Free MLB Player Props - Today's Prop Betting Picks for Hitters and Pitchers (7/4/23)

2 years ago by Dan Palyo

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Happy Fourth of July, RotoBallers, and Happy Birthday, America! Though as a history teacher, I have to wonder - was America truly conceived on July 4th when our founding fathers declared their independence from Britain? Or was it truly born long before that in the minds of many colonists? And technically, we didn't gain our independence until the British signed the Treaty of Paris a full seven years later, signifying that they would finally acknowledge our sovereignty as a nation. But you didn't come here for a history lesson, did you? You came for baseball bets and what's more American than baseball AND betting on Independence Day?

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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. I even tossed in a third bonus hitting prop today for a total of six props!

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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Shohei Ohtani OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings)

I am not sure how much analysis is needed here, but I suppose it's my job to do it anyway. Ohtani has been just on another planet lately both in his hitting and pitching and yet this K prop is still set at 7.5 with nearly no juice attached to it. He has 10 and 12 strikeouts in his last two starts and the best K% of any starter toeing the rubber today.

100 mph for Shohei Ohtani's 11th strikeout of the night. pic.twitter.com/YuNkJLzTOr

— MLB (@MLB) June 22, 2023

Yes, the Padres made some noise last night with 10 runs against the Angels in the series opener, but Ohtani has the stuff to silence even the best of lineups, it's that simple. San Diego is also the same team that struck out 10 times against Andrew Abbott just a few days earlier, let's not forget.

Logan Gilbert OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-120 DraftKings)

I love this series for strikeouts on both sides as the Giants and Mariners are both K-heavy lineups. We saw both pitchers go over their numbers last night (I had recommended them both, too, so hooray) as Logan Webb had 11 strikeouts against the Mariners, and the Seattle rookie, Bryan Woo, finished with seven.

Gilbert has been slumping a bit when it comes to strikeouts, but he still has a strong overall mark on the season and I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt based on his larger volume of work. The Giants lost Thairo Estrada to injury last night, too, which means they have one less low-K% guy in the lineup now and he's going to likely be replaced by Brett Wisely and his 26% K% against RHP this season.

Tarik Skubal OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)

This is by far the riskiest of the three K props today, but I can't help but want to get out in front of my guy Skubal in a great spot for him in his 2023 debut. Skubal has been an above-average strikeout pitcher in his young career and gets a very K-prone Oakland team here today. Skubal had a 35% strikeout rate in the minors while doing his rehab work and while that doesn't span too many innings, it shows that he has command of all his pitches and is ready to go right out of the gate.

We are always worried about pitch counts, but I think it's reasonable to assume that Skubal could be given a 75-80 pitch leash here by his manager and that his stuff is good enough for him to get 6+ strikeouts even if he only ends up working five innings. He wasn't walking anyone in the minors before coming up, either, which hopefully means he can be efficient with his pitches today.

If you are looking for a safer third K prop then my two honorable mentions would be Chris Bassitt over 4.5K (-150) and Zach Eflin over 5.5K (-105).

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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Anthony Santander OVER 1.5 total bases (-105)

Santander had been one of the hottest hitters in baseball until last week when he finally cooled off. But he's still making plenty of hard contact and I think we are likely to see him pick things back up rather quickly. He had two hits last night against the Yankees, including a double. Tonight he faces Clarke Schmidt, who has struggled mightily against lefties this season with a .387 wOBA allowed.

Schmidt throws his sweeper and cutter mainly to lefties and Santander's numbers against both pitches check out for me. I like his chances of ripping an extra-base hit off Schmidt in this matchup.

Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 total bases (+100)

Sometimes you uncover something during your research that sticks in your brain for a long time going forward. A long time ago, I started targeting Yelich against ground ball pitchers because of his tendency to hit fly balls as a product of his uppercut swing. And then when I started doing hitter profiles using batted ball data vs. specific pitch types, it became even more clear that Yelich was a really good hitter against sinkers and changeups - two pitches with a downward trajectory.

Well, Kyle Hendricks throws those two pitches almost exclusively as he doesn't have a fastball anymore and never had much of a slider. Yelich is certainly familiar with Hendricks as both have played in the same division now for a while. Right now, Yelich is in the midst of some excellent production.

This is your daily reminder that Christian Yelich is an all-star pic.twitter.com/ZHJoe7cf1D

— Tapping The Keg Sports (@TappingTheKeg) July 1, 2023

Last night he went 3-4 in the series opener with a triple and he homered just two nights ago in Pittsburgh. I love the way things line up today in this matchup and I also love betting on lead-off hitters who are likely to get 4-5 chances at the plate to hit their prop.

Brandon Nimmo OVER 1.5 total bases (+105)

I was at first looking at his hits/runs/RBI prop, but that's set all the way up at -170 today and I'm not paying that juice. Nimmo is an excellent contact hitter and does a great job of getting on base. I think the Mets will find some success with the bats today against the very hittable Zach Davies and the odds of Nimmo making some solid contact are very good with Davies carrying just a 14% K% against lefties.

Nimmo can get there with multiple hits or an extra-base hit and he's had a recent power surge from the plate lately, homering four times over his last six games. His profile matches up nicely against the sinker/changeup combo that Davies throws primarily lefties. The BvP is solid, though a small sample size (3-6 with two doubles).

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