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I love Tuesday baseball as we have all teams in action and we can usually expect most teams' normal lineups without a bunch of Sunday substitutions or guys resting on getaway days. As the leaves begin to fall off the trees, the number of days left in the regular season dwindles so let's hit some MLB player props while we still can (although we will continue to bet on the playoff games, too, of course!) Today is all about the pitchers, as you probably already know - these are my favorite props to bet on in baseball!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
All odds are on FanDuel today, mainly because DK's book was down this morning while I was trying to research my bets!
Luis Castillo OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-108 FanDuel)
Let's start with our biggest number first and...surprise - we are going over all of these pitchers today on their K props.
Castillo has the right combination of stats that I am looking for as he comes into this start in excellent form (8 strikeouts in consecutive starts) and gets one of the best matchups for strikeouts that a righty can have (Oakland 27% K% to RHP over the last month).
Luis Castillo ⛽️⛽️
4th and 5th Ks. pic.twitter.com/JrLWHVIhKL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 13, 2023
The lineup for Oakland probably looked a good bit different back in May, but Castillo struck out 8 Athletics in his only other meeting with them this season, pitching six scoreless frames for a win. He's equally good against RHH and LHH, so I am not too concerned with which hitters the A's roll out there. The projected lineup for Oakland has just two hitters with K-rates under 24% (Tony Kemp leading off and Nick Allen hitting 9th).
Taj Bradley OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-102 FanDuel)
Next up is the talented Tampa rookie, Taj Bradley. While Bradley can struggle with run prevention (and he has lately, allowing four earned runs in two straight starts), his strikeout prowess is undeniable. He whiffed seven Twins in his last start without making it out of the fourth inning and now has 19 strikeouts in 16 innings since he rejoined the rotation in September.
The Angels, like Oakland, have a 27% K% against RHP over the last 30 days and the lineup they are rolling out right now is pretty gross. The rookie Nolan Schanuel is leading off and followed by David Fletcher, another good contact hitter. And then it's nothing but free swingers. Jared Walsh has a 36% K% this season against RHP since returning and we even have a Brett Phillips sighting (52% K% in 42 at bats against RHP - yikes!). I like Bradley for seven strikeouts today in this matchup, especially at close to even odds.
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More MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Yusei Kikuchi OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-120 FanDuel)
It's time to talk about the lefties that we like today and we will start with Kikuchi who takes on the Yankees in New York. Sorry Yankee fans, but I have enjoyed watching this team faceplant this season because, well, if you aren't a Yankees fan you are supposed to hate the Yankees, right? In all seriousness, New York is second only to Oakland in K% against LHP over the last month at 26.4%. That's rough and one of the reasons that I will continue to aggressively target them with good strikeout pitchers.
Yusei Kikuchi's 2Ks in the 3rd. pic.twitter.com/fx88YTHZVt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 13, 2023
I would call Kikuchi just that - a GOOD strikeout pitcher. He finally had a bad start against Texas his last time out and whiffed just three Rangers, but before that he had six or more strikeouts in six consecutive starts. I look for him to bounce back today and do some work against this Yankees lineup. If he is careful with Judge and Stanton, there aren't many others to worry about.
Logan Allen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-113 DraftKings)
Our final pitcher we are targeting is another lefty and a guy who despite his solid stretch of starts lately isn't getting enough respect from the books here as his number is still set at 4.5. Allen has had a promising rookie campaign for Cleveland and gets to face a Kansas City team that is experimenting with some younger players this time of year and mixing up their lineup. I have respect for this Royals team, they are pesky and I don't target them nearly as much lately as I did earlier in the season. But the recent numbers (25% K% over the last month to LHP) suggest they are still a plus matchup for Allen here.
Allen has faced them twice this season and whiffed five in each start. He also has five or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts. This one will be close, because Allen isn't a big power arm or anything like that - and he sits at just a 22% K% on the season (which is right around league average). He will have to limit the walks and get through a few clean innings early so that he doesn't run up the pitch count, but if we get 5-6 innings from him today, I like his chances at keeping his 5+ strikeout streak going.
Alright, good luck, my friends -- let's cash some bets! Good luck, and thanks for reading!
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