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As we enter the first full week of May, it's important to understand that betting lines will continue to get tighter and tighter. Value will be harder to find. When you find it, pounce on it. But when it's not there, don't force it! Let's see if we can find some value to start the week.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, May 6, 2024. Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter/X @BellRoto for more MLB content and banter!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Luis Castillo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
Luis Castillo, White Castle Special. 🤮🍔🍔🍔 pic.twitter.com/p2D5I2do4q
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 1, 2024
Castillo has been dealing early on, and we know the kind of upside he has when his pitches are moving the way he wants. The Twins have the 8th highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers so far this season, so it's a great spot for the 31-year-old to reach at least seven strikeouts, which he's done in three of his last four starts.
Andrew Heaney Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160, DraftKings)
Don't look now, but Oakland is actually starting to put together a nice little lineup when healthy. It doesn't pack the biggest punch power-wise, but the A's can string together tough at-bats at pitchers, and we saw quite the outburst the other night in a 20-run showing.
The A's are now in the top half of the league in WRC+ against left-handed pitchers, even after a putrid start to the year. They can load their lineup full of right-handed bats to give Heaney some trouble. I'll basically take them to score two runs in the first five innings here.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-160 DraftKings)
Alex Wood presents the perfect opportunity to buy in on the Texas Rangers offense, and Semien, being a leadoff hitter with power, is the perfect player for the Hits+Runs+RBIs prop. I'd be fine with buying the alternate line of 2.5 as well. I see some quality at-bats for and around Semien tonight.
Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125, DraftKings)
It's become pretty well-known that Triston McKenzie is pitching through some sort of injury. That poses a chance for us to buy a Tigers offense that has been quite hit-or-miss to start the year. Greene should lead off again, though, and he's not taking very many walks these days. Instead, he's a free swinger with great contact skills, shown by two three-hit efforts last week. I'll take his over total base prop, looking for a double or two singles. Both seem very possible in this spot in Cleveland on Monday night.
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