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What a letdown the young prospects were yesterday on what was a frustrating baseball day. We also saw the Tigers sweep the Mets in a doubleheader, and today we get to see the return of Justin Verlander. It’s a weird Thursday slate today as we have a full slate of day baseball and only one-night game, a 6:10 pm start. It sure feels like a Sunday.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, May 4, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Pick
Grayson Rodriguez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Grayson Rodriguez will toe the rubber at Kauffman Stadium today against the Kansas City Royals. G Rod is 1-0 with a 4.07 ERA, 3.51 SIERA, and 1.40 WHIP. He has thrown 90+ pitches and struck out at least six in each of his last four outings. He has a 32.4% K and a 12.4% SwStrk through his first five big league starts.
The matchup against the Royals is excellent as they have a 26.0% K against righties in 2023, the fourth worst in baseball. Their 65 wRC+ against right-hand pitching is good for dead last in the big leagues. Their last 30-day trends match those numbers as well. G Rod is my favorite K prop which means it will be my most lucrative bet.
Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pablo Lopez will face the White Sox tonight after Twins pitchers have hit their over in K props the last two nights. Lopez has a 31.1% K through six starts and has struck out seven hitters in all, but one start this season. He has an elite 14.8% SwStrk as well. Lopez has been dominant against righties with a 29.8% K last season against the split and already has a 32.2% K this season. The White Sox will send at least six righties to the plate, giving Lopez a safer floor because of the number of righties he will face.
This season, they have a 22.8% K against righties with an 83 wRC+. Over the last 30 days, they have a 22.6% K and a 75 wRC+. As I stated yesterday, Rocco Baldelli lets his starters pitch deep into games. Twins starters are second in baseball in innings pitched. This is the perfect storm for Lopez to hit the over on his Ks.
Dylan Dodd OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dylan Dodd gets the ball today against the Miami Marlins. I don’t know much about him, but his numbers look good. In 2022 in Double-A, he had a 28.4% K, and in Triple-A, he had a 26.9% K. So far this season in Triple-A, he has a 25.4% K. In his last three outings, Dodd threw 94, 94, and 74 pitches, so he is stretched out here, and as long as he’s pitching well will see a full workload. The number of 3.5 Ks seems too low for me, and I love attacking these spots with anyone with decent K stuff, and Dodd fits that mold.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Cedric Mullins OVER 1.5 hits, runs and runs batted in (-150 DraftKings SportsBook)
Cedric Mullins faces Jordan Lyles in a game with a total of 9.5 runs. The Orioles have opened at 5.5 implied runs total as well. So far, in 2023, Lyles has a 6.11 ERA, 5.42 SIERA, and 2.25 HR/9. He is susceptible to both lefties and righties, but since 2022 lefties have hit him to a .231 ISO, .346 wOBA, and a 43.5% hard hit. So far, in 2023, Mullins has 17 Hs, 14 Rs, and 23 RBIs, an average of 1.8 Hs, Rs, and RBIs a game. Mullins will hit leadoff here against Lyles in a high total against his weaker split, so I like his chances of getting over 1.5 today.
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