Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/10/23)

Continuing the theme of "fewer games than usual on a big NBA night," we have just six NBA contests tonight. Two of these games are rematches from Wednesday, making them feel a bit like traps (closely projected games where we could just take the same team that won Wednesday again tonight). It's a hairy slate for sure, but that won't stop me from making a few suggestions and continuing my quest to get this dang overall record up over .500 for the season!

I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, March 10th.

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

• 2022-2023 Overall Record: 125-126-2
• Against the Spread: 61-62-2
• Game/Team Totals: 13-27
• Moneyline Parlay: 17-25
• Teasers: 31-12

NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) vs. Washington Wizards (239 total)

Here's one of the two aforementioned "trap games" where a lazy analyst could just pick the winner of Wednesday's game and call it a day. The other rematch is Cleveland and Miami and I already got away with predicting a Cavs win (and cover) in that one on Wednesday so I am not going back to the well there.

Truth be told, I avoided this game on Wednesday because there were other more predictable outcomes I thought, but my projections had Washington winning it, and they still have them winning here as well. Both clubs look to be fully healthy and this should be another really good game between second-tier Eastern Conference teams who are bound for the play-in tourney. While it would be tempting to just bet the over (they combined for 245 points on Wednesday night), I think a more likely outcome would be the under as both teams adjust to what they just saw; however, I also don't have enough faith in either defense to go there.

So where does that leave me? On the Wizards at home for plus odds, it seems. I like Washington when they have the whole band together and I have been a pretty vocal "Atlanta is overrated" person all season, too. All things being relatively equal, I will take the home team and I will usually take the better odds in these games that are quite literally toss-ups.

The Pick: Wizards ML (+100)

Toronto Raptors (+1) @ Los Angeles Lakers (225 total)

This could easily be one of those picks that I regret a few minutes after this article comes out (like the Dallas pick was the other night), but I have to roll with my gut here and pick a team I rarely trust to win a close game at home. Yes, I am picking the Lakers, but I don't have to like it (grumble, grumble).

All kidding aside, this L.A. team has surprisingly not crumbled entirely since LeBron went down. They're actually 3-2 since his injury and have two quality wins in a row now over Golden State and Memphis. They've been getting by even without D'Angelo Russell, who is slated to return tonight, and that should give their offense a nice boost and allow Anthony Davis to not have to carry the scoring burden by himself entirely.

This pick has as much to do with liking the Lakers (yuck) as it does with me and my indifference for Toronto, too. The Raptors are a team I picked at the All-Star break to fade down the stretch as I bet the under for their total wins. They've lost two in a row and three of their last four on a brutal road trip out West. I simply don't have much faith in their ability to pull out tough wins as we just haven't seen them do it that often. Even this Poeltl version of Toronto, while improved, is still a mediocre basketball team.

The Lakers are 17-15 ATS at home this year, while the Raps are just 14-20 ATS on the road. If you needed some more trends to feel good about this one, there you go. The Lakers win this one at home, even if it's not very pretty.

The Pick: Lakers -1 (-110)

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NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Portland Trail Blazers (+8.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (230 total)

We hit a total last time out, so let's have at it again! This game is a weird one when I go to look at the factors that I usually consider for totals. It's one of the slowest-paced games on the slate, but also carries the highest offense efficiency metric and worst defensive efficiency (mainly due to Portland), too. That means while it might not be fast-paced, it features some pretty darn good offensive players (Harden, Embiid, Lillard) who are going to be hard to stop.

The Blazers also just got their center Jusuf Nurkic back, which should be a small bump to their offense as he can score in the post and also act as a solid P+R man for Lillard and the passer. Anfernee Simons (their second-leading scorer) is also questionable here and could return just in time to boost their offense a bit.

The Sixers have been rolling up points lately, scoring 125+ points in three of their last four games. I think they'll definitely do their part against a much-maligned Portland defense, we just need the Blazers to put up enough of a fight to push the total over the top. If you'd rather just bet on Philly's success, then I like their team total over 120.5, too.

The Pick(s): OVER 230 (-110), half unit on Sixers OVER 120.5 Team Total (-115)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

NO Money Line Parlay

Underdog TEASER (SUPER-TEASER, buying 10 points)

BKN +14.5, WAS +11.5, POR +18.5, TOR +11 = (-120 DK)

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