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If a more perfect day for Major League Baseball exists, I am not sure how or in what universe. As spring turns to summer, we have been blessed with some of the best weather of late May that I can remember. I know I am not ready for the dog days of summer yet, so let's just soak up the good vibes this Memorial Day weekend and enjoy a whole bunch of baseball today.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, May 28, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Cristian Javier OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings)
We are absolutely attacking the Athletics today with another excellent right-handed pitcher. Oakland continues to lead the MLB in strikeout rate against RHP (now up over 27% on the year) and we are seeing righties dominate them quite regularly. Javier missed Oakland last week as his spot in the rotation didn't come up, but his fellow rotation-mate Hunter Brown proceeded to strike out nine and 10 Athletics in his last two starts against them.
Javier has every bit as good of stuff as Brown and is a bit more polished, too. This year, his strikeout rate is down a bit, but it's still sitting at 27.8% with a healthy 13.6% SwStr%. He's really improved his control and has his walk rate down to just 5.7%, which has led to cleaner outings and more innings pitched.
For that reason, I love his chances at getting through six innings today and qualifying for a win as he should get plenty of offensive support with a healthy lineup behind him facing a struggling young pitcher on the other side in Luis Medina. The Astros are a healthy -250 road favorite here, so getting Javier to get the win at -105 feels like great value. We are going for the trifecta here on Javier today!
Bonus Bets: Javier over 17.5 outs (-180) and "To Record a Win" (-105)
Cristian Javier, Elevated 92mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/VCqqgoP08R
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 23, 2023
Spencer Strider OVER 8.5 strikeouts (-145 DraftKings)
At some point, the books are going to have to consider moving Strider up to 9.5 strikeouts as his opening line. That's something we have really only seen with one other pitcher in recent memory -- Jacob deGrom. Strider has failed to strike out nine batters just twice this season and is coming off another dominant K performance against a very good Dodger lineup his last time out as he whiffed 11.
Spencer Strider's 9th, 10th and 11th Ks. pic.twitter.com/pJb0uYoRN8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 24, 2023
Is Strider matchup-proof? Yes, at this point I think so. He can get in trouble with walks sometimes, which can run up his pitch count early. But he's also shown that he can battle back and get over his number in the later innings, too -- something that not every pitcher can do.
Philly has a neutral K% against RHPs and a slightly above-average walk rate. For what it's worth, Strider made three starts against the Phils last season and recorded six, 13, and 10 strikeouts. We have seen him dominate all season long and I have no reason to think he won't be amped up for this divisional matchup with Atlanta's rival on national TV tonight!
Marco Gonzales UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-120 DraftKings)
How about an under instead of all these overs, right? Marco Gonzales is not a very good pitcher by any metric, but he eats innings. Right now, he's still holding down the fifth spot in the Seattle rotation since they've been without Robbie Ray all season. He rarely gets blown up completely, but he also rarely dominates, too. He can be frustrating to stack against in DFS because he will give up a bunch of hits and baserunners and then somehow work his way out of it.
But one thing he doesn't do all that well is strike hitters out. He has just a 15% strikeout rate on the year and is facing a Pittsburgh team today that whiffs only 20% of the time against LHPs.
You could argue that Gonzales' strikeout rate is even a bit inflated from where it should be thanks to one big outing against the Brewers when he struck out nine back in April. We all know that anyone who can throw the ball with their left hand has a chance of doing that against Milwaukee.
In fact, Gonzo has struck out more than four hitters just one other time this season besides that Milwaukee game, meaning he has gone under five strikeouts in his other seven starts (and the last six in a row). I'm banking on my Buccos making contact today and I am a bit surprised we are getting these decent odds on this under.
Also consider: Alex Cobb over 17.5 outs (-140) and Jose Berrios over 5.5 strikeouts (-140)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jorge Soler OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings)
Do you want to hear a crazy stat? Soler now has a .599 wOBA and .674 ISO against left-handed pitching this year through his first 50 plate appearances. Yes, it's still a fairly small sample size but 50 PA will probably be around 30-35% of the PA he will end up having against lefties this year.
Soler is probably the hottest hitter in baseball right now, having slugged a home run in five straight games and six of his last seven. He will face the southpaw Patrick Sandoval today, who has not lived up to expectations at all this season as he has a 5.05 xFIP and only a 16% strikeout rate.
Soler smashes fastballs, but he can also sit back on the slider and change up from Sandoval here, too. It's wild we are still getting him at even money here considering how good he's been this season and on this crazy run the last week.
Lane Thomas OVER 1.5 hits + runs +RBI (-150 DraftKings)
Thomas has been the best hitter in the Washington lineup this season and is on quite the tear of his own right now. He's hit safely in 12 straight games and cashed this prop in all but two of those games. Yesterday was one of them and while I was bummed out that it missed (and the total bases hit instead at better odds since he had a double, but no other hits, runs, or RBI), I am going right back to it today.
Thomas faces lefty Daniel Lynch, who is making his 2023 debut. Lynch has been a below-average starter in his first few seasons in the majors. Last year, he finished with a 4.93 xFIP and a .342 wOBA allowed to righties. Thomas this year has been elite against LHPs, with a .441 wOBA and .254 ISO against them.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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