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What's going on RotoBallers? John Brubaker here for my installment of FREE MLB Player Props. I've been on a bit of a roll on the side/total side of things on the books, but today we'll be looking at some props. We have a great slate to pick from today, as all 30 teams will be taking the field. Let's get right to it.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, September 30, 2023. Without any further ado, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Luis Castillo OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-125, DK) vs. TEX
I'll start the slate off with Luis Castillo's strikeout prop. Castillo has turned the strikeouts up in his last four starts, striking out eight in four straight. He brings in a 30.2% strikeout rate over the last two weeks and takes on a Rangers lineup that strikes out a ton. Over the last 30 days, the Rangers bring in a 27.5% strikeout rate. Castillo projects to a 31.73% strikeout rate tonight, as well as a projection of 8.88 strikeouts.
Joan Adon OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-105, DK) vs. ATL
An interesting one here, as I normally wouldn't place a bet against the Braves. Adon comes into this one with a 19.5% strikeout rate across the entirety of 2023, but that number slightly increased to 20.8% over the last two weeks. Atlanta's strikeout rate has risen from 24.6% over the course of 2023 to 27.3% over the last two weeks and 29.4% over the last seven days. Atlanta does not have much to play for at this point, and my model projects Adon to a 21.68% strikeout rate and 4.23 strikeouts today.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ronald Acuna OVER 1.5 TB (-155, FD) vs. WSH
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Acuna made history this week, becoming the first player in MLB history to have a season with 40 or more homers and 70 or more stolen bases. He'll take on Joan Adon, a pitcher he surprisingly hasn't faced. Adon comes into this one with a projected 5.13 SIERA. Acuna brings in a .535 wOBA over the last seven days and brings in a projected .434 wOBA and 2.46 total bases in this one.
Max Muncy OVER 1.5 TB (+115, FD) vs. SF
I'll wrap things up today with Max Muncy's total bases prop. Muncy has been smashing baseballs lately, bringing in a .480 wOBA and 58.3% hard contact rate over the last week. He'll take on Tristan Beck, who comes into this one with a projected 6.39 SIERA. Muncy is 1-2 with a single off of Beck, but projects to a .374 wOBA against him today. He also projects to 2.01 total bases and is my final total base prop of the day.
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