RADIO
After only three games yesterday, we have a larger 10-game slate tonight to look at. I hope you all had a nice MLK weekend. Let's get into the action!
In my last article on Friday, I went 1-2. I started the new year out hot but have gone 2-4 in my last two articles. It's a long season, and there will be good and bad stretches. I still like to believe I'll come out with a winning record over the long term, so it's a process.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, January 17. Follow me on Twitter/X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Orlando Magic (+3) at Atlanta Hawks (236.5 total)
Both of these teams come into this game off of wins on MLK Day. The Hawks built a huge early lead against the Spurs that they almost saw vanish. Ultimately, Atlanta held on for a 109-99 victory. Orlando went into Madison Square Garden and used a late push to surprisingly flip the game and steal a win. I'm targeting the Hawks early in this game. According to Ev Analytics, Atlanta is 8-2 ATS at home in the first quarter of their last ten games.
These teams matched up on January 7 in Orlando, with the Magic winning the opening stanza 32-28. Orlando shot 6-for-9 from three in that quarter. This is a big red flag given that the Magic are only averaging 2.6 threes per game in the first quarter. On the road, they are shooting 30.5 percent from deep. That's way off from the 66.6 percent they shot on January 7.
They are also only shooting 45.0 percent on field goal attempts. The 21.8 FGA average is near the bottom of the league. Low FGA and inefficient offenses are never a good recipe.
Not that three-point shooting is everything, but that same January 7 night in Orlando, Atlanta only shot 2-for-6 from three in the opening 12 minutes. That is uncharacteristic for a Hawks team that averages 4.2 threes per game. I like the Hawks to come out strong.
The Pick: Hawks First Quarter -0.5 (-120 Sports Illustrated Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (238 total)
Cleveland and Milwaukee come into this game on winning streaks. The Cavs have won five in a row, while the Bucks are winners of their last three. These teams are a bit different in how they approach the game. Milwaukee is a high-powered offensive team that is second in the NBA in scoring, putting up 125.0 points per game. Where they struggle is on defense, only ranking 19th in defensive rating and 24th in opponent points per game.
Cleveland is built on defense. They are giving up the third-fewest points per game; however, they are only 21st in scoring. I do believe Milwaukee is the better team, so I think they will dictate the way this game is played. That would fall more on the offensive side, where they have the edge.
On defense, Milwaukee is allowing 94.9 field goal attempts, which is the most in the league. The Cavs are only attempting 88.1 field goals per game, which works in Milwaukee's favor. The Bucks also have a surprisingly decent three-point defense. Opponents are only making 11.9 threes per game, which means the Bucks have a top-seven three-point defense. Cleveland is making around 13.0 threes per game; hopefully, the Bucks can slow that down.
Milwaukee has been really good on catch-and-shoot attempts this season. This is something that could greatly work in their favor, as they are putting up points. If the Cavs are struggling to score and then have to exert energy on defense chasing around good ball movement, they'll eventually tire out.
I also feel good about having Giannis and Damian Lillard.
The Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-110 PointsBet)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Golden State Warriors (+4.5) at Utah Jazz ( total)
Things have not looked great for the Warriors recently. A loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in Memphis on Monday dropped them to 18-22 this season. Conversely, the Utah Jazz are playing great basketball. Utah has won six in a row and nine of their last ten. I don't like a full-game pick but I'll ride with the Warriors in the first half. This team is desperate and Utah is due for a regression at some point.
According to EV Analytics, Golden State is 7-3 ATS in the first half on the road in their last ten games. The Warriors give up fewer points than the Jazz and shoot it slightly better. Draymond Green returned from his suspension in the Memphis game and it's always hard getting re-implemented in your first game. Now that he got that out of the way, I think he'll look more comfortable tonight.
Teams are shooting 64.5 percent against the Warriors on defended field goals. Utah is shooting 51.1 percent on field goals when guarded by 2-4 feet. That's worse than the league average and the Warriors could frustrate them by defending close.
Utah is a bottom-five three-point defense in the opening 24 minutes of games. I like this spot for Stephen Curry and the Warriors.
The Pick: Warriors First Half +2.5 (-110 ESPN Bet)
Favorite Teaser: CHA +17.5 - GSW +10 (+100 FD)
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