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What a fun baseball day we have ahead of us today, with games starting at 1:40 pm ET. We have a doubleheader in Detroit after a postponement yesterday. We have two young studs, Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone, making their major league debuts. We have the return of Mad Max pitching in his familiar confines of Comerica Park after his suspension from an illegal substance. This may be one of the best baseball days of the year, so why not place some wagers on it?
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Joey Lucchesi OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Joey Lucchesi will face the Detroit Tigers for real this time after getting rained out yesterday. I bet this prop yesterday before the rain out, and it was one of my favorite props on a day loaded with pitching. Lucchesi has a 25.5% K% in his first two outings of 2023. He struck out nine in his first appearance and followed it up with three strikeouts against the Nationals the last time out. He had a career 24.6% K% before his injury in 2021, which sidelined him last year, so having swing-and-miss stuff is nothing new for him.
The Tigers are one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching. This year, they have a 30.3% K% against lefties with a 94 wRC+. Over the last 30 days, they have the worst K% in baseball vs. lefties with a 31.6% K%. This matchup is as good as you can get, and Lucchesi has the stuff to get the over here on his K prop.
Louie Varland OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Louie Varland will get another start today for the Twins against the White Sox on the road. Varland had eight strikeouts against the Yankees in his first start of 2023, and getting swings and misses is nothing new for him. He had a 40.3% K% in Triple-A before his call-up this season. In his first start, he had a 14.5% SwStr%.
Varland will face the White Sox, who have a 22.8% K% in 2023 with an 85 wRC+. Rocco Baldelli has let his arms pitch deep into games this season as well, as the Twins starters are second in baseball in innings pitched. Varland went 83 pitches in his first outing, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number get closer to the century mark after the Twins played an extra-inning game last night.
Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone OVER TBD strikeouts
Both Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone K Props are not out yet as of writing this. I know we all love reading these articles and going and clicking on bets, but I wanted to write them up here as they will be two of my favorite K prop bets of the day. Getting top prospects to make their major league debut usually makes for lucrative lines. We have already seen it with Mason Miller, Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee, and even yesterday with Bryce Miller.
Pfaadt has a 28.6% K% so far in Triple-A this season. In 2022, he had a 32.2% K% in Double-A and a 30.6% K% in Triple-A. The swing-and-miss stuff is there. If we see this line get set at 4.5 or even 5.5 with some juice, I will be all over it.
Gavin Stone is in the same boat as Pfaadt, as he has tremendous stuff and gets a ton of swings and misses in the minor leagues. He currently sits at a 25.7% K%. In 2022, he had a 35.3% K% in Double-A and a 35.5% K% in Triple-A. Again, I will be all over this line at 4.5 or 5.5 with some juice.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Teoscar Hernandez OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DraftKings SportsBook)
Every time I write this article, the Mariners face a lefty. We must focus on Hernandez and his total bases prop when that happens. Hernandez is a lefty masher as he has a .465 wOBA, .565 ISO, and a 43.8% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. In 2022, he had a .395 wOBA, .363 ISO, and a 54.7% hard-hit rate.
His opposition, JP Sears, has a 2.42 HR/9 with a 6.23 ERA this season. He has given up a .341 wOBA, .321 ISO, 37.7% hard-hit rate, and a 66.0% FB to right-handed hitters. I don't love the home runs, as this is one of the worst-hitting parks in baseball, but look for Hernandez to get a couple of bases against Sears.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 total bases (-120 DraftKings SportsBook)
Fernando Tatis Jr. gets a prime matchup against the reverse splits of Luis Cessa. Cessa leads today's slate with a 9.56 ERA and a 6.11 SIERA. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .362 wOBA, .210 ISO, and a 42.0% hard-hit rate against right-handed batters.
Tatis has hit righties to a .363 wOBA, .229 ISO, and a 44.4% hard-hit rate since returning from suspension. Tatis also has an outstanding matchup with Cessas's pitch mix. Cessa throws sliders to righties 50% of the time, and Tatis hits sliders against right-handed pitching with a .356 wOBA, .337 ISO, and a 51.6% hard-hit rate. Cessa throws his sinker 25% of the time, and Tatis hits that just as well with a .460 wOBA, .299 ISO, and a 50.0% hard-hit rate. I will be betting on his home run prop as well.
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