Free MLB Player Props - Today's Prop Betting Picks for May 3, 2024

We have a strong Friday slate on tap with an abundance of prop picks to select from. In this article, I will break down several plays that are worth taking a shot on. I will be here each and every Friday and Sunday throughout the season to break down pitcher and hitter props.

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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, May 3, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @LucidMediaDFS

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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Yusei Kikuchi OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-146, FanDuel)

I'll start today's slate with a strikeout play in our Nation's Capitol. Kikuchi has made six starts this season, though he's cleared this number only three times. He'll take on a Nationals lineup that lies in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers at a 21.3% clip. Kikuchi brings in just a 14% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, but his 2024 numbers hover around the 27% mark. My model projects him to grab 6.15 strikeouts in this one, though. This number is at 5.5 on most books, but I'll grab it at the 4.5 number, which we can get on FanDuel.

Yusei Kikuchi's 2nd and 3rd Ks. pic.twitter.com/f2YQKYjve1

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 23, 2024

Hunter Greene OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-146, FanDuel)

I'll look at a second strikeout prop next, this time from a guy whom I faced personally back in summer 2013. Hunter Greene was only throwing in the lower-to-mid 80s back then, which doesn't sound as impressive until you realize he was only 13 years old. Similar to Kikuchi, Greene has made six starts this season and has cleared this number in half of them. However, in the three starts he went under, he logged six strikeouts. His 28.7% strikeout rate over the first month of the season blends well with an Orioles lineup that has struck out 25% of the time over the last seven days. My model projects Greene to log 7.23 strikeouts tonight, which I believe is good value at this number.

Tanner Houck UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145, BetMGM)

I'll wrap things up on the pitcher side today with Tanner Houck. It's a bit of strength against strength here, as Houck has had a great start to the season, but the Twins have been soaring over the last two weeks. I'll back Houck here, given his projected 2.72 xFIP coming into today's game. The Twins project to regress off of their last 14 days' numbers when it comes to wOBA, from .378 down to .313 against the righty. My model projects Houck to 4.99 hits allowed tonight.

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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Ozzie Albies OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120, DraftKings)

We have a fun matchup out on the West Coast this evening, as the two favorites in the National League do battle. I'll look at one particular player here in Ozzie Albies. Albies had a short IL stint in the middle of April, but has since come back and has come back with a vengeance. Since the injury, Albies has logged at least two total bases in five of six games. He projects an impressive .465 wOBA against Gavin Stone, who projects to a 4.66 xFIP. My model has Albies totaling 2.09 total bases in this one.

Juan Soto OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115, DraftKings)

I'll wrap things up today with Juan Soto and the Yankees. The Yankees will take on Reese Olson and the Tigers this afternoon. Olson has had an xFIP that's hovered around 4.00 all season, which isn't horrible, but I expect the Bronx Bombers to get to him today. Soto has cleared this number in 21 of 33 games this season, including seven of his last 10. He comes in 2-2 with a walk against Olson in his career, and my model projects him to 2.25 Hits + Runs + RBI in this one.

Juan Soto crushes one 447 feet! 😳 pic.twitter.com/CKDFNrjYrY

— MLB (@MLB) May 1, 2024

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