Free MLB Player Props - Today's Prop Betting Picks for Hitters and Pitchers (9/29/23)

We're set for our final Friday night slate of the regular season, which always brings some uncertainty when it comes to pitcher props. There are a number of different scenarios at play with pitchers on teams with their postseason positioning in place, and some rookie arms that could also be on pitch counts at this point in the season. Consequently, I've tilted heavily toward hitter props tonight and will look to add one other later in the day once the game for that player is on the board at sportsbooks.

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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, September 29, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!

MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Cal Quantrill  OVER 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+102 BetRivers Sportsbook)

This prop could turn out to be one of the best value ones of the night for pitchers given the aforementioned uncertainty regarding the workload of many arms at this stage of the season.

Quantrill is a quality pitcher who's simply had a rough year, but he's been looking much more like himself down the stretch as the Guardians wrap up a non-contending season. The right-hander has pitched to 1.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 0.7 HR/9 across the 27.2 innings covering his last five starts, and the Rays, Giants and Orioles have notably been among his opponents in that stretch.

Quantrill's strikeout rate is at a career-low 13.1 percent this season, but he's recorded over 3.5 strikeouts twice over the aforementioned last five outings. His Friday night opponent, the Tigers, could very well coax another such performance out of him, as they've posted a 26.4 percent strikeout rate against righties in the last month.

Unlike pitchers on contending teams, Quantrill should have no specific workload limitations in place Friday, putting this prop in play at a great price.

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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-130 Bet365 Sportsbook) or To Hit A HR (+400 BetRivers Sportsbook)

Judge is running hot with his power stroke, and he's facing a right-hander in Jordan Lyles he's already enjoyed plenty of success against before and that's already allowed 38 homers across 30 starts.

It's, therefore, an excellent opportunity to take a swing at a total bases prop, but to also consider an HR prop at a price that's higher than every other sportsbook by a good bit. Judge also owns a .375 average with four extra-base hits (including two homers) against Lyles in 16 career encounters, and Lyles has yielded half of those 38 homers to right-handed bats.

Aaron Judge visits the second deck for his second homer of the game. 😤 pic.twitter.com/R18DECFjV8

— MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2023

Michael Conforto  OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-170 Bet365 Sportsbook) or To Hit A HR (+925 Bet365 Sportsbook)

Conforto's total base prop is at 0.5 everywhere I checked and therefore carries some fairly heavy juice, so I'm also highlighting the HR prop at the very other end of the odds spectrum.

Either one can be considered for the veteran lefty slugger against the Dodgers' Lance Lynn, who's been in much better form of late but who's had plenty of trouble keeping the ball in the park all season. Lynn has surrendered a jaw-dropping 43 homers across 31 starts, even allowing one apiece during a current three-start stretch where he's pitched to a 2-0 record and solid 3.50 ERA.

Conforto has tormented Lynn to the tune of a .444 average with a double, a homer and only one strikeout in 12 career plate appearances. Lynn has also yielded a .298 average, 43 extra-base hits (including 24 homers) and a .392 wOBA to the 388 left-handed batters he's faced this season, while Conforto has hit 12 of his 15 homers on the season off right-handed pitching and has a solid .336 wOBA against that handedness at home.

Michael Conforto gives the Giants a lead with two outs in the 8th inning. He got this hit off of RHP Robert Suarez instead of the Padres bringing in Josh Hader for the final four outs pic.twitter.com/T54nw1fhSX

— MLB Dramatics (@MLBDramatics) September 26, 2023

Ramon Laureano OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+145 Bet365 Sportsbook)

Laureano isn't having a strong year at the plate by any stretch, but he's got some pop in his bat and is facing a vulnerable left-handed pitcher, which puts the veteran outfielder in play. Laureano has hit southpaws well during his career and holds a .279 average and .344 wOBA against that handedness this season.

Meanwhile, Tigers starting southpaw Joey Wentz sports a 3-12 record, 6.45 ERA and 1.62 WHIP overall, and he's allowed a .321 average and .412 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his home park, where he carries a 7.38 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 2.2 HR/9 across 50 innings.  A total of 41 of the 97 hits Wentz has conceded to righty bats this season have gone for extra bases as well, furthering the chances for this prop.

Jorge Polanco OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI  (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The switch-hitting Polanco is at Coors Field on Friday night and facing a hittable left-hander, making him an intriguing option. Minnesota is also projected for the second-highest run total of the night at 6.5, which adds further fuel to this prop in particular.

Polanco has been at his best hitting from the right side, producing a .310 average, .356 wOBA and 52 hits + runs + RBI in just 88 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching this season. The veteran is averaging 2.1 hits + runs + RBI per game overall on the season, while Rockies starter Ty Blach has conceded a massive .382 batting average and .390 wOBA to right-handed hitters at Coors Field.

Polanco has the ability to cash this prop with a single swing given his power -- he's belted 14 homers in 340 plate appearances -- and should have ample opportunities to either score or drive in runs throughout the night thanks to the environment and the talented hitters around him.

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