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Happy Cinco de Mayo, RotoBallers! We have a strong Sunday slate on tap with an abundance of prop picks to select from. In this article, I will break down several plays that are worth taking a shot on. I will be here each and every Friday and Sunday throughout the season to break down pitcher and hitter props.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, May 5, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @LucidMediaDFS
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Hunter Brown OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
I'll start today's slate with a strikeout play down in Houston as Hunter Brown takes the ball for the Astros.
The Good: Brown has been, if nothing else, striking guys out at a decent number over his last two starts. He enters tonight following a six-strikeout performance at Washington on April 21 and a seven-strikeout performance Tuesday night against Cleveland. This raises his strikeout rate to 33.3% over the last two weeks, and the Mariners rank third in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in 2023 (28.3%). My model projects him to log 6.31 strikeouts tonight.
Hunter Brown, 99mph ⛽️ (home plate view) pic.twitter.com/4GtinVcDKo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 20, 2023
The Bad: Besides those strikeouts in his last two starts, Brown hasn't left much else to be desired. To trust a guy with a 9.78 ERA to go deep enough into a game to toss six strikeouts feels like a lot, but it is worth noting he's been quite unlucky, as noted by his 4.22 xFIP.
I'll trust my model here, and I think we're getting great value on this number on DraftKings. There's still talent in Hunter Brown, and it's about time he arrived for the 2024 season.
Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-146, FanDuel)
I'll head west to the City of Angels for my second play of the day as we look at the under on Max Fried's strikeout prop.
The Good: The Dodgers have been a top-ten team against left-handed pitching in 2024. Not only do they rank ninth in wRC+ (112), but they also rank 23rd in strikeout rate (18.6%). It'll be a tough matchup for Fried, who has bounced back after a slow start to the season. My model projects Fried to log just 4.95 strikeouts tonight.
The Bad: Essentially the antithesis to Hunter Brown, Fried has logged back-to-back games with six and seven strikeouts, albeit against Miami and Seattle, respectively. He's also shown relative success against this Dodgers' projected starting lineup.
Once again we're backing the model here, and I'm willing to drink a bit of juice here, as most other sites have this line north of -160.
Logan Webb UNDER 6.5 Hits Allowed (-135, BetMGM)
We'll have to wait a bit for our final pitching prop of the night, as we'll grab the under on Logan Webb's hits prop tonight on Sunday Night Baseball.
The Good: Frankly, the best part of this prop is the line. Webb has been good this season, bringing in a 2.98 ERA into this one across his first seven starts. He's not allowing very much hard contact, either, bringing in a 24.6% hard contact rate which is quite below his 2023 number of 32.5%. My model projects Webb to allow just 5.5 hits tonight.
The Bad: Despite Webb pitching well to begin the 2024 season, he is regressing relative to his 2023 numbers. His 2.98 ERA is due to regress given his 4.44 xERA and 3.23 xFIP, both numbers a bit higher than what he finished in 2023 (3.63 xERA, 2.95 xFIP). He's also taking on a scorching-hot Phillies lineup that's won eight of their last nine and brought in a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which ranks fifth in the Majors.
Fortunately for Webb, it's uncertain whether the Phillies two best hitters will be in the lineup tonight. We know that Trea Turner will miss roughly six weeks with a hamstring issue, and the reigning NL player of the week Alec Bohm left last night's game with hip flexor tightness. I know Webb offers distance in all of his starts, but I don't see him allowing more than six hits in tonight's start.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Marcell Ozuna OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)
We'll head back to Los Angeles for my first hitting prop of the day, we'll take a look at Marcell Ozuna's total bases prop to start things off.
The Good: Ozuna has gotten off to a scorching start this season. He's seeing the ball from lefties extremely well, bringing in a .364 batting average against southpaws. He also projects to a strong .501 wOBA today. James Paxton has also gotten extremely lucky this season, with his 3.51 ERA being overshadowed by a 6.16 xERA and 6.23 xFIP. Given Atlanta's success as a team against left-handed pitching, this could be Paxton's blowup game. My model also projects Ozuna to 2.18 total bases this afternoon.
Your @MLB RBI leader: Marcell Ozuna!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/ktkMweJswz
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) April 27, 2024
The Bad: You could also note that Ozuna's ISO is 70 points higher against righties (.312) than lefties (.242), and he hasn't eclipsed 1.5 total bases in his last six games. If you'd prefer to get a bit more nitpicky, I could use the old cliche "you are what your numbers say you are" when referring to Paxton's 3.51 ERA.
I think this is the perfect storm of both Ozuna and Paxton regressing to the mean, and at -105, this number is a steal for Ozuna's bases.
Travis d'Arnaud OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105, DraftKings)
We'll stay out in LA and look to somewhat of a "stack" with our hitter props here, taking a stab at Travis d'Arnaud's bases.
The Good: The season that d'Arnaud is having to this point is a testament to what the Braves are: a deep roster that is very good. d'Arnaud has been excellent filling in for the injured Sean Murphy and draws a terrific matchup today. He brings in a .429 batting average and 1.429 slugging percentage in eight plate appearances against Paxton since 2019, is hitting .438 against lefties this season, and a projected .624 wOBA. He projects to 2.02 H+R+RBI today.
The Bad: The previously mentioned "you are what your numbers say you are" adage with Paxton. However, if you're going to roll with my "perfect storm" take regarding this game today, partnered with the Braves trying to avoid a sweep, I think this is a great play.
We're getting an excellent number on this line on DraftKings, and this is probably my favorite play on today's slate.
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