Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (3/11/24)

Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope you enjoyed your weekends and watched some basketball. We have a smaller six-game slate to look at tonight. Make sure you monitor player injury news, as there are some key players questionable tonight. It makes things a little tricky, but I'll try my best to find some winners.

Yesterday, I went 2-1 on my picks. The Kings made it a sweat but were able to cover the first half against the Rockets. The Pelicans showed up on defense and were able to hold the Hawks under their team total. I've been riding the New Orleans defense, and sadly, they don't play tonight. My only loss came when the Pacers didn't cover the first quarter against the Magic. I was happy with a 2-1 day, and I'm 18-5 in my last 23 games since the All-Star break.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Monday, March 11. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.

NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML

 Dallas Mavericks (-4.5) at Chicago Bulls (233 total)

I'm going to take the Mavericks in the first half here. Dallas is only 14-16 ATS in the first half on the road this season, but I like their chances tonight. The Mavericks are averaging 60.6 points in the first half since the All-Star break. Dallas has shot 49.6 percent on FGA's and 37.6 percent from three. Chicago is a poor offensive team, and they have averaged 55.8 first-half points in the nine games since the All-Star break. The Bulls are shooting under 46 percent on FGA's and under 36 percent from three.

I don't love the idea of taking a bad offensive team against Luka Doncic. Luka has been on a first-half offensive tear since the All-Star break. He's averaging 21.2 points, 5.4 assists, and 4 rebounds while also shooting over 55 percent on FGA's and 49 percent from three. The Mavericks superstar is also averaging 19 first-half minutes during this stretch, which I love to see. Chicago will try to defend Luka with Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu, but Luka is Luka and has a height advantage over both of them.

Dallas has had the worst first-half defense since the All-Star break. I would be more concerned if they were playing a better offensive team. Opponents have shot 49.9 percent on field goals and 39.7 percent from three in those nine games. What I find slightly encouraging is that Dallas is not dead-last in opponent percentage or even shot attempts. Teams had been putting up 46.3 first-half FGA's, which tied the Mavericks for 20th. The 49.9 percent they are shooting puts the Mavs 25th. I think Dallas can also get lazy on defense, knowing they can score on the other end. This team has been ranked eighth in first-half offensive rating since the All-Star break.

Check out our Top 🖐️ Plays of the Week!@att // #MFFL pic.twitter.com/UKcR5zjIse

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 11, 2024

The Pick: Mavericks First Half -1.5 (-118 FanDuel)

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NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Charlotte Hornets (+3.5) at Detroit Pistons (216.5 total)

I've gone 6-0 in my last six team total under picks. Tonight, I like the Pistons under against the Hornets. When most people see the Charlotte Hornets pop up, they probably assume they stink at defense because of their record. The objective is to score more points than the other team, and the Hornets have only done that in 16 of 64 games. This team actually has a defensive edge.

Since the All-Star break, the Hornets have played ten games. In those ten games, they have held opponents to 106.2 points, making them a top-five defensive unit. Opponents are only hitting 45.3 percent on FGA's and 31.8 percent from three. The 31.8 percent from three is the best defensive mark of any team over the last ten games. Better than the Celtics, Timberwolves, Heat, and Nuggets, the four other teams that round out the top five.

Detroit has continued to shoot poorly since coming out of the break. They are averaging 109.2 points on 46.3 field-goal shooting and 35.3 percent from three. They have averaged 121 points in their last two home games, but in one game they had 118 with 20 free throws, and on Saturday against Dallas, they scored 124 with 21 free throws. Detroit can get to the line, but that's not always a given, and the Hornets are only allowing 17.5 free throw attempts in their last ten games. If the Hornets can take away the three-point and foul lines from the Pistons, it could be a long game for them. Charlotte is 12th in defensive rating in their last ten games, and they are also in the top ten in steals per game.

Blocked by Bridges 🚫#LetsFly35 | @ArrowExt pic.twitter.com/O7r9zDswCn

— Charlotte Hornets (@hornets) March 10, 2024

The Pick: Pistons Team Total Under 110.5 (-115 FanDuel)

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