Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (3/7/24)

I'm back with NBA picks after taking Wednesday off. I didn't love the slate yesterday and opted to stay away rather than forcing it. Tonight's seven-game slate looks a lot more appealing, and hopefully we can find some winners.

It looks like I really needed the All-Star break to refresh, as I've come out hot since. I'm 8-0 in my last eight picks and 12-2 since the NBA returned. On Tuesday, I hit both the team total unders for the Hornets and Raptors, and the Rockets were able to cover the 7.5 point spread at home against the Spurs. I've been liking the team total picks and will continue to experiment with them tonight.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday, March 7. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.

NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5) at Indiana Pacers (229.5 total)

Speaking of the team totals, I'm going to make a play against the highest-scoring team in the NBA. Indiana comes into this game after putting up 137 points in a 137-120 victory in Dallas. They hit 50-of-93 (54%) FGA, 18-of-39 (46%) three-pointers, and 19-of-24 free throws. It was a dominant performance from a Pacers team that can be unstoppable when things are clicking.

At home, the Pacers have averaged 126.3 points on 51.5 percent field-goal shooting and 39.6 percent from three. Indiana is also making about 17 free throws per game and nearly 82 percent from the line. Their offensive numbers have been impressive, for sure, but I like their team total under here. Indiana scoring 137 on Tuesday is a lot of points, but they also put up 133 against Dallas on February 25.

The Timberwolves are a bit of a tougher test defensively. Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the NBA this season. I look at this matchup similarly to when the Pacers played the Pelicans in New Orleans on Friday, March 1.

Indiana was held to 102 points in a revenge spot for the Pelicans after the Pacers beat New Orleans 123-114 in Indiana on January 28. Tyrese Haliburton was held to zero points on March 1. That very likely won't happen tonight, but Minnesota does have some excellent defenders in Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They also have Defensive Player of the Year favorite Rudy Gobert patrolling down low.

As much as I like this Pacers squad, Minnesota is holding opponents to 86.5 FGA per game, and they are only hitting 46.3 percent of them. The Timberwolves are small favorites and play with a bottom-10 pace in the NBA. The line indicates Minnesota will dictate the pace of this game, and I'll take my chances with them having a strong defensive effort.

great team win. 👏 pic.twitter.com/nQYlBpUUcs

— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) March 5, 2024

The Pick: Pacers Team Total Under 115.5   (-120 DraftKings)

Miami Heat (+5) at Dallas Mavericks (228.5 total)

Building off the Pacers' big game in Dallas on Tuesday, I'm taking the over here. I just don't think Dallas is good on defense, and they are very good on offense. At home, the Mavericks are a top-eight scoring team, putting up over 120 points per game. They also shoot over 48 percent on FGA and 38.5 percent on threes. Only five teams average more free throws at home than the Mavericks. Dallas is 23rd in defensive rating this season and gives up an average of 118.3 points per game.

Miami has been very good defensively this season, but I give the edge to the Dallas offense. The Mavericks are nice favorites, and I think they will play their style, which is scoring the ball. Dallas is top 10 in pace and has been playing even faster since the trade deadline. The Heat are capable of scoring the ball and have put up 118 and 126 points in consecutive games against the Jazz and Pistons. Dallas fits the same defensive mold as those two teams, so Miami should have offensive success.

With 39 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists tonight, Luka Dončić recorded the third ever instance in NBA history a player has had a 30-point triple-double in four straight games.

He joins Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook as the only players in NBA history to have done so. pic.twitter.com/Z0yd8RGecY

— Mavs PR (@MavsPR) March 6, 2024

The Pick: Over 228.5 (-115 ESPN BET)

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Brooklyn Nets (-2.5) at Detroit Pistons (218.5 total)

After the Nets got a nice win against the Sixers in Brooklyn on Tuesday night, I'm fading them to start this game. Brooklyn has been my first quarter darlings when they play in the Barclays Center this season. On the road, it's been a different story. The Nets are 23-10-1 ATS in the first quarter at home and 9-19 on the road.

Detroit has been solid this season at home, covering the first-quarter spread. They are 15-13-1 and 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Pistons haven't been great on defense to start games, but Brooklyn's road offense also isn't good. In six February road games, the Nets averaged 25.2 points on 43.1 percent field-goal shooting. From three, they shot 34.5 percent on 9.7 attempts. Brooklyn also only averaged 1.3 free throws in the first quarter of those six games.

Meanwhile, Detroit has averaged 29 points on 51.7 percent field-goal percentage in their last four home games. The Nets give up 28.9 points on the road compared to 26 at home. According to FantasyPros, Brooklyn has struggled with defending point guards this season. That should open the game up for Pistons point guard Cade Cunningham to have a quick start.

It feels like we're at the point in the season where you kind of know who teams are. The Nets have not gotten off to good starts on the road. Let's root for that to happen again tonight.

Cade droppin' dimes tonight pic.twitter.com/dblwfoODfT

— Detroit Pistons (@DetroitPistons) March 6, 2024

The Pick: Pistons First Quarter +0.5  (-102 FanDuel)

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