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We have another compact Thursday slate on tap, one where most of the games are matinee clashes. Fortunately, there are some appealing scenarios for both pitchers and hitters in play, and I'll break down five of them with the goal of turning a profit on as many as possible!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, April 25, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @jcblanco22.
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zack Wheeler OVER 7.5 strikeouts thrown (-132 FanDuel)
Wheeler's 1-3 record is deceptive, as it's accompanied by a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 0.6 HR/9. Wheeler's 30.2 percent strikeout rate is also a career high, and his .189 xBAA and .246 xwOBA further corroborate how effective he's been along with the fact he's essentially been the victim of some poor run support and misfortune.
Four of Wheeler's trips to the mound have resulted in quality starts, including a pair of blankings of six innings (Braves) and 7.1 innings (White Sox). On Thursday, the right-hander faces a Reds team whose current bats he's struck out 19 times in 57 career encounters. Cincinnati also checks in with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching -- along with a .222 average and .294 OBP -- thus far this season.
Wheeler has eight or more strikeouts in three of his first five starts as well, and this price on FanDuel is markedly lower than that of other sportsbooks, making it one to jump on.
Zack Wheeler's 2Ks in the 5th. pic.twitter.com/YqeS3TpcEG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2024
Nestor Cortes UNDER 1.5 earned runs allowed (+100 BetMGM)
Cortes has gotten off to a generally positive start thus far this season, even though he sports just a 1-1 record. That mark is accompanied by a 3.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .228 xBAA, .267 xwOBA, and 2.74 xERA. Cortes has pitched to some contact against the three above-average offenses he's faced -- the Astros, Diamondbacks, and Guardians -- but he's shined when he's been in clear-cut advantageous matchups like the one he draws Thursday.
Cortes has blanked both the Marlins and Rays, holding the pair of Florida squads to eight hits over 15 scoreless innings while also recording 15 strikeouts. He now tangles with an Athletics team that has posted a 26.0 percent strikeout rate, .207 average, .654 OPS, .292 wOBA, and -3.7 wRAA in 231 plate appearances against left-handed pitching thus far.
Cortes has also held current A's bats to a collective .211/.250/.263 slash line over 20 career encounters, and Oakland checks in averaging the second-fewest runs per road game (3.1) and only 1.5 per first five innings in that same split. Given Cortes' track record against inferior competition and the chance to get plus money, I'm in the camp of this prop.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jorge Polanco OVER 0.5 walks (+145 BetMGM)
Polanco has been a profound disappointment from a batting average perspective early in his Mariners tenure, but his .175 figure in that category is in stark contrast to an impressive .333 on-base percentage. Naturally, given how poorly he's actually hit, that can only mean Polanco has been drawing free passes at an above-average clip.
That's exactly the case, as the veteran currently sports a career-high 17.9 percent walk rate. He also generated double-digit walk rates in each of his last two seasons. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Andrew Heaney comes into Wednesday's start having issued multiple walks in three straight starts and has a 3.8 BB/9 against right-handed hitters.
Polanco has drawn at least one walk in 12 of 23 starts, and I'm banking on him keeping a sharp eye at the plate, especially since Rangers relievers also have pitched to a collective 10.4 percent walk rate thus far this season.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 total bases (-145 Bet365)
Banking on a hitter the quality of Tatis to have some success in a Coors Field afternoon game is never a bad way to go. The talented veteran sports an impressive .262/.353/.476 slash line thus far this season and draws a favorable matchup against Rockies starting pitcher Dakota Hudson.
Hudson has surrendered a .318 average and .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home in a small sample this year, his first with Coors as his home park. He's also yielded 22 total bases to the 48 hitters he's faced thus far at Coors, while Tatis has accumulated 49 total bases in 27 games. Tatis's underlying metrics also imply he's making much more solid contact that even his current numbers imply, as he carries a .313 xBA, .412 xwOBA, and 53.7 percent hard-hit rate, per Statcast.
The Padres have a projected run total of 5.9 runs for today's game, and Tatis has the power to cash this prop with one swing. Moreover, Colorado relievers have yielded 67 total bases this season as well over the first 25 games.
Watching Fernando Tatis Jr. play baseball is something I will never take for granted pic.twitter.com/P61qx4Pt1R
— Al Scott (@AlScott1998) April 20, 2024
Freddie Freeman to Hit a HR (+500 BetMGM)
To say Freeman is overdue for some homers is quite the understatement. The prolific slugger and future Hall of Famer is sitting on just one round tripper through 116 plate appearances after averaging one every 26.3 trips to the batter's box over the prior three seasons. Freeman also happens to be facing a starting pitcher in MacKenzie Gore who is seemingly due to start giving up some long balls in his own right.
Gore has allowed just one homer in 20 innings thus far after allowing one every five frames last season. The southpaw also has had trouble with same-handed matchups over his brief MLB career, allowing a .277 average and .385 OBP to the 219 left-handed hitters he's faced. In turn, Freeman is atypically struggling against lefties thus far, but he owns a .274 average, .804 OPS, and .349 wOBA in that split over his decorated career, averaging a HR every 30.6 plate appearances in the process.
Furthermore, Freeman has a .373 xwOBA against the four-seam fastball -- Gore's most often-thrown pitch to left-handed hitters -- and Nationals relievers have allowed a .282 average and .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the season as well.
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