Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (4/27/24)

The 2024 NBA playoffs are underway and the first round rolls on. Today, there are four games on the schedule. Paolo Banchero and the Magic will kick things off, looking to even the series at home. The Thunder will push to take a commanding 3-0 series lead in New Orleans. Boston looks to bounce back after an awful Game 2 loss at home to Miami. The day ends with LeBron trying to avoid a sweep against the Denver Nuggets for the second straight season. Wall-to-wall NBA coverage and it should be a great day of hoops!

Last night, I went 1-2. The Pacers crushed the Bucks in the first-quarter to get myself an early victory. Unfortunately, the Clippers aren’t a serious team and didn’t even come close to hitting their team total. The Suns also didn’t cover the first half and after a nice early victory, the other two failed. It’s a new day, hopefully, this time it goes differently.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 1:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday, April 27. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.

NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads

Cleveland Cavaliers (+2) at Orlando Magic (201.5 total)

The Magic inserted themselves back into this series in Game 3 by absolutely smashing the Cavaliers. They got off to a good start and led 61-to-45 at halftime. After a 35-to-16 third-quarter run, the game was completely out of reach going into the fourth quarter. I envisioned this as a long series before it started and I like Orlando to win again.

Paolo Banchero & Co. shot the ball well, hitting 51.1 percent of their FGAs. In that 61-point first half, they attempted 49 field goals and 21 three-pointers. I found this notable because, in the first two games, Orlando averaged 40 FGAs and 17.5 three-pointers. They only hit 35 percent of those FGAs and an abysmal 20 percent from deep. The Magic went 5-for-7 at the line in the first half of Game 3, compared to averaging 14.5 FTAs in the first two. Orlando likes to get to the line but their offense had a much better flow without stopping for foul shot breaks.

Cleveland hit 41.9 percent of its 43 first-half FGAs and shot 3-for-18 from three. I guess now they know how Orlando felt in the previous two games.

Jamahl Mosley's team was 29-12 (30-12, including playoffs) at home this season, the sixth-best record in the NBA. This team played differently in front of their home crowd and finished with an 18-23 record (18-25, including playoffs) on the road. The scoring outburst was unconventional but they did score 110 or more points in 25 home games this season.

On defense, the Magic held opponents to 105 points per game in the Kia Center. Along with holding the opposition to low shooting percentages, Orlando also allowed the fewest rebounds and assists. In Games 1 and 2, Cleveland out-rebounded the Magic 102-to-81. In Game 3, Orlando won that category 51-to-32 and also held a 22-to-9 advantage in second-chance points.

The scrappy Orlando Magic showed everyone last game why they shouldn't give up on them yet. I'm not going to.

he’s that dude pic.twitter.com/nlUVN4XyZG

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) April 26, 2024

The Pick: Magic ML  (-130 DraftKings)

Boston Celtics (+9) at Miami Heat (204 total)

I know most people are likely expecting the Celtics to bounce back and win big here. That very well could be true but Miami is tough and I don't want to play the big spread. I do really like the Celtics to cover the first quarter. I normally don't love taking a quarter spread above 2.5-points but I just couldn't ignore this number.

In Game 1, the Celtics led 26-to-21 after the first quarter. The next game saw them down 28-to-27 after 12 minutes of play on Wednesday. Miami shot 8-for-15 from three in the opening quarter of Game 2 and was only leading by one. Boston hit 47.8 percent of its FGAs and only two of eight three-point attempts. Over the first two games of this series, the Celtics are averaging 26.5 points while shooting 42.9 percent on FGAs and 30.8 percent from three.

Boston was the best first-quarter team ATS this season, finishing with a 51-32-1 record. Coming off that bad loss, I would hope we see a more aggressive Celtics team to start this game. In the regular season, they held teams to an NBA-low 44.1 field goal percentage and 33.2 three point percentage in the opening quarter. On offense, they scored an NBA-best 31.6 points while finishing in the top five for field goal and three-point percentage.

Originally, I was leaning toward Miami in the first quarter but I just don't think they will shoot that well again from three. They also need Boston to shoot below average, and, likely, the Celtics play closer to their average here.

Time to adjust and get ready for Game 3. pic.twitter.com/aQNRGlmeL9

— Boston Celtics (@celtics) April 25, 2024

The Pick: Celtics First Quarter -3 (-112 DraftKings)

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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1) at New Orleans Pelicans (208.5 total)

This is another first-quarter play for me and I'm taking the Pelicans. New Orleans got blown out in Game 2 and got off to a poor start. They now return to Smoothie King Center, where they were 22-18-1 ATS in the first quarter in the regular season. Overall, they were 49-34-3, the third-best record in the NBA. The Pelicans won the opening quarter against the Lakers in their first play-in game and narrowly lost to the Kings in the second. Against the Thunder, the score was tied at 17, and in Game 2, OKC held a 35-to-22 advantage.

I think New Orleans will bring some juice to this game and get off to a better start. They are missing the 5.4 PPG Zion averaged in the first, but they have other players that need to step up. Brandon Ingram led the team this season with 6.5 PPG. In the playoffs, he's scored six total in the first quarter. CJ McCollum has only scored four points but averaged 5.8 points at home. Trey Murphy has somehow scored zero points in 23 minutes; he's bound to score some baskets today. Jonas Valanciunas scored 11 of the Pelican's 22 first quarter points in Game 2. New Orleans needs to keep exploiting that matchup, as Jonas has shown flashes of overpowering Chet Holmgren.

For the Thunder, Chet has averaged nine points and SGA is scoring eight per game. They haven't gotten much help and New Orleans knows who to ship their defensive attention to. I've always liked how much size and length this Pelicans team has and I would take them to win this game if I were choosing a side.

Oklahoma City finished with a -1.6 net rating in the opening quarter on the road this season. The Thunder finished 11 in offensive rating and 19 in defensive rating. They were 18–23 ATS and gave up a lot of rebounds, resulting in second-chance opportunities. New Orleans is averaging 14 first-quarter rebounds compared to OKC's 11. The Pelicans should have an extra pep in their step playing in front of the home crowd, I like them to win the quarter.

yeah B pic.twitter.com/NwrrmhOF9K

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) April 25, 2024

The Pick: Pelicans First Quarter -1 (-112 DraftKings)

*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines. 

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