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It's the weekend and it's time for a whole bunch more baseball in the next few days. I hope you are enjoying the return of baseball and that you get some great weather this week. Spring has officially sprung and Springs (as in Jeffrey) is back in action today. Jeffrey Springs happens to be one of my favorite pitchers for K props over the last year and there's simply NO WAY we aren't betting on him today after his incredible 2023 season debut.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, April 8, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jeffrey Springs OVER 6.5K (+115 DK) vs. OAK
The secret is out on Springs and the entire baseball community is finally aware of his greatness. Last year he blossomed into a really good starting pitcher after toiling as a reliever for several years. His Spring Training results were good but I don't think anyone expected six no-hit innings with 12 strikeouts in his debut! He was capped at 81 pitches in that game and wasn't allowed to come out and chase the no-no, and the Rays are super annoying with these pitch counts. However, he worked so efficiently that I feel pretty good about his chances here today.
As I was doing my research this prop moved from 5.5 in such a hurry it was wild. I am pretty confident that these plus odds won't last that long either as people are going to continue to smash the over on 6.5. Oakland is a sub-par offense but hasn't whiffed more than average against lefties. I am still confident in my guy and his stuff that he can get 7, but this isn't quite the slam-dunk matchup he had last time either. I will continue to bet on his talent, however. I watched a good chunk of his first start and his control was impeccable. He doesn't overpower guys throwing 92 on his fastball, but he was putting every pitch exactly where he wanted it and his changeup is definitely one of the better changeups of any pitcher in baseball.
Kodai Senga OVER 5.5K (-135 DK) vs. MIA
The Mets had to be thrilled with Senga's debut against Miami last week. He did walk three batters but struck out eight and allowed just one run on three hits. He had his good stuff working, including the "ghost fork" (basically a split-finger fastball or forkball, whatever you want to call it).
Kodai Senga, 97mph Fastball and 85mph Ghost Fork, Overlay. 😯 pic.twitter.com/C4OLiSUQzk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2023
He throws hard (96-97 on his fastball) and can throw both a cutter and slider to keep hitters off balance. I have said it before - I don't usually like attacking a team twice in a row with the same pitcher and it burned me last night with Kershaw. But I'm not sure we can pass up this spot for Senga as Miami leads all teams so far with a 31% K rate against RHP. Senga's stuff is legit and the Miami strikeout rate is so far ahead of the rest of the pack that I am willing to believe he can put up 6+ again in this spot.
Martin Perez OVER 4.5 (-135 DK) vs. CHC
Now we get to a guy who has never really been a strikeout pitcher in his career. However, Perez was able to strike out seven Phillies in his debut and allow just one run while scattering eight hits and three walks. That's WAY too many baserunners and he's playing with fire there, however, the fact that he was missing bats that often is a good sign.
If we needed any more than five strikeouts, I would be out on Perez I simply don't trust him all that much as he had just a 9% SwStr% last season. But he gets a Cubs team here that has struck out around 30% of the time against lefties so far and has a few guys with really high K rates against southpaws (Wisdom, Bellinger, Swanson) so I am rolling with Marty P here to pitch deep enough into this game to get it done.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Will Smith over 1.5 TB (-110 DK)
I'll spare you a Fresh Prince joke and just get right into the analysis. Will Smith is RED HOT to start the season. In case you missed it, the Dodgers backstop has hit safely in all six of his starts and has a .391 average with three home runs and ten RBI. He's had 2+ total bases in all but one of those games and gets to face Zach Davies tonight, the definition of a "hittable pitcher."
After resting last night, we should see Smith back in the lineup for the Dodgers and he happens to have some excellent BvP history against Davies (.333 AVG, 2 doubles, 3 home runs in 20 plate appearances). Smith also has excellent numbers against righties and is one of those hitters who doesn't have major splits. Last year he had a .349 wOBA and .219 ISO against RHP. These odds are a gift today, I was expecting to see him jacked up to like -130 by now.
Nolan Arenado over 1.5 TB (+100)
The big third baseman for the Cardinals has only one double this year and no home runs. However, he is hitting .333 and has a hit in every game this season, so it's not like he's not making contact or anything. The power will come and it might come today against Brewers' lefty Eric Lauer.
Both Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have ridiculously good splits against lefties in their career, with Goldy going absolutely nuts last season, too. I was torn between which one to pick as Goldy has had a little more success this season with extra-base hits, but Arenado has better career numbers against Lauer (.300 AVG, 3 doubles, 2 HR). Lauer is a fly-ball pitcher who can give up home runs and this Cards lineup is going to be a real challenge for him today. I like Nolan to get there one way or another - either with a multi-hit game or an extra-base hit (maybe even his first dinger of the season.)
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