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Sundays in September are still loaded with MLB games, don't let the NFL distract you from betting on baseball! If you are reading this today, you are either a die-hard MLB fan or a total degenerate gambler. Either way -- I am just happy that you care (even just a little) about who I want to wager on today.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, September 17, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Hyun-Jin Ryu OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings)
In the time it took me to go make some more iced coffee and come back to finalize this article, this prop moved from over 3.5 (-165) to over 4.5 (+120). That's okay if you missed the low number because Ryu is going to strike out five or more Red Sox today anyway!
The veteran lefty has five or more strikeouts now in four of his last five starts and has pitched really well for Toronto since returning in August from an injury that kept him out over half the season.
Today, he has the best matchup for any LHP in terms of strikeout potential when we sort by strikeout rates over the last 30 days. Yes, the Red Sox are whiffing the most (28.5%) of any team against lefties over the last month and this has been a great matchup to target now for a while if you haven't been paying attention!
Ryu will have to be efficient as he doesn't pitch more than five innings often. At the same time, he has only gone under that five-inning mark once in eight starts this season.
Dylan Cease OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
I would grab this one quickly because, like the Ryu prop, it's one that I am expecting to move up here this morning as well. The books know that we love targeting the Twins with right-handed strikeout pitchers and so they usually adjust the props accordingly. Perhaps it's Cease's somewhat sketchy track record that is keeping this number down. I am willing to overlook that for now as he's shown that even in a down year (by his standards), he is still a guy who can rack up strikeouts in bunches.
The last time Cease faced these Twins in July, he struck out nine of them. He has been trending back up in terms of strikeouts lately, having hit this prop in four of his last six games (he had six strikeouts in the other two where he narrowly just missed).
Minnesota has the third-highest strikeout rate against RHP over the last month at 26.9%.
PARLAY: Dakota Hudson OVER 1.5 walks + Zack Littell UNDER 1.5 walks (+135 DraftKings)
I will never recommend props individually that are up around -180 or -190, but I do like pairing them together in parlays. Hudson has been very wild lately, issuing two or more walks in five straight starts (15 total walks over his last 27 innings). Littell has yet to walk more than one hitter in any of his nine starts since entering the Tampa rotation.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
Here is your BvP play of the day! Bryce Harper is hitting...wait for it....an incredible .857 off Hudson in 10 plate appearances. That's a super small sample size, but I am impressed nonetheless. His six hits are comprised of three singles, two doubles, and a home run. He's whiffed just once and walked three times.
Walks are the only real thing I am concerned with here as Hudson has been wild (we are betting on it), but Harper crushes righties and Hudson allows a ton of contact. I think he can cash this prop with one swing today and get an extra-base hit.
Ronny Mauricio OVER 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-120 DraftKings)
If you are a depressed Mets fan (are there any other types of Mets fans), then the one thing you have to be a little bit excited about for the future is how well this kid has played since coming up.
The young switch-hitter is batting .302 and has only failed to get on base in two of his first 12 games in the majors. He has hit this prop in three of his last four games and faces Brandon Williamson, a lefty from Cincinnati today.
Mauricio maintains the platoon advantage against any right-handed relievers as he is a switch hitter and his speed on the base paths (five steals already) means he can put himself into scoring position even after drawing a walk or just a single. I am riding the hot bat (and feet) of this talented rookie to get us there today.
Alright, good luck, my friends -- let's cash some bets!
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