Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (2/13/23)

I might have a bit of a Super Bowl hangover (not alcohol-induced, but rather Philly losing-induced) from last night's game. But there's no way I was going to miss a chance to write up some NBA picks on one of the two remaining big slates before the All-Star break. Tonight we have 11 games on the slate and after a rocky week of trade deadline activity that made betting a tricky proposition, I am ready to get back after it.

I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too. Props have been hot lately, too!

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, February 13th.

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

• 2022-2023 Overall Record: 106-113-1
• Against the Spread: 50-56-1
• Game/Team Totals: 12-26
• Moneyline Parlay: 15-22
• Teasers: 26-10

NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (232 total)

The Kyrie era in Dallas is off to an inauspicious start. The Mavs split a 2-game series with the Kings over the weekend, rallying behind Kyrie to win on Friday night but losing the following night despite Luka returning to the lineup.

The Timberwolves have been on the rollercoaster over the last week, winning by 25 and 30 points but also losing by big margins to Memphis and Denver, too. As inconsistent as they've been, I don't think they should be such heavy dogs going into this one as long as they're completely healthy (other than KAT, of course).

Dallas is pretty good at home and should be an improved team with Kyrie and Luka leading the way, however, they're been terrible ATS this season, sporting a league-worst 38% cover rate. The addition of Kyrie and the loss of Dinwiddie/Finney-Smith should end up being a net negative on their defense, too, allowing the Wolves to find some success on offense. I think Minnesota has enough firepower to keep this one close and I expect them to be able to cover here.

The Pick: Wolves +7.5 (-110)

Denver Nuggets (+1) @ Miami Heat (220.5 total)

Who is actually going to play in this game tonight? Both teams have a number of guys out and another handful of guys who are questionable as of right now, too.

I would expect Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon to return for this one and I suspect they were given an extra day to get right this weekend as the Nuggets figured they could beat Charlotte without their full complement of starters (and they did). When Denver is at full strength they might be the best team in the NBA and even at 70% they're still pretty darn good.

Meanwhile, Miami has been limping its way to wins lately. Yes, they've won three in a row but they trailed Indiana, Houston, and Orlando in each of those games before finally pulling out close wins late. They can't afford to play that game here against Denver, they'll get buried.

I'm grabbing Denver and their odds now in a game that is basically being viewed as a pick 'em. If Denver gets their starting five back intact tonight, I think they could absolutely roll the Heat. And even if they're missing a few pieces, they've shown that they can win. Miami can battle with anyone, but I don't think they have enough to beat a superior Nuggets team here.

The Pick: Nuggets ML (-110)

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NBA Betting Picks: Game/Team Totals

Atlanta Hawks (-5.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (240.5 total)

Here I am recommending a total again after being tortured by totals all season! But something feels off here with this total being very high despite what the numbers suggest.

Yes, we do think of offense (and not defense) when we think of Atlanta and Charlotte. But the teams have combined for only a +1.8 differential against their collective totals so they're not going way over their totals all that often this year and Charlotte has actually gone under (52%) more often than over despite the popular belief that they get into track meets all the time.

These teams have actually already played three times this year and none of those meetings exceeded 240 points (one game finished right at 240, the others were well below it). Atlanta has a number of guys marked as questionable and could be playing without some key players. And Charlotte has been better overall since Ball and Hayward returned to the lineup. Having Mark Williams as their new starting center could even boost their overall defense as he replaces Mason Plumlee who was not as good of a rim protector.

I am on the UNDER here as low as 238 - though this total has risen a half point since I started writing this piece. Fade the public, trust the data - this one is going under!

The Pick: UNDER 240.5 (-110)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

FAVORITE TEASER (buying 10 points - SUPER TEASER!)

WAS +13.5, LA +11, ORL+15, MIN +17.5 = (-120 DK)

I usually aim for better odds, but I have a lot of success with 8-point teasers with 3-teams and 10-point teasers that DK offers for 4 teams and we are basically looking to make a safe profit here.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller Discord on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

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