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I'm back again with more MLB player props! If you're getting tired of me, don't worry - I am just covering once again for one of my fellow writers and I will never turn down a chance to share some of my favorite prop bets with you! I do strikeout and walk projections for pitchers every day and I hope you tailed yesterday as both Kodai Senga and Shane McClanahan hit for us (though Yusei Kikuchi goes on the no-fly list since he couldn't take advantage of an elite matchup).
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, May 31, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Mitch Keller OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings)
It's really for me (as a Pirates fan) not to be wildly optimistic about Mitch Keller and what he's doing this season. He's been one of the best stories in baseball so far and I was someone who backed his breakout this offseason as I thought he made some really important changes to his arsenal in the second half of last season.
It turns out that one more offseason was all he needed to really tune up his stuff. He's throwing harder than ever before and locating his pitches with incredible precision. At some point, I would like to see him improve on his 10.5% SwStr% as he's not going to catch guys looking forever, but it's hard not to endorse him for 7+ strikeouts today when he's done it six straight times.
The Giants have an above-average strikeout rate of 25%, too, which has my projections for Keller pushing up toward 9 today. Even if we account for some regression, it's still quite possible that Mitch gets to seven strikeouts today without being as dominant as he has been during this recent run.
Hunter Brown OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
If Mitch Keller wasn't grabbing all the headlines, then Hunter Brown's ridiculous rookie year thus far would certainly be a bigger story. I mean, this kid has been tremendous and has quieted any doubts that he's not cut out for a starting role as some thought he would best be utilized out of the bullpen.
Brown made easy work of the Athletics in his last two starts, striking out 19 A's over 13 innings while allowing just three runs on seven hits.
Hunter Brown, Hammers. ⚒️ pic.twitter.com/vopJRmd7vj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2023
He had eight strikeouts against the White Sox the start before that, giving him 8, 9, and 10 strikeouts over his last three starts. As with all rookies, he had some hiccups as he struggled against the Giants and Angels in early May, but he punched out eight Rays in seven impressive shutout innings, shut out Texas over seven frames, and shut out these Twins with seven strikeouts over seven innings back in early April.
He continues to improve and is demonstrating some impressive command of his fastball and nasty curveball. While he's trending up, the Twins are trending down (well, actually UP) as their K% against RHP over the last two weeks has been a massive 32%.
I think Brown can get 8+ tonight. He's feeling it and the matchup couldn't be better. I like betting on good pitchers and we getting a stud here who is locked in at plus odds. Go do your thing, Hunter!
George Kirby UNDER 1.5 walks (-200 DraftKings)
And now we go in a slightly different direction. This is what I call a "parlay prop" in that I rarely like to make straight bets that approach -200, but I am not sure we can pass up what has been free money all season. Kirby is the definition of an elite control pitcher. He's walked one batter or no batters in every start this season and he's only walked two hitters TWICE in his entire career (albeit a short career so far)
Jack Flaherty and Alek Manoah EACH have more walks this season than George Kirby has in his entire career.
2023 Flaherty: 33 BB in 51 IP (10 starts)
2023 Manoah: 33 BB in 50.2 IP (10 starts)Kirby career: 27 BB in 188.1 IP (34 starts)
Kirby is a G
— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) May 25, 2023
It doesn't really matter the matchup, we are betting on Kirby's control here and whether or not he's giving up runs is irrelevant. I like pairing this prop with some other safe outcomes (like a big ML favorite) to get up around +100 or better, but I would certainly endorse betting it straight up, too, because it's been automatic all season long.
Also consider: Zach Eflin over 5.5 strikeouts (+105)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Josh Jung OVER 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)
Jung has been one of my favorite hitters to bet on this year, especially when he faces a lefty. His splits against LHP this season have been elite as he's now at a .413 wOBA and .333 ISO. He went 3-5 yesterday with a double and a home run and continues to hit for power this year.
The opposing pitcher today is Joey Wentz, who is having a forgettable start to this season. Over his first two months, Wentz has a 5.35 xFIP and is allowing a .345 wOBA and .201 ISO to RHH. This is a matchup that Jung can dominate and I love his chances at continuing to rack up multi-hit games or cash the bet with just one swing if he goes for extra bases.
Wander Franco OVER 0.5 stolen bases (+340 DraftKings)
I haven't written up a stolen base prop all season, but here goes nothing! Franco and the Rays face lefty Justin Steele from the Cubs today. While Steele has had a solid season, he will have his work cut out for him today as the Rays rank as one of the best teams in baseball against lefties.
Franco has been doing an excellent job getting on base this year against left-handed pitching with an elite .452 wOBA. He's striking out just 6% of the time and walking over 10% of the time. He's managed to get on base now in eight straight games and has been running wild. He's stolen a base in five of his of his last seven games, including a 2-steal game against Toronto last week.
If he gets on base, he has the green light to run an these odds are too good to pass up!
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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