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Happy Father's Day to all you dads out there! Being a father of two girls is unquestionably the best thing that's ever happened to me and I am so thankful to have been blessed with the opportunity to do one of the most important jobs in the world -- be a dad! I lost my own dad here now almost two years ago and I wish I could watch a ball game with him today, but I will settle for watching with my girls instead and trying to teach them a little about this game that I love. Okay, enough mushy stuff, let's talk baseball prop bets for today's action.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, June 18, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ronel Blanco UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings)
At first glance, it appears that Robel Blanco is a pretty decent pitcher as he's carrying an ERA under 4.00 and striking out over a batter per inning. However, his best work this season has come from the bullpen and since he's moved into the rotation, he's struggled a bit.
As a starter, he's logged 11.1 innings and managed only 10 strikeouts while walking seven hitters and allowing three home runs. His WHIP is now up to 1.71 on the season to go along with a 4.61 SIERA. He's facing a scrappy Cincinnati team today that has the lowest strikeout rate (only 16% against RHP) over the last two weeks.
Blanco threw 94 pitches in each of his two starts, but he's been terribly inefficient. I like the Reds' chances of holding him under six strikeouts here. He had just five strikeouts in each of his first two starts.
Logan Webb OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings)
I am a sucker for Logan Webb. I just love this guy and how he pitches. He's going to have games where he doesn't get many strikeouts, but he's rarely going to go out and get lit up either. As an elite groundball pitcher, Webb utilizes his hard sinker to keep the ball down in the zone and has become a master of keeping the ball out of the air as a result.
But this year, we have seen him take a big leap in his strikeout rate. He had been around 20-22% (league average) for most of his career but is striking out 25% of opposing hitters this year. In fact, he has an 11 K and a 12 K game both under his belt this season and 10 starts in which he's struck out six or more hitters.
The odds here suggest that bettors don't believe in him or they fear the Dodgers, which I understand. But Webb has already struck out six Dodgers once this season and today's Dodger lineup could look really interesting if any of their regulars get a day off. LA is already down Max Muncy and they have had to play Michael Busch and his 39% strikeout rate in his spot.
Both J.D. Martinez and James Outman are sporting 34% and 35% strikeout rates against RHP, respectively, this year as well. Webb has had some trouble historically with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, but he could get it done here against a relatively weak and strikeout-prone bottom half of the LA lineup.
For these odds, I am in. I am a believer in Webb and his revamped slider that is generating a lot of whiffs. The sinker-slider-changeup trio of pitches can be truly devastating when Webb has total command of all three pitches.
Jameson Taillon OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125 DraftKings)
It's been a terrible year so far for Taillon, there's simply no way around it. The former Pirate and Yankee is sporting a 6.70 ERA and has been a huge disappointment in his first year in Chicago. There are not many underlying stats to suggest too much positive regression either.
His WHIP of 1.52 is an indication of just how many baserunners he is allowing this year. While he might have a bit better luck with BABIP or his strand rate going forward, he's still projecting as a guy who is going to finish with an ERA in the high fours or low fives at this point.
Taillon is simply allowing too much hard contact to opposing hitters. Lately, his walks have started to creep up as well -- likely because he's lost confidence in some of his pitches and he's trying to overcompensate. We are going to keep picking on him today as he faces a formidable Baltimore lineup that should roll out six or even seven left-handed hitters against him. Lefties have been bashing him to the tune of a .435 wOBA and .303 ISO so far this year.
Taillon has allowed three or more earned runs in two starts now, so I am surprised we are getting the over 2.5 here at a pretty decent number and not like -150 or worse.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Lane Thomas OVER 1.5 hits + runs +RBI (-130)
I love the H+R+RBI prop for leadoff hitters like Thomas, who have done a great job of getting on base all year. Sometimes Thomas's odds for this prop can get as high as -150 or -160 in good matchups, so we are getting a little discount here today as Vegas believes that Jesus Luzardo is a worthy enough pitcher to raise the odds.
And while Luzardo has struck out a lot of hitters this season, he has allowed some major production to righties as he's given up a .352 wOBA and .210 ISO. His FB% goes way up against RHH as well as his hard-hit rate (46.8%).
Meanwhile, Thomas has been awesome with the platoon advantage this year. He comes into today's matchup with a .454 wOBA and .277 ISO against lefties this season. He also has some favorable BvP against Luzardo with six hits in 15 plate appearances. Two of those hits were home runs and he's walked twice and struck out only four times. It seems like Thomas has a good read on Luzardo's fastball/slider combo and I look for him to take advantage of the matchup that is in his favor today.
Corey Seager OVER 1.5 total bases (-115)
Seager has been red hot for Texas over the last week. He's hitting .333 with nine hits over that span and five of those hits have gone for extra bases (three home runs, two doubles). When he's been healthy and in the lineup, he's been productive. Seager is coming off a 2-4 performance yesterday against Toronto, including another home run.
Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, is coming off his worst start of the year. He allowed eight runs on 11 hits in just three innings against Baltimore. He's having a very weird year as he now has three terrible starts (nine earned runs allowed, eight, and seven) mixed in with some pretty solid outings.
His primary pitches are a sinker and a cutter and he doesn't throw either of them all that hard (91 mph and 87 mph). He relies on pinpoint location and mixes in a bunch of different offspeed stuff as well. Seager's batted ball metrics against both the sinker and cutter off of righties look great. I am rolling with him here to keep his hot streak going and collect a couple of hits (or one extra-base hit) off Bassitt or the Toronto bullpen.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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