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What's going on RotoBallers? John Brubaker here for my first installment of FREE MLB Player Props. After taking some time to myself on Sunday I absolutely smashed Monday's slate, and am looking to keep the momentum going into tonight's slate. We have a great slate to pick from today, as all 30 teams will be taking the field. Let's get right to it.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, May 2, 2023. Without any further ado, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Matt Strahm OVER 5.5K (+106, FD) vs. LAD
I'll start tonight's slate off with Matt Strahm. Strahm has been on a heater to start off the 2023 season. For a guy who's seen far more success out of the bullpen throughout the majority of his career, Strahm has put the Phillies in a tough position in regards to what they're going to do when Ranger Suarez reenters the fold.
Nevertheless, my model loves Strahm's strikeout prop tonight, largely due to his rapid start to the season. He's bringing in a strikeout percentage of 36% and has a beauty of a matchup in L.A. this evening against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 25th in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching (27.2%). My model projects Strahm to a 29.69% strikeout rate and 6.48 punchies tonight.
Graham Ashcraft UNDER 4.5K (-145, DK) vs. SD
I'll take a look at an under next, with Graham Ashcraft's strikeouts popping on my data model. I think Ashcraft is absolutely filthy, but I think he may have some of what I call "Dustin May syndrome" here early in his career, with just a small lack of a putaway pitch. This will develop over time, but it's why I'm looking at the under tonight.
Ashcraft brings in a strikeout rate of just 19.5% into this one, and while he does have a chance to pump those numbers up against a Padres lineup that ranks 28th in strikeout rate (26%) against righties, my model does not seem to think so. It gives Ashcraft a projected 14.84% strikeout rate in this showdown, projecting him to end his night with 3.27.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Brandon Drury OVER 0.5 TB (-185, DK) vs. STL
To start hitters off, I'll take a look at Brandon Drury. Drury's had a really slow start to 2023, bringing in a .234 average, .314 wOBA, and 98 wRC+. While his strikeout rate is through the roof relative to his career numbers, he gets a shot to turn it around tonight against southpaw Steven Matz.
Drury has played in four games against Matz in his career and has been very successful to this point. He's 5-11 in those four games with a double and a home run. My data model doesn't account for previous matchups against a pitcher, but it's about on par with these numbers. Drury projects to a .409 wOBA and 2.15 total bases in this one.
Anthony Santander OVER 1.5 TB (+115, DK) vs. KC
We've been put in a classic "bounce back spot" here with Santander, who came close to hitting our prop last week but lined out on a near 100mph liner to right field to end the game. He finished with one total base in that one, but we'll see if he can get "over the hump" for us tonight against Ryan Yarbrough.
Yarbrough is another familiar face for Santander, who's played in ten games against the lefty. He's just 6-22 with four doubles against the former Tampa Bay Ray, but if last week is any indication, previous matchups or "BvP" aren't necessarily anything but a cherry on top for me. I'll prefer to look at the model projections here, and Santader projects to a .388 wOBA and 2.08 total bases in tonight's matchup.
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