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After a five-game slate on Thursday, we have a seven-game slate tonight to look at. There are two marquee nationally televised games that you can watch on ESPN. The first will feature Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets going to Boston to try to end the Celtics' home winning streak. Fans can watch LeBron James and Anthony Davis take on the Brooklyn Nets in the late game.
I've been on a bit of a skid recently, but I like tonight's slate and think it can be a good night. Let's get into the games!
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Friday, January 19. Follow me on Twitter/X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
San Antonio Spurs (+4) at Charlotte Hornets (236.5 total)
With Victor Wembanyama already ruled out for this game, I love the Hornets here.
Wemby had 26 points and 11 rebounds when the Spurs crushed the Hornets 135-99 in San Antonio on Friday, January 12. The Spurs are 0-5 this season without Wembanyama and have an average losing margin of 13 points.
The Hornets have a slew of their own problems, but they did recently get LaMelo Ball back. Ball has been struggling with efficiency as he works his way back. Before getting hurt, he was in the middle of a great stretch of basketball in November.
This is a great spot for a Hornets team to pick up a home win and cover. San Antonio has a 117.6 defensive rating with Wembanyama this season. In the five games he's missed, that drops to 126.7. A 126.7 defensive rating would be the worst in the NBA by a wide margin.
In the three games since LaMelo has come back, Charlotte is 0-3 and giving up 123.7 points per game. That looks awful, but opponents are hitting 50.4 percent of their field goals and shooting over 49 percent from three. I would consider defense a huge concern, but I just don't see the Spurs lighting it up like that tonight.
LaMelo, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges should be able to end their six-game skid and cover at home tonight.
The Pick: Hornets -4 (-110 DraftKings)
Phoenix Suns (+2.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (234.5 total)
According to EV Analytics, the New Orleans Pelicans are 15-5-1, covering the first half spread at home this season.
That is where my lean is in this game.
The Pelicans are only allowing 51.7 first-half points at home, which is second behind the New York Knicks.
In January, the Suns are averaging slightly more points than the Pelicans. New Orleans is shooting better on field goals and hitting more threes at an efficient clip.
The Pelicans' first half plus/minus is +5.1, while Phoenix is a flat 0.0.
New Orleans has hosted three games to start the new year and is only giving up 50.3 points in the opening 24 minutes.
When picking a team for the first half, I always factor in who's coming off the bench. I just like the depth New Orleans provides compared to Phoenix. The Pelicans also have bigger forwards like Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy III, and Naji Marshall, who can attempt to slow down Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal.
If this can turn into a lower-scoring, physical first half, I like Willie Green's squad to come out ahead.
Even if there is a lot of scoring, the Pelicans come into this game off of hitting a franchise record 25 three-pointers on Wednesday night.
The Pick: Pelicans First Half ML (-124 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) at Miami Heat (233.5 total)
Similar to my reasoning for taking the Pelicans, I'm going to take the Heat at home in the first half.
EV Analytics has the Heat at 13-6 this season, covering the first half spread at home. They are also 4-1 in their last five.
Miami comes into this game off of getting smacked by the Toronto Raptors. The Heat fell behind 41-18 and the game was really over after that.
Back home, Miami is just outside the top 10 in first half scoring. More importantly, they are top-five in field goal percentage, hitting over 50 percent of their attempts. They don't hit as many threes as other teams but are shooting a very efficient 43.9 percent from deep.
When it comes to defense, only the New Orleans Pelicans give up fewer first half points. This is a Heat team that is allowing a low 43.6 field goal attempts in the opening 24 minutes. The Hawks average 47.8 FGA and 61.8 points, so Miami dictating pace will be big. Miami does a good job limiting fast break points. This will be key against a Hawks team that loves to run.
Just like I pointed out with New Orleans against Phoenix, if this turns into a scoring match, I do believe the Heat can keep pace.
Jimmy Butler is also playing his first home game in a month. He should be amped up and ready to go.
The Pick: Heat First Half -3.5 (-112 FanDuel)
Favorite ML Parlay: CHA + LAL (+113 FD)
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