X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/3/21)

Trae Young - Atlanta Hawks

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/3/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

Wednesday was a rough day and I had a feeling it would be as I absolutely hated that slate of games. I went 0-4 and frankly didn't have a very good feel for those totals and totally regret putting any faith whatsoever into a bad Pelicans team that got absolutely trounced by the Mavs.

This slate is better, but not great either. I do have a few picks I really like and I want you to know I don't have a set number of picks I do every day - I only write up the games and bets that I personally bet money on myself and that I feel have a better than average chance at winning.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, December 3rd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 30-44
  • Against the Spread 15-12
  • Over/Under 10-16
  • Teasers/Parlays 5-16

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) @ Washington Wizards (208.5 total)

Okay, by now you know that I am a Cavs fan and I can absolutely promise you that I open up every slate of games HOPING that I don't have to recommend betting on the Cavs because I am terrified of jinxing them. But I have to go where the numbers and the trends (and my gut) take me and it's back on Cleveland again today.

The Cavs have been slightly better than Washington in terms of their overall net rating this year, so they actually shake out as evenly matched here even when you add in the home-court advantage for the Wizards. If we look at the one game they played already this season, we see that Cleveland battled (as they always do) but lost by three points to the Wizards. However, they didn't have Kevin Love or Lauri Markkanen for that game and they're playing some great team basketball right now and riding high with big wins over Dallas and Miami recently.

That first game ended at 97-94 and the model likes the under here again. Even though the line is already pretty low, this game should be a slugfest where I wouldn't be surprised to see it going under 200 again. I'm backing the Cavs with the points, taking them straight up, and taking the under here.

The Pick: Cavs +4  (-105 DK Sportsbook) and/or Cavs ML (+155 DK Sportsbook)

BONUS PICK: UNDER 208.5 (good down to 207) -115 DK Sportsbook

 

Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (214 total)

This should be one of the more entertaining games of the evening. These teams are division rivals and there's a recent history of some bad blood between them as the Hawks upset the Sixers in the playoffs last year as the lower seed. They've only met once this season and the Sixers blew the Hawks out way back in October 122-94.

These teams are in very different spots since that game, however, and the metrics suggest that Atlanta has been the better overall team so far this year. Philly's numbers are obviously skewed a bit since Embiid missed a big chunk of games due to COVID protocols, but the Sixers have still struggled since Embiid returned going 1-2 over their last three and barely beating a bad Orlando team while dropping games to Minnesota (in OT) and to Boston (by one point on Wednesday night).

The Hawks are in great form, winning eight of their last nine. I think they have enough firepower to outscore Philly in this game and Trae Young has been downright unstoppable lately. If Collins and Capela can slow down Embiid, then Atlanta has the advantage at just about every other position on the court. It should be a battle, but all we need here is a 2-point win from the Hawks to cover and I simply think they are playing better basketball right now than Philly. There's a lot of gut call in this pick, but I will side with the home team and the superstar (Young) who is playing at an elite level right now.

The Pick: Hawks -1.5  (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

LA Clippers (+1.5) @ LA Lakers (215.5 total)

This game got bumped from national TV to make room for the Suns-Warriors rematch - and rightly so as that game is far more compelling for an audience outside the LA area. But this game is still interesting from a betting perspective and I'm going to do something I don't do much anymore - recommend an over!

The Lakers should return LeBron James from COVID protocols and I expect Anthony Davis (currently questionable) to suit up for this one, too. The Lakers have underachieved badly the first six weeks and at some point, they know that they need to win some games against good teams and start climbing back up the standings.

The Clippers will have a fully-rested Paul George on the other side of things and should be equally motivated to right the ship as they have stumbled lately, too, going 3-7 over their last ten games to drop to 11-11 overall this year.

This game has the highest projected pace on the slate and if all the superstars are playing, I like the chances of both offenses getting back on track and being productive. Both of these teams have been considerably worse on defense this year than they were last year and should have a tough time keeping the opposing offenses in check. I'll take the over here, even if the model barely likes it, my big ole' gut says we see this game go well over this total.

The Pick: OVER 215.5 (good up to 217), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

Going to toss in some teams here who I think win at home for a ML parlay. I don't really love any of these spreads, but I think all four home teams come away victorious.

Warriors/Mavs/Jazz/Pacers ML Parlay (+215 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Andrew Heaney4 hours ago

Tosses Six Shutout Innings
Triston Casas4 hours ago

Launches Three-Run Homer
Jordan Lawlar4 hours ago

Records Another Multi-Hit Performance
Pete Crow-Armstrong4 hours ago

Homers, Steals Two Bases
Yanquiel Fernandez5 hours ago

With Another Multi-Homer Game
Reese Olson5 hours ago

Strikes Out Seven In Win
Jake Mangum5 hours ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly5 hours ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle5 hours ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone5 hours ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett5 hours ago

Joining The Titans
Allan Winans5 hours ago

Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday At Triple-A
5 hours ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders6 hours ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL6 hours ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
Marcelo Mayer6 hours ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints6 hours ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb6 hours ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens6 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice6 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
6 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson7 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB7 hours ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin7 hours ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez7 hours ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler7 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones8 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo8 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson8 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson8 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras8 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski9 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis9 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager9 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings9 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson9 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jake Fromm9 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Seattle Seahawks10 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions10 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell10 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski10 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford11 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.11 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum11 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart11 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI11 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha11 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers12 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen12 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg12 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane12 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog12 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos13 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans13 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons14 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys14 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints14 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
14 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.19 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander19 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman19 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam20 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo20 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges20 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA20 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle20 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland20 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić20 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy20 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard20 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale20 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens20 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate20 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard20 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares20 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout20 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen20 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia21 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young21 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov21 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk21 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen21 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli21 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi21 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg21 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane21 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard2 days ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF