Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/25/23)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/25/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props

Christmas Day is here and while it's a day of unwrapping presents and feasting on food for so many across our great nation - it's also a day filled with sports as the NBA has established a tradition of playing several featured matchups every year. The number of games on Christmas has grown to five games in recent years, starting at Noon and being played back-to-back all the way til the wee hours of the morning as the fifth game tips at 10:30 PM.

Covering the NBA on Christmas Day has always been a challenge for me since my kids were born, but I was able to carve out some time between Santa's arrival and the aftermath that will ensue to bring you my favorite NBA betting picks. Each year, I try to do at least one bet per game, so I will try to keep with that tradition today and drop at least four (couldn't find an angle on the Nuggets-Warriors, sorry) bets that I am making on these Christmas Day NBA games.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 12:00 PM EST on Friday, December 25. Follow me for more NBA bets and daily insights @ThunderDanDFS! Oh, and Merry Christmas to you and yours - and thanks for reading my work here at RotoBaller.

NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals

Philadelphia 76ers (+3) @ Miami Heat (225.5 total)

The big news here is that Embiid is out for the Sixers and that Jimmy "Buckets" Butler could miss for the Heat. That stinks for viewers on Xmas Day, but it levels the playing field quite a bit.

Joel Embiid, at the height of his powers, will miss out on the magic of NBA Christmas Day https://t.co/otOVZ4ECTY

— The Philadelphia Inquirer (@PhillyInquirer) December 25, 2023

Most importantly, it really hurts the defense of both teams, especially the Sixers. Philly tends to play faster without Embiid and I think we could see both teams get up and down a bit more than usual. This total is pretty low and based on the full season of data for both teams, so I am looking at the angle here to go against the trend with the two players set to miss making a huge difference on this game plays out.

We are going over 225.5 here, rather than picking a side.

The pick: OVER 225.5 total points (-112 DraftKings)

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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads

Milwaukee Bucks (-4) @ New York Knicks (241.5total)

These teams just played on Saturday with the Bucks prevailing 130-111 to move to 3-0 against the Knicks this season already. The closest the Knicks came to the Bucks was a five-point loss back in November, but that was before the Bucks were rolling along at full steam and while the Knicks were still playing some pretty good defense.

New York has lost their starting center and rim protector Mitchell Robinson for the season and will be without their backup center Jericho Sims, too. That leaves Isaiah Hartenstein, who is a talented offensive player and decent defender, but it really kills their depth and forces them to play Julius Randle at the five a bit, which is not ideal.

While New York was once near the top of the league in defensive rating earlier in the season, they have dropped to 14th in the NBA. I don't see how they're able to stop Giannis in the paint and Lillard has been playing well, too. Give me the Bucks to cover just a four-point spread on the road against a team they have shown they can handle.

How to Watch the Christmas NBA Games: Bucks-Knicks, Lakers-Celtics, and More https://t.co/4Bxaq7GOf3 #Wire #NBA pic.twitter.com/HvtuXWtoci

— Ron Bohning (@RonBohning) December 25, 2023

The Pick: Bucks -4 (-112 DraftKings)

Boston Celtics (-3) @ L.A. Lakers (234 total)

It's a matchup between the two best franchises in NBA history. And between two teams playing at a really high level right, now, too. The Celtics have been the class of the Eastern Conference so far as the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis have adapted seamlessly.

But the Lakers have looked really good at times, too, winning the in-season tournament and reminding everyone that LeBron and AD (when healthy) can still carry a team. The supporting cast in L.A. has been okay, but it's pretty clear they still need to figure out how they're going to use them and they probably still want to add someone before the deadline.

Anyway, back to this game. I think the Lakers can definitely hang with Boston here or even pull off an upset if LeBron or AD go nuclear and score 40+ points. Do I think that happens today? No, I like Boston to play some great team basketball on offense and to slow down the LA studs just enough to pull out a big win. Three points is nothing, I have Boston winning here by 5-6 points and I am taking yet another road favorite (gulp) here.

The Pick: Celtics -3 (-108 DraftKings)

Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) @ Phoenix Suns (236.5 total)

Dallas won't have Kyrie Irving, but they haven't had him now for several weeks and they will have their most important player - Luka Doncic today. Dante Exum has filled in admirably as the Robin to Luka's Batman and the rest of the Dallas bench guys can kick in enough I think to keep this close.

Durant and Booker haven't been all that good and Phoenix continues to miss Beal in their big three. I think Dallas hangs around and I am taking them with the points here. I don't think they can stop Luka.

The Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (-110 DraftKings)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite ML Parlay: MIL + BOS + DEN (+263 DK)

NO TEASER TODAY

Good luck if you tail these bets, and Merry Christmas!

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