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Day Five of the NBA is here and we have a decent-sized slate worth of NBA action on Saturday night. Every team has now played at least one game and we are ready to see if some of those opening game results were fluky or legit.
Obviously, we have teams playing on back-to-backs today, and perhaps that's something to take advantage of as players are still trying to get their legs under them after a long off-season. Let's take a look to see what kind of value this Saturday slate is providing us.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 1:00 PM EST on Saturday, November 4.
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Charlotte Hornets (+4.5) @ Indiana Pacers (236.5 total)
I'll start out in Indiana as the Pacers and Hornets square off. The Pacers won their opening game in the inaugural NBA in-season tournament last night, beating the Cavs 121-116. They're lined up for a back-to-back with the Hornets tonight, but at least they were able to sleep in their own homes last night.
The Hornets come into town, bringing an elite pace with them (106.4). While they rank third in the NBA in pace, the Pacers rank second (106.5). This game is going to move fast and the Hornets bring in a projected 117.43 offensive efficiency. On the other hand, the Pacers bring in a 115.73 projected offensive efficiency.
The Hornets cannot defend much at all, and I'll assume the Pacers will have tired legs in this one. This total seems like it's ridiculously high, but there's no surprise as to why that may be. I'll go with the over in this one.
The Pick: Game Total OVER 236.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Phoenix Suns (+4) @ Philadelphia Sixers (222 total)
I'll head to Philly for the matinee game of the day. The Suns come in following getting swept on a back-to-back with Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. They've been playing fast this season (103.8 pace), and bring in a 105.23 projected offensive efficiency.
They'll take on the Sixers who, under Nick Nurse, have surprisingly played a bit slower this season (101.5). They've been playing well on both sides of the ball, though, bringing a 117.00 offensive efficiency over their first four games and a 110.23 projected offensive efficiency rating into this game.
The Sixers have truly been a really good team through these first four games of the year, while the Suns are still finding their feet, and Bradley Beal remains out for this one. I'll back the Sixers on the money line at a fair price.
The pick: Sixers ML (-158, FanDuel)
Boston Celtics (-9.5) vs. Brooklyn Nets (230 total)
I'll wrap up my straight plays with the Celtics as they head into Brooklyn to take on the Nets.
The Celtics appear to clearly be the best team in the league right now. They are a fairly average-paced team (103.3). They come into this matchup ranked in the top ten of both offensive (122.6) and defensive (103.3) efficiency. While they may struggle relative to their season average on the defensive side of the ball, they project massive offensive numbers, bringing in an astounding 126.13 projected offensive efficiency.
The Nets have played pretty well to this point in the season, coming up with another win last night in Chicago by a score of 109-107. They actually rank fifth in offensive efficiency through the first week and a half of the season (115.2), while bringing in a 110.33 projected offensive efficiency. They do struggle on the defensive side of the ball and will have more than a handful to deal with against Boston.
The pure offensive efficiency numbers are enough to sway me toward Boston in this matchup, with the fact that Brooklyn lost an hour traveling over the last 24 hours and played a game last night somewhat being the icing on the cake. I'm backing the Celtics here.
The Pick: Celtics -9.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Favorite ML Parlay: PHI + BOS (+100, FD)
Favorite Teaser: Magic +8.5, Jazz +13, Under 221.5 Bulls/Nuggets
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