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With four of our ten possible games already getting postponed yesterday, today has become a small slate of games. We also have our first Coors slate of the year, and Arizona has decided to open their roof for tonight, which is always a good thing for offense. The lines for pitchers seem tight today, and there isn't a whole lot outside the bets that I will mention below that I like, but with that said, there are still some solid spots to attack for today.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, April 6, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Chris Sale OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sale got banged up in his first start against Baltimore, giving up seven earned runs in three innings pitched, but he still managed to record six strikeouts on only 74 pitches. He gets a much better matchup here against the Tigers, who own a 35.3% K early to start 2023 against left-hand pitching. In 2022 the projected starting lineup sported a 22.9% K against that handiness. I expect Sale to pitch deeper here today, and the juice of +115 on DraftKings makes this my favorite pitching prop bet today.
Kyle Freeland UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
As mentioned earlier, we get our first Coors game of the year, and if anyone is unfamiliar with the mile-high city, the effect it has on a baseball game is unlike any other. Not only does the ball fly more, but spin rates change, and it is a black hole for horizontal movement on pitchers.
In his first start of the season, on the road, Freeland had one strikeout in six innings against the Padres, although he gave up zero runs on three hits. He was very efficient, but the strikeouts weren't there. In 2022 in the confines of Coors Field, Freeland had a 15.0% K. So far, to start the 2023 season, the Washington Nationals have an 8.9% K when facing left-hand pitchers, including outings against Shane McClanahan, Max Fried, and Jared Shuster, so the sample size is more significant than you think.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ryan McMahon OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ryan McMahon will face Josiah Gray today in Coors Field, and whenever he toes the rubber, we need to dial up left-handed bats against him. In 2022 Gray had a .405 wOBA and a .333 ISO against left-hand hitters. In his first start of 2023, Gray gave up five earned runs on seven hits, three of which were home runs. He faced ten left-handed bats in that appearance, and they posted a .505 wOBA and a .375 ISO.
In 2022 McMahon posted a .358 wOBA and a .219 ISO at home against right-hand pitching. McMahon will hit fifth in today's order behind Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon, and C.J. Cron in a game where the Rockies have an implied run total set at 5.1 runs. It is hard for me to believe that McMahon won't get over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs today, and I will be making this the only two-unit bet of this article, something I rarely do on hitter player props.
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 stolen bases (+340 DraftKings Sportsbook)
*Disclaimer, this is a direct copy and paste from my article last Friday, where Carroll faced Dustin May at Dodger Stadium. He went on to steal three bases in the series' final game. Let's run it back. It can't miss twice.
Carroll stole 67 bags in the minors last season and had five this spring. According to Statcast, his sprint speed at 30.7 ft/sec is the fastest in the big leagues. Since 2019's small sample size because of injuries, Dustin May has the sixth-highest stolen base success rate and the sixth-highest stolen base rate per inning pitched. In 2021 Will Smith gave up 72 SB, which led MLB. In comparison, the next closest was 55. In 2022 he improved but still gave up 46 SB, the fifth worst in the big leagues. If Carroll can get on base today, he is going to run.
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