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What's going on RotoBallers? John Brubaker here for my installment of FREE MLB Player Props. I've been on a bit of a roll on the side/total side of things on the books, but today we'll be looking at some props. We have a great slate to pick from today, as all 30 teams will be taking the field. Let's get right to it.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, September 16, 2023. Without any further ado, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tanner Bibee OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-165, DK) vs. TEX
I'll start the slate off with Tanner Bibee. Bibee has been rather consistent in terms of striking hitters out in 2023. Here's how his splits break down: 24.3% (2023), 27.4% (L30), 25.5% (L14). He'll take on a Rangers lineup that has been similarily consistent in terms of strikeouts, with a strikeout rate of 28.9% over the last week. Bibee projects to a 27.4% strikeout rate against them today and 6.1 strikeouts.
Corbin Burnes UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-145, DK) vs. WSH
Corbin Burnes has really turned things around of late. He's dropped his SIERA from 4.06 over the course of 2023 all the way down to 3.12 over the last two weeks. He'll take on a Nationals lineup that has been among the worst in terms of wOBA this season (.302), and even worse of late, coming in with a .252 wOBA over the last week -- the second-lowest mark in the league only behind the Nationals. My model projects Burnes to a 3.29 SIERA today and just 1.13 earned runs.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 TB (-150, FD) vs. STL
After tweaking his lower half in the early stages of last night's game, I'm really hoping Harper plays in this one. Harper sees Mikolas exceptionally well, coming into tonight's matchup 4-10 with a double and a homer against the St. Louis righty. Beyond this, Harper has been smoking the ball lately, and I'll look for him to take advantage of Mikolas who brings in a poor 6.07 SIERA over the last two weeks. My model projects Harper to a .492 wOBA and 2.41 total bases tonight, should he be in the lineup here.
Max Kepler OVER 1.5 TB (-105, FD) vs. CWS
I wrapped things up with Max Muncy last week, but this week it'll be a different Max: Kepler. Kepler has been crushing the ball lately, bringing in a .501 wOBA over the last two weeks and .570 wOBA in the last week. He'll take on Touki Toussaint, who's pitched to a not-terrible 4.76 SIERA over the last two weeks. Nevertheless, he still brings in a 5.38 SIERA over the course of 2023, and projects to a 5.14 SIERA tonight. Kepler projects to a .404 wOBA and 2.06 total bases, according to my model.
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