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What's going on RotoBallers? John Brubaker here for my installment of FREE MLB Player Props, BACK for the Division Series Playoffs. While the majority of my time has now shifted to NFL, I'm still keeping tabs on the MLB Postseason, going 5-2 in the Wild Card round across a myriad of bets ranging from money lines to total bases. Today we'll be looking at props, with two pitching and two hitting props as all four series open up.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, October 7, 2023. Without any further ado, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kyle Bradish OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105, DK) vs. TEX
I'll start things off with Kyle Bradish. Bradish did not hit this number in either of his final two starts, racking up four strikeouts against the Nationals back on September 26 and five strikeouts against the Red Sox on the final day of the season. However, Bradish threw just two innings in that final game against the Red Sox, striking out five of the seven batters he faced. He now takes on the Rangers, who finished the season at a 24% strikeout rate. Bradish projects to a 30.43% strikeout rate tonight and 6.39 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly Under 16.5 Outs (-160, FD) vs. LAD
I'll take a look at Merrill Kelly next. Kelly had been relatively consistent in going OVER this number in 2023, hitting the over at a 70% clip (21/30). He hit it in 2/4 starts against the Dodgers this season, but there needs to be some context here. Kelly has started 19 games against the Dodgers in his career. In those 19 games, Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA. I took a look at the Dodgers who have at least 11 at-bats against Kelly, and there's only ONE player that comes to a wOBA under .332. That would be Enrique Hernandez. My model projects Kelly to record 15.27 outs today, which sounds a bit right. With hooks shorter in the playoffs, I'd be shocked if Kelly pitches in the sixth inning.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ronald Acuna OVER 1.5 TB (+105, FD) vs. PHI
For the record, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" still applies come playoff time. Ronald Acuna, the likely NL MVP, had nothing short of a monster season, and absolutely terrifies me in this series as a Phillies fan. He'll take on Ranger Suarez in Game 1, a pitcher he's relatively struggled against, coming into this 3-14 off the southpaw with two singles and a double. Suarez had a relatively down season in 2023 and had multiple stints on the IL. While I think he pitches fairly well in this game, I think Acuna gets to him on the first pitch in the bottom of the first. My model projects Acuna to have 1.77 total bases today.
Max Muncy OVER 1.5 TB (-155, DK) vs. ARI
I'll wrap things up today with Max Muncy's total bases prop. I suppose you can either play hits or total bases here, but either way, I think we're getting strong value here. I mentioned earlier how Merrill Kelly struggles against the Dodgers, and Muncy leads that pack with a .478 wOBA against the righty. He's 14-40 against Kelly; with nine singles, four doubles, and a homer. Muncy projects to a whopping 1.98 total bases today.
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