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Friday is my favorite day of the week as we get a full MLB slate, and College Baseball kicks off for weekend series baseball. Check out my College Baseball article on RotoBaller later today for some more free baseball bets. We have some games with potential weather and one expecting snow flurries. I will be avoiding Cleveland and Minnesota until we get more clarity. Lines have been moving already, so let's get started.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, April 21, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without any further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shohei Ohtani OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Shohei Ohtani squares off against the Kansas City Royals after his start earlier this week was cut short because of weather. The Royals have a 25.0% K against right-hand pitching to start the season and are in the bottom five in the league in runs scored and home runs. Ohtani has a 25.3% K in 2023, and although it's a bit lower than his averages in his career, his velocity and SwStr% are on par with his 2022 numbers. Ohtani also went 111 and 92 pitches in two separate outings this season, so there is a ton of upside for him to not only pitch deep into this game but rack up a ton of Ks along the way.
Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aaron Nola has been a bit shaky to start the season, but he gets a great matchup against the Rockies away from Coors. The Rockies have a 27.1% K away from Denver this season with a significant league-low 25.0% hard hit. This is a different team on the road and one we should attack as often as possible. Matt Strahm had 11 strikeouts against this lineup yesterday, and now, Aaron Nola gets the same dream matchup.
Nola has a 20.4% K in 2023, an 8.7% difference from 2022. The SwStr is also down 2.2%. These numbers are alarming, but the matchup is about as good as possible, and the line at 5.5 is too low. We should see Nola bounce back against the Rockies and have his best outing this young season.
Nick Pivetta UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I never thought I would see the day Nick Pivetta has a strikeout line set at 6.5. Pivetta has a career 24.5% K and a 25.0% K in 2023. He has a 9.3% SwStr, a percentage point lower than the pitchers we discussed earlier. His opponent, the Milwaukee Brewers, has a 22.9% K against right-hand pitching to open 2023 and is a top-ten offense in runs scored and home runs. I don't love the juice, but 6.5 strikeouts for Pivetta is something he hasn't achieved yet this season. I can't see him reaching that here in this matchup.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Gleyber Torres OVER 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings SportsBook)
Yusei Kikuchi leads the slate today in hard hit percentage and home runs per nine innings pitched. He travels to Yankee Stadium to face the New York Yankees in game one of what should be an exciting series between two AL East foes. He is much worse against right-hand hitters; as you know, the Yankees are full of right-handed bats. Since 2022 Kikuchi has a .373 wOBA, .271 ISO, and 50.0% hard hit. He has a 41.6% GB and a 28.0% K against righties, so we need to find someone to counter that.
Gleyber Torres has a perfect profile here against Kikuchi, as he has a .259 ISO and a .350 wOBA against lefties since 2022. He also doesn't strike out often, having a 19.6% K. He hits the ball in the air repeatedly, as he has a ridiculous 47.8% FB against this split. Kikuchi throws his fastball 47.9% of the time against righties. Torres has a .262 ISO and a .351 wOBA against heaters. He throws his slider 29.9% off the time. Torres has a .267 ISO and a .386 wOBA against sliders. He throws his change-up 18.5% of the time. Torres has a .150 ISO and a .413 wOBA against change-ups. Add in his BVP of having a .444 AVG and a home run against Kikuchi in 18 career at-bats, and we have found ourselves a TBs and HR ladder bet for today's slate.
Brice Turang OVER 0.5 stolen bases +330 (DraftKings SportsBook)
My full stolen base card will be posted on Twitter later today, but I'll post my favorite bet here. In his rookie campaign, Turang has already stolen three bases. In triple-a in 2022, playing with the same base size and rules they are now in the big leagues, Turang stole 34 bases. His counterpart Nick Pivetta leads the slate in stolen bases given up since 2022 with 21. I'm also betting on Turangs teammate Christian Yelich today, but I like Turang's odds and probability a bit more.
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