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Tuesdays provide us with some of the most loaded slates each and every week. And for someone who does content nearly every day, it's nice to not have ANY day games to worry about either! The Braves and Tigers have an early-ish game at 6:40, but the other 14 games all start at 7:05 EST or later. It's time to bounce back today after it was a rough day for K props on Sunday when I last wrote this column.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Max Scherzer OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
It appears that Mad Max is back - at least in terms of his ability to strike out opposing hitters. After a slow start to the season, Scherzer has cranked it up lately posting 8, 9, and 10 strikeouts in his last three outings.
Max Scherzer's 5th, 6th and 7th Ks.
Thru 3. pic.twitter.com/5j5pwSSWbD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 8, 2023
He may not throw 97-98 MPH gas anymore, but as you can see in the Pitching Ninja highlights, Max has had his breaking ball and changeup working incredibly well and he's mixing them with his fastball well to keep hitters off balance. Today he gets the Yankees who will be without their best hitter, Aaron Judge, once again. We have some juice attached to this pick, but it's also the lowest number and probably the safest of the three props I am going to recommend today, too.
Corbin Burnes OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings)
So I noticed Burnes was still only at 6.5 last night and very early this morning, but it looks like that ship has sailed. The combination of Burnes's solid recent form (7, 8, and 9 strikeouts in his last three starts) and the elite matchup (Minnesota leading the majors in K% against RHP) means that a lot of folks already slammed that 6.5 number and moved this one early.
Corbin Burnes, 95mph Painted Cutter. 🖌️🎨✂️ pic.twitter.com/5OmpdjHGCQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 8, 2023
But I am a sucker for betting on elite pitchers in great spots. Sometimes you get burned (as we did with Gausman on Sunday) but the payoff here will be nice at these odds if Burnes can keep it going. The Twins have five lefties in the lineup as of right now and Burnes is the rare pitcher who has reverse K splits, striking out 26% of lefties this year to just 21.5% of righties. I am betting on a classic Burnes outing here in a very favorable spot.
Spencer Strider OVER 9.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
Here we are again with Strider and a big number. While Strider hasn't cracked 10 strikeouts in some time, he has had a few bad matchups lately and he's in a perfect "get-right spot" today against the Tigers. Detroit has the second-highest recent K% against RHP after Minnesota and we've seen a number of strikeout pitchers go in and rack up some big K counts. Charlie Morton whiffed 8 last night without finishing six innings and Strider has superior strikeout stuff.
After all, Strider still has an elite 41% K% this year and it's really just a matter of him having some clean innings early with fewer walks to keep that pitch count down. I have him projected for 10-11K tonight and we are getting him at plus money, so I'm fine being a little more risky here with this bet.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 total bases (+120)
Have you heard about this guy yet? I kid, of course, because he is all anyone is talking about. The toolsy rookie has been incredibly impressive so far through his first week in the majors. He finally was held without a hit yesterday, which I kind of saw coming since he had to face the offspeed stuff of crafty veteran Zack Greinke. But today, De La Cruz will face Jordan Lyles - who has arguably been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.
Elly De La Cruz casually goes 458 feet for his first MLB career home run... pic.twitter.com/diImkK58YP
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 7, 2023
Lyles is a fly-ball pitcher who doesn't strike too many guys out and he's giving up a ton of loud contact. He throws mainly a fastball-slider mix that should be more to the liking of the Cincy rookie and we've seen the speed from EDLC that makes me think he can stretch just about any hit into extra bases if he wants. I love these odds and I might even go out on a limb and bet on a home run for EDLC as well.
Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 total bases (-110)
Just when you thought Freeman couldn't get any better, he goes out and puts on a hitting display that reminds all of us just how incredibly talented and consistent he is. The Dodgers first baseman is now hitting .338 this year and his recent power surge (3 HR in his last 6 games) has bumped up his home runs to 13 on the season.
Freeman is simply one of the best all-around hitters in baseball. He might hit a home run or double tonight and hit this prop in one swing, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finished with 2-3 singles either. The guy simply gets it done night in and night out.
Now enter Lance Lynn, his opponent, who is having a rough year - especially against LHH. These numbers are incredibly troubling for Lynn - .467 wOBA, .325 ISO, and 54.6% hard contact allowed to lefties this season. This is a matchup that should result in Freddy hitting some balls hard tonight.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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