RADIO
It's been a whole week since my last Best Bets article and I have to apologize for being away for so long! Right now I am stretched pretty thin with the NFL playoffs heating up and a lot of my other responsibilities at RotoBaller demanding my attention. But ya'll know I love the NBA and I still play DFS and bet on it daily, even when I can't get around to getting an article out!
Today we have a really solid 9-game slate, with a lot fewer injury and COVID concerns than usual (I hope I didn't just jinx us). Just understand that I am making these picks in the morning and that things can happen during the course of the day that really affects game totals and spreads. Betting on the NBA is risky right now. I'm not saying we can't still do it successfully, just be aware of the risk.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, January 12th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 59-53
- Against the Spread 38-28
- Over/Under 19-22
- Other/Props 4-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (-3) @ Indiana Pacers (210.5 total)
This pick is a bit speculative so be warned. The Pacers have been hanging tough lately despite missing their entire starting backcourt and could get either Malcolm Brogdon or Caris LeVert back tonight for this game (or both). If we get even one of those guys back, it will be a big boon to Indiana as both guys are plus contributors on offense and defense.
Lance Stephenson, Torrey Craig, and two guys you never heard of until two weeks ago (Sykes and Washington Jr.) have filled in admirably and Indiana has leaned on star big man Domantas Sabonis a ton while being short-handed. Sabo crushed Boston on the boards in their last meeting just two days ago with 23 boards and posted 10 assists for a triple-double.
My theory is that is if Indy could play Boston to within three points on the road without their starting guards, they can surely cover (or win outright) tonight at home if they get one (or both) back. I'll take the Pacers at home here with the points and hope we get some good news that they'll have Brogdon or LeVert available for this one.
The Pick: Pacers +3 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Houston Rockets (+5.5) @ San Antonio Spurs @ (231 total)
I actually have the Spurs here by double-digits, but I knocked them down in my model a bit because of Derrick White and Keldon Johnson being out. The Rockets have been terrible lately as they've dropped three straight and are only 1-5 in the month of January. They've lost all five of those games by double-digits and now have the third-worst point differential this season at -8.9.
The Spurs are inconsistent and they've let us down a few times this year for sure. But they are a solid young team that can score the basketball, especially when their leader Dejounte Murray is on his game and facilitating to his teammates. They've dropped three in a row on a brutal road trip that saw them go 1-5 overall, but they've been banged up, too.
I look for the Spurs to put it on Houston at home here and 5.5 points aren't nearly enough. I would bet them all the way up to -7.5 and I probably will do that using alternate spreads for some solid odds.
The Pick: Spurs -5.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Brooklyn Nets (+2) @ Chicago Bulls (232.5 total)
We have one of the biggest differences here in the model that I have seen all year with this total a full 10 points higher than my model. I simply can't ignore that and I think Vegas is likely factoring in both teams' recent scores more than my model does which could explain the big disparity.
This is just ALOT of points for an NBA game this year and while scoring has started to go back up recently across the league this total feels inflated. The Nets might be without Harden tonight and are already without Aldridge for sure. Kyrie and Durant will surely get buckets but the rest of their squad isn't exactly loaded with scorers.
Despite having a talented trio of scorers in LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic, the Bulls would rather win ugly and often do as they prefer to play in the half-court instead of pushing the tempo.
I've been burned in the past by both teams on some unders, but I have to follow the data and it suggests that even if both teams have been scoring more lately, this total is simply too high. Consider that their first two meetings this season finished with 215 and 218 points and it seems like a stretch that all of a sudden they are scoring 15 more points than they did in those contests tonight.
The Pick: UNDER 232.5 (good down to 230) -110 DK Sportsbook
BONUS PICK: Bulls -2 (+105)
No Parlays today!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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