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Welcome back to more MLB props and bets for this Monday, August 7. I don't usually cover this article on Mondays, but I find myself covering for other writers quite a bit during the summer months as everyone tries to pack in some summer vacation time. Heck, I am on vacation right now at the beach but my laptop usually makes the trip with me!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, August 7, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. We did okay yesterday with two of four pitching props hitting (Tyler Glasnow was a push as he was scratched) and we hit our TJ Friedl total base prop as he homered (as did Joey Votto, the other Red I liked). Let's see if we can keep it going today with some high-powered arms taking the hill.
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Spencer Strider OVER 9.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings)
We probably won't see Spencer Strider at 8.5 strikeouts the rest of the season with how well he is pitching right now. I bet on him over 9.5 Ks in his last start and he came up just one short against the Angels but still pitched masterfully.
He now has 9+ strikeouts in eight straight starts, which is amazing. I think he can get 10 today and my projections actually have him for 11 against the struggling Pirates.
Pittsburgh has gone with the full youth movement late in the season and that means a lot of high-strikeout young hitters in this lineup. Strider could have a field day with these inexperienced batters and I expect him to dominate.
Gerrit Cole OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
We go from one ace in a great matchup to another in a pretty darn good one, too. Gerrit Cole gets the reeling White Sox as his opponent today. This team has been a hot mess since the trade deadline. They managed to take two of three against the Guardians as they saw Cleveland's worst starters (Xzavion Curry -- a Triple-A fill-in and Noah Syndergaard -- who they apparently can't fix).
But the Texas starting pitcher trio of Dunning-Scherzer-Heaney obliterated the White Sox in the series prior, combining for 31 strikeouts in that series.
The White Sox K% is climbing and Cole comes into this one in good form, having racked up eight strikeouts against Tampa Bay and going 8+ now in three of his last four.
Cole Ragans OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
With all of these aces on the hill with big K prop numbers, I want to take a shot on a low number here with a guy who could be ready to emerge as a legit major league starter in Cole Ragans.
The Royals have given him a shot at a rotation spot and he's made the most of it so far. He pitched five effective innings against the Rays and then went out and shut out the Mets over six frames with eight strikeouts!
His underlying numbers (although a pretty small sample size) have been pretty good, too. He's striking out 25% of the righties he's facing and Boston could end up putting 6-7 righties out there in the lineup tonight. That 25% strikeout rate to righties is backed by a 13.8% SwStr%, too.
He throws 95 mph on his four-seamer with three other pitches (curveball, cutter, changeup) that all have a CSW% of 34% or better. I am betting on talent here, even if the matchup isn't all that ideal. Although we have seen Boston's strikeout rate against LHP creep up over the most recent 30-day sample (24%).
Freddy Peralta to record a win (+105 DraftKings)
The books have been much quicker to move the strikeout prop lines up for surging pitchers (or down for struggling pitchers) in the second half of the season. Freddy Peralta's prop is set to 8.5 with plus money on the over. While it's tempting, I'm not going there because Peralta can often end up with a high pitch count early in games if he's not being efficient.
I'm also off his outs prop at 17.5 with a bunch of juice on the over. But I like this bet at plus money for him to pick up the win. Colorado has been bad against RHP all season, but much worse since the deadline without C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. And I think the Brewers' offense can get him enough run support off Peter Lambert for Peralta to leave this game with a lead after five or six innings. We just need that Brewer bullpen to close the deal!
Other K props that my model favors (all at plus odds, but definitely riskier bets than my top three)
Pablo Lopez OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
Logan Webb OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+125 DraftKings)
Eury Perez OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
This is a bet based on a combination of stats that will drive some analysts mad. Not only is Nick Castellanos the "hottest" hitter on the Phillies with a seven-game hit streak and three home runs in that stretch, but he has some very impressive BvP against Trevor Williams.
He's 11-28 lifetime against Williams, which is good for a .393 average. He has four doubles and two home runs against Williams with one of those homers coming earlier this season. He's faced him in two games this year, going 3-6 with a home run. It's pretty clear to me that he sees the ball pretty well out of Williams' hand for whatever reason.
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