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It's another Saturday full of baseball today as we have games scattered across the afternoon and evening. I hope you are enjoying our daily player prop picks and that you're having a profitable start to the MLB season.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, May 13, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zac Gallen OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-145 DraftKings)
I am rolling with some bonafide studs today for my first two K prop picks and Gallen certainly fits that description. He's been arguably the most impressive pitcher this season with some eye-popping stats through his first 8 starts.
5-1, 2.36 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 64 strikeouts, 6 walks
He's struck out 7 or more hitters in all but two of those starts, too, and has two double-digit strikeout performances already.
Zac Gallen's 3Ks in the 5th. pic.twitter.com/hPcFCBJm89
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 9, 2023
He's made it look so effortless, too. He has yet to throw over 100 pitches yet this season but has pitched into the 6th inning or deeper six times. The added velocity to his fastball has certainly helped his strikeout ability, but his pinpoint control of all of his pitches is what has really made his arsenal devastating.
Gallen gets the Giants today who strike out nearly 25% of the time against RHP. I have him projected for 8.75 strikeouts in this matchup. I'm rolling with the guy who has been rolling right along all season.
Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
I'm a pretty big Shan Mac stan (as the kids like to say) as I think he's simply one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. He was my pick for AL Cy Young in the preseason and as long as he can stay healthy (something Rays pitches apparently can't do - pour one out for Drew Rasmussen) I think it's his award to lose.
Shane McClanahan, 99mph Paint. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/WXbHsOWICo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2023
I could watch Shane's highlights all day. He throws hard but features multiple different types of breaking pitches and an outstanding changeup. If you think Gallen's stat line is impressive then consider what Shane has done through his first 8 starts.
7-0, 1.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 58 strikeouts, 20 walks
Walks are the one thing that Mac has struggled with a bit and it concerns me a bit today as the Yankees do walk 12% of the time against lefties. However, Shane is in great form right now with 9 and 7 strikeouts in his last two starts and 7 or more in 5 of his last 7. I have him projected for 7.45 strikeouts today. He just needs to limit the walks and the strikeouts should be there.
Bryce Miller OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
This kid has been pretty darn legit in his first two starts in the major leagues. He struck out 10 Athletics in his debut while allowing only one run over six innings only to follow that up with six scoreless innings against the Astros. He did only strike out five Astros, but he has also only walked one batter across his first 12 innings.
Bryce Miller throwing flaming buzzsaws.
2783 and 2760 RPMs pic.twitter.com/XQrVifOEdk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2023
This line is moving pretty quickly. I grabbed it at +115 when I rolled out of bed and by the time I got the keyboard to type this up it was -105 and before I hit publish I checked again and it's back up to plus money. I suspect the over will be a popular bet here and while I didn't bet him against Houston, I am ready to jump back on the over here against Detroit as they have more substantially higher K% to righties at nearly 25%. Betting on rookies is always a little dicey, but we are gambling after all! If we had been too cautious yesterday with Eury Perez we would have missed out on easy money (I hope you tailed me and cashed that bet as Eury went for 7 strikeouts and crushed his prop line of 4.5).
Also consider: Reid Detmers over 4.5 strikeouts vs. CLE (-140)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Manny Machado OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 DraftKings)
Rarely do I read too much into BvP (batter vs. pitcher) stats, but Machado's history against his division foe Julio Urias is quite impressive. If we do look into BvP, we should always consider the sample size as a handful of at-bats is rarely predictive. But Machado has 32 at-bats against Urias and has hit .406 against him with four home runs. That's something!
Machado has had an uneven start to the season but has shown signs of getting it together over the last few weeks. He has always hit left-handers well and while his ISO this season against them has dropped under .100, his wOBA of .430 is still strong. There was a time when we rarely if ever get Machado at plus money on his total base prop against a lefty, but Urias's reputation and Manny's pedestrian overall numbers are giving us some nice odds. I like his chances for a two-bagger or multi-hit game today and he collected three hits off Urias already in their matchup last week.
Jonah Heim OVER 1.5 hits, runs, or RBI (-130 DraftKings)
As much as I like JP Sears, the guy simply continues to get hit by lefties and I am still a bit salty at Josh Jung for not coming through for me last night so I am rolling with Jonah Heim. The Rangers' backstop has been hitting everything this season as he's up to a .319 average with 6 home runs, 24 runs scored, and 29 RBI.
He has good numbers against Sears (3-7 with a double and HR) and a really impressive .521 wOBA against lefties this season.
As a switch-hitter, he gets to keep his platoon advantage over any right-handed relievers and...stop me if you've heard this before, but OAKLAND HAS THE WORST BULLPEN IN BASEBALL.
Also consider: Yandy Diaz over 1.5 H + R + RBI (-150 DK)
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