Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (3/18/24)

Happy Monday, RotoBallers! Welcome to the start of a new week. The NBA season keeps moving along, and we are about 80 percent done with the regular season. Tonight, we have seven games on the schedule.

I went 1-2 on my picks yesterday, and I am looking for some redemption. The Suns and Spurs both failed to win the first quarter of their games, causing the losing record. My win came with the Raptors only scoring 96 points and going under their team total of 103.5. I have another low team total that I like tonight. Despite the losing night, I'm still 23-13 since the All-Star break.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Monday, March 18. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.

NBA Betting Picks: Totals

New York Knicks (+5) at Golden State Warriors (211 total)

The Knicks have been ridiculous on defense lately, holding teams to 87.7 points in their last three games. In the three games since OG Anunoby returned, opponents have shot 37.8 percent on FGA's and 28.2 percent from three.

With that being said, I like the over here and think the total is too low. The Knicks haven't been great on offense, but they have still put up 98, 105, and 106 in their last three. With each team needing an average of 106.5, I think it is very doable for a Knicks team that has shot 28.7 percent from the three-point line in this sample. Golden State just gave up 121 points to the Lakers on Saturday night.

The Warriors put up 128 points in Stephen Curry's return, and I really liked the way they looked. Golden State shot 53 percent on 97 FGAs and 41 percent on 34 three-pointers. It was nice to see they went 12/15 at the line, so it's not like they had 25+ free throw attempts. I think this performance is repeatable, and the Knicks' defense has been a little too good that it's likely they'll show some regression. Curry being back raised the play of his teammates, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Draymond had six points, 12 rebounds, and 13 assists, while Klay had 26 on an efficient 9-of-15 shooting. This team has averaged 118.4 points per game this season, and I think both sides will bring some offense tonight.

*OG Anunoby is questionable to play tonight. I still like the over, and if he is out, the Warriors could have more success on offense.

31 PTS | 6 REB | 5 AST

Stephen put on a show in his return 📽️ pic.twitter.com/sspY1xxvIx

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 17, 2024

The Pick: Over 211 (-110 PointsBet)

Portland Trail Blazers (+7.5) at Chicago Bulls (213.5 total)

I'm taking the Blazers team total under in this game. I'm never quite sure who is lacing it up for Portland on a game-to-game basis, so I'll fade them here. In their last four games, the Blazers have averaged 101.3 points on 45.4 percent field goal shooting and 34.7 percent from three. This team hasn't exactly been an offensive juggernaut this season, ranking 28th in offensive rating. Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu should also take turns guarding Portland's best scoring option, Anfernee Simons.

Chicago only allowed 98 points to the Washington Wizards on Saturday. I know it's the Wizards, but Washington has actually averaged a decent amount of points this season, more than Portland. In that game, the Wizards shot 43 percent on 84 FGAs. They only hit 13-of-22 FTAs, but they also hit 13-of-32 three-pointers. The Bull's defense hasn't been good lately, so maybe the game Saturday night reinvigorates them a bit. They are the best team at limiting points in the paint, and they are in the top five in limiting fast break points. Neither team plays at a fast pace, either. I like the Bulls' defense to play well here.

Bounce back win at home 💪@Plus500 | #SeeRed pic.twitter.com/PxS4HmmmVm

— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) March 17, 2024

The Pick: Blazers Team Total Under 103.5 (-120 ESPN BET)

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 Memphis Grizzlies (+11) at Sacramento Kings (221 total)

Desmond Bane returned for the Grizzlies on Saturday night after a two-month absence. The Grizzlies shooting guard tallied 22 points and seven assists in 31 minutes. It was encouraging to see him play for 31 minutes and also put up a good performance. Bane being back obviously makes this Grizzlies team significantly better. Against a fast-paced team like the Kings, I don't love Bane or the Grizzlies' full-game outlook, but I do really like them to cover the first quarter.

In their game against the Thunder on Saturday night, they easily covered the first quarter when it was tied at 27. Bane played eight minutes in the first quarter and scored six points. Jaren Jackson Jr. is playing well to open games, scoring 7.3 points and playing 10.3 first-quarter minutes in his last nine games. Memphis has been a solid first-quarter team defensively all season, holding opponents to 27.5 points per game, making them a top-ten squad. They are in the top five in limiting FGAs, which will be important against a Kings team that loves to get out and run.

My last memory of a Kings' first quarter was when they won 22-21 against the Knicks on Saturday night. The Kings hit 8-for-20 (40%) FGAs and two of their eight three-point attempts. Memphis has been good enough defensively, and I just think they are so much better with Bane.

look at this. just watch. pic.twitter.com/uL0yi8waAk

— Memphis Grizzlies (@memgrizz) March 17, 2024

The Pick: Grizzlies First Quarter +3.5  (-110 ESPN BET)

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