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We have a strong Tuesday slate on tap with an abundance of prop picks to select from. In this article, I will break down several plays that are worth taking a shot on. I will be here each and every Saturday and Tuesday throughout the season to break down pitcher and hitter props.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, April 30, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @Kipppsta.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nestor Cortes OVER 3.5 earned runs allowed (+115 DraftKings)
Nestor Cortes has been known to have some blowup games from time-to-time. He has allowed more than three earned runs in two of his six starts this season. He has also allowed three earned runs in two additional starts this season, so he has flirted with this number or eclipsed it in four total games on the season.
He will be facing the Baltimore Orioles, which is bad news for the southpaw. Over the previous two weeks, Baltimore has posted a 179 wRC+ mark against left-handers, which is by far the best in baseball. This game will be played away from Yankee Stadium, which is also bad news for Nestor as he has posted a 4.15 ERA on the road since 2022 compared to a 2.51 ERA at home.
Logan Webb UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)
Logan Webb has yet to strike out six batters in any game this season. He has only reached five strikeouts in three of his six starts despite pitching rather well this season. The matchup is not exactly smooth sailing, either.
While the Red Sox were posting a high K rate vs. right-handers earlier in the season, they have dropped their K rate to 22.9%. They have also hit well over this same span as they are posting a 128 wRC+ vs. right-handers. Webb is certainly capable of striking out six batters, but this may not be the matchup for it at Fenway Park.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ryan Mountcastle OVER .5 home runs (+300 DraftKings)
We are going to take a shot on a home run prop this evening with Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle has homered in two of his previous three games and the matchup against Nestor Cortes is solid. Since 2022, Mountcastle has posted an .884 OPS with 19 home runs against southpaws. He has also hit 24 of his 44 home runs since 2022 at home.
Meanwhile, Cortes has allowed 29 home runs to right-hnaders since 2022. He has also allowed a total of 1.5 HR/9 on the road since 2022 compared to .8 HR/9 at home.
Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DraftKings)
Josh Naylor has started the season on fire and now has hits in 10 of his previous 14 games. He will be facing Hunter Brown, who has allowed a .333 BAA against to left-handed hitters this season. The Astros bullpen has also struggled this season as they have posted an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.43, both of which rank seventh worst in baseball. This should be a good spot for Naylor to keep rolling.
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