have allowed in seven March games is in the top five for most allowed in the NBA.

I like the way Anthony Edwards and co. are playing right now and though they may not win, they should keep this game close.

The pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +5 (-110)

Chicago Bulls (+1 ) vs. Sacramento Kings (239 total)

The 2022-23 NBA season hasn't been too kind to the Chicago Bulls. Sitting at 31-36, Chicago is just holding onto a play-in spot in the Eastern Conference. For a team that finished 46-36 last season, their play hasn't been good enough. Despite the disappointment, I like their chances of picking up win number 32 tonight. Sacramento enters this game 40-27, a top-three seed in the Western Conference. They have been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season at 19-13.

Looking again at March statistics, these two teams are very similar in a lot of categories. Field goal percentage: Bulls (second), Kings (third). Three-point percentage: Bulls (second), Kings (fifth). Free throw percentage: Bulls (15th), Kings (17th). Rebounds per game: Kings (25th), Bulls (26th). Offensive rating: Kings (second), Bulls (fifth). Net rating: Kings (seventh), Bulls (11th).

Sacramento has the clear edge in points per game this month, scoring the second-most while the Bulls are 15th. Chicago has been better on defense in March, ranking 22nd while the Kings are toward the very bottom.

All of this is to show these teams haven't been all that different as of late.

The Kings beat the Bulls 110-101 in Golden 1 Arena behind a Domantas Sabonis triple-double back on December 4. This time around, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine take care of business at home.

The pick: Chicago Bulls ML (+100)

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NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite Money Line Parlay: MIA + PHI (+184 DK)

Underdog parlay: HOU + GSW (+351 DK)

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