Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (1/5/24)

After only two games on Thursday, we have a huge 14-game slate tonight. The new year is off and running, and as football is winding down, basketball starts to heat up.

To keep it brief, I didn't have my finest moment Wednesday night. I will try to right the ship and get back on track tonight.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, January 5. Follow me on Twitter/X, @Jwiesel13. I hope it's a great year for all of us, and thank you as always for reading!

NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads

New York Knicks (+6.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (228 total)

The Knicks are 2-0 since acquiring OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors. They beat the Timberwolves on New Year's Day and the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night.

What I love about the Knicks is their improved defense since the trade. New York had a 123.6 defensive rating in December. That was the worst in the NBA, with the Charlotte Hornets coming in second to last at 123.1. In the two goes with OG, the Knicks' defensive rating is 107.9. This is something that feels sustainable, which is why I like their defensive profile going forward.

Philadelphia is one of the best offensive teams in the league, so the Knicks will have their work cut out for them. In their last two games, the Knicks have limited opponents to 82.5 field goal attempts, a 44.2 field goal percentage, and 103.0 points.

This will be a big test for them. Joel Embiid is having a monster season, and the Sixers are 13-4 at home ATS. New York is a very respectable 10-10 ATS on the road.

Tom Thibodeau's team has done a good job limiting points in the paint in their last two games. This is something that will be critical against a player like Embiid.

Knicks forward Julius Randle is playing phenomenal basketball lately, and I like the vibes on this Knicks team. They should be able to get up for a rival and continue playing good basketball.

The Pick: Knicks +6.5 (-115 BetMGM)

Atlanta Hawks (+3) @ Indiana Pacers (261.5 total)

This should be a high-scoring affair.

Rather than mess with a total, I'm going to back the Pacers in the first quarter at home.

Both of these teams are coming off first quarter victories on Wednesday night. I see a lot of similarities between these two teams, but the Hawks' numbers naturally dip on the road.

In State Farm Arena, Atlanta is averaging 32.9 points, which is the best among home teams. They make 52.2 percent of their field goal attempts and shoot 44.7 percent from three on 10.1 attempts. On the road, their points per game go down to 30.2 points. That may not sound like a lot, but their field goal percentage also drops to 47.1 percent. From three, that 44.7 percent number at home dips to 38.8 in the other team's arena. That is still a great three-point percentage, but against this Pacers offense, that may put them behind.

On Wednesday night, the Hawks led the Thunder 39-25 after the first quarter. Atlanta jumped out to a 11-0 start, which isn't something they can bank on tonight. The Hawks shot 4/10 on threes and 7/11 inside the arc. They also attempted 12 free throws, which is a ton. For context, the Sixers are first in first quarter free throw attempts at 6.3 per game. Indiana is giving up 4.2 FTA per game in the first quarter at home, which is in the top 12 for lowest among home teams.

The Pacers are averaging 32.0 points in the first quarter at home. They are also shooting 50.7 percent on field goal attempts and 40.5 percent from three on 10.5 attempts.

Neither of these teams should brag about their defense, and both give up around the same amount of points.

That should leave it up to the offenses, and I trust Tyrese Haliburton & Co. at home to get it done.

The pick: Pacers First Quarter ML  (-128 FanDuel)

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Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (234.5 total)

The Brooklyn Nets have been on a skid recently, losing five straight games. Their most recent loss came in Houston on Wednesday night, losing 112-101 to the Rockets.

Oklahoma City also comes into this game off of a loss. They lost 141-138 in Atlanta on Wednesday night.

I do think this Nets team is a little better than their recent performance has shown. Now they are back at home after four games on the road.

I can't trust this team to cover the full game, but I'll take them in the first half. On Wednesday, Brooklyn was only down 59-58 after two quarters of play. When these teams played on December 31 in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were up 59-56 at halftime.

The Nets are hitting a decent amount of threes per half at home, so that is always encouraging. They are also among the best rebounding teams in the league, and they don't turn it over a lot.

When it comes to points in the paint, Brooklyn is in the top three in the NBA, limiting those opportunities. That should bode well against a Thunder team that is in the top 10 for PITP in the first half. The Nets are also near the top of the league in limiting points off turnovers.

Nets guard Cam Thomas is coming off a 0/7 shooting game. He will probably come out more aggressively to start this game.

Three-point shooting, holding onto the ball, and controlling the glass will be key for the Nets.

The Pick: Nets First Half +3.5 (-115 FanDuel)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite Teaser: NYK +12 - MEM +10.5 - MIA +10 (+140 FD)

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