RADIO
Wednesday was a rough day and I had a feeling it would be as I absolutely hated that slate of games. I went 0-4 and frankly didn't have a very good feel for those totals and totally regret putting any faith whatsoever into a bad Pelicans team that got absolutely trounced by the Mavs.
This slate is better, but not great either. I do have a few picks I really like and I want you to know I don't have a set number of picks I do every day - I only write up the games and bets that I personally bet money on myself and that I feel have a better than average chance at winning.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, December 3rd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 30-44
- Against the Spread 15-12
- Over/Under 10-16
- Teasers/Parlays 5-16
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) @ Washington Wizards (208.5 total)
Okay, by now you know that I am a Cavs fan and I can absolutely promise you that I open up every slate of games HOPING that I don't have to recommend betting on the Cavs because I am terrified of jinxing them. But I have to go where the numbers and the trends (and my gut) take me and it's back on Cleveland again today.
The Cavs have been slightly better than Washington in terms of their overall net rating this year, so they actually shake out as evenly matched here even when you add in the home-court advantage for the Wizards. If we look at the one game they played already this season, we see that Cleveland battled (as they always do) but lost by three points to the Wizards. However, they didn't have Kevin Love or Lauri Markkanen for that game and they're playing some great team basketball right now and riding high with big wins over Dallas and Miami recently.
That first game ended at 97-94 and the model likes the under here again. Even though the line is already pretty low, this game should be a slugfest where I wouldn't be surprised to see it going under 200 again. I'm backing the Cavs with the points, taking them straight up, and taking the under here.
The Pick: Cavs +4 (-105 DK Sportsbook) and/or Cavs ML (+155 DK Sportsbook)
BONUS PICK: UNDER 208.5 (good down to 207) -115 DK Sportsbook
Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (214 total)
This should be one of the more entertaining games of the evening. These teams are division rivals and there's a recent history of some bad blood between them as the Hawks upset the Sixers in the playoffs last year as the lower seed. They've only met once this season and the Sixers blew the Hawks out way back in October 122-94.
These teams are in very different spots since that game, however, and the metrics suggest that Atlanta has been the better overall team so far this year. Philly's numbers are obviously skewed a bit since Embiid missed a big chunk of games due to COVID protocols, but the Sixers have still struggled since Embiid returned going 1-2 over their last three and barely beating a bad Orlando team while dropping games to Minnesota (in OT) and to Boston (by one point on Wednesday night).
The Hawks are in great form, winning eight of their last nine. I think they have enough firepower to outscore Philly in this game and Trae Young has been downright unstoppable lately. If Collins and Capela can slow down Embiid, then Atlanta has the advantage at just about every other position on the court. It should be a battle, but all we need here is a 2-point win from the Hawks to cover and I simply think they are playing better basketball right now than Philly. There's a lot of gut call in this pick, but I will side with the home team and the superstar (Young) who is playing at an elite level right now.
The Pick: Hawks -1.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
LA Clippers (+1.5) @ LA Lakers (215.5 total)
This game got bumped from national TV to make room for the Suns-Warriors rematch - and rightly so as that game is far more compelling for an audience outside the LA area. But this game is still interesting from a betting perspective and I'm going to do something I don't do much anymore - recommend an over!
The Lakers should return LeBron James from COVID protocols and I expect Anthony Davis (currently questionable) to suit up for this one, too. The Lakers have underachieved badly the first six weeks and at some point, they know that they need to win some games against good teams and start climbing back up the standings.
The Clippers will have a fully-rested Paul George on the other side of things and should be equally motivated to right the ship as they have stumbled lately, too, going 3-7 over their last ten games to drop to 11-11 overall this year.
This game has the highest projected pace on the slate and if all the superstars are playing, I like the chances of both offenses getting back on track and being productive. Both of these teams have been considerably worse on defense this year than they were last year and should have a tough time keeping the opposing offenses in check. I'll take the over here, even if the model barely likes it, my big ole' gut says we see this game go well over this total.
The Pick: OVER 215.5 (good up to 217), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Going to toss in some teams here who I think win at home for a ML parlay. I don't really love any of these spreads, but I think all four home teams come away victorious.
Warriors/Mavs/Jazz/Pacers ML Parlay (+215 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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