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Hey, it's your boy Thunder Dan and while I usually provide my prop bet picks on the weekend, I am filling in for my good friend John Brubaker who usually holds it down on Tuesdays. We have a solid slate of MLB action today, and as always, I have some thoughts about how to attack it with some of my favorite prop bets for hitters and pitchers today.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, May 9, 2023. All odds listed are on DraftKings unless otherwise specified, but always shop the books for the best bargains! Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games already.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shane Bieber UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-105 DK)
It feels weird to be going under on a guy who was once one of the best strikeout artists in baseball. But Bieber is far from the pitcher that he once was and this season he's been relying a lot more on his defense as opponents are putting the ball in play against him quite often.
Bieber has seven or more strikeouts in just one start this season and that came all the way back in early April against a bad Oakland team. His strikeout rate sits at a paltry 16% for the year and his SwStr% is only 9%. His velocity continues to be down on his fastball (topping out around 90-91 MPH) for the second straight season and his breaking pitches are generating fewer whiffs than usual. While Detroit has weak numbers on the season, they've been trending up lately on offense and they forced Cleveland rookie Tanner Bibee into an early exit yesterday.
Bieber is good enough to pitch deep into games and that's my only concern because he could still get to 7 strikeouts in a 7-8 inning outing, but if he hits his pitch count before that I think he's far more likely to go under 7 today.
Louie Varland OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-120 DK)
After Bibee busted yesterday and a few other rookies like Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone struggled in their debuts last week, I told myself no more betting on rookie pitchers! But here we are today and I can't help but like Louie V at this number and these odds.
Anyone who watched the #MNTwins game yesterday you could see the weather playing a part for pitchers but Louie Varland (@LouieVarland) CLEARY had swing and miss stuff — Backed by a 40% CSW
After 2 starts:
3.23 SIERA
2.63 xFIP
23.4% K-BB%I believe he gets rolling here soon pic.twitter.com/4VwffpLd6s
— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) May 4, 2023
Varland has shown the ability to hit his K numbers even while giving up some loud contact and allowing some runs in the process. The matchup with San Diego is dangerous as far as run prevention, but the strikeout potential is there as the Pads continue to strike out fairly often against RHP (25% on the season and 24% over the last two weeks).
Varland has the stuff to get 5 strikeouts today, it's just a matter of pitching deep enough into this game without getting a quick hook. Of the guys who are set at 4.5 Ks today, Varland is by far my favorite.
Shohei Ohtani OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-120 DK)
Some guys won't target pitchers with props set so high, but with elite pitchers like Spencer Strider and Shohei Ohtani, I don't mind. Ohtani has been in the zone over his last three starts, compiling 11, 8, and 13 strikeouts. His 13k in only five innings against the Cardinals last time out was truly incredible as he retired only two hitters by anything other than a strikeout.
Today he faces the Astros, which historically has been a team we avoid with pitchers but Houston is striking out 23% of the time against righties this season and the lack of Jose Altuve in this lineup is really noticeable as his low K% usually brought the whole lineup down a few points. Ohtani has been matchup-proof, too, so I am not sure there is a team in the league who I wouldn't bet on him to get 8 strikeouts against.
BONUS PROP: Eric Lauer OVER 1.5 walks (-170 DK)
Lauer has two or more walks in every start this season and while the Dodgers have not been good against lefties, they do walk over 10% of the time. Only two left-handed pitchers have thrown 5+ innings against the Dodgers this year without surrendering two walks this season (David Peterson and Justin Steele).
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Anthony Rizzo OVER 1.5 total bases (+140 DK)
Rizzo gets one of the best matchups on the board today as Oakland rolls out Drew Rucinski for a third start. They must literally have no one else to put out there because Rucinski has been terrible. In just 9 innings so far he's allowed 15 hits, 6 walks, and 8 earned runs.
Meanwhile, Rizzo and the Yankees are slowly waking up at the plate. The big first baseman has 2+ total bases in four of his last six games including a home run on Sunday against the Rays. And let's not forget that Oakland has easily the worst bullpen in the major leagues backing Rucinksi, too. Rizzo should get 4-5 at-bats against bad pitchers today and these odds are tremendous.
Gavin Sheets OVER 1.5 total bases (+140 DK)
Targeting Jordan Lyles with opposing hitters is usually a profitable strategy. He's been bad this year to both lefties and righties but these numbers against lefties really stand out - 58% FB%, 51% Hard%, and a 13% Barrel%.
Small sample sizes be damned - Sheets is hitting .571 (4-7) against Lyles with a double and a home run. He's also officially "hot" with homers in each of his last two games.
The odds here are fantastic, we simply don't see good hitters in good matchups with a number as high as +140 that often, but have two of them today! Heck, even if one of our two hitter props hit today we make money!
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