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Wednesdays have turned into mainly day baseball in the MLB, and honestly, it's a lovely change of pace. It feels like a Saturday as we have baseball all day to gamble on and watch. We have a weak pitching slate today where Max Scherzer is the best arm going. It will be a great day to attack some bats in DFS and betting as I see a very offense-centric slate incoming today.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Without any further ado, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Joe Ryan OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+124 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Joe Ryan has opened up the season with a 37.1% K and, like the entire Twins rotation, has seen bumps in K%. Ryan's swinging strike percentage is up 4.3% from last season, and he has struck out six, 10, and 10 batters in his first three outings. The significant change is his new splitter, which has increased K% and swinging strikes.
He now faces a Boston Red Sox team that is running a lineup out with a 21.7% K%. Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers all have under a 6.5% K% this season. Outside of those three, no one is below 20%, so this number is a bit skewed. I don't think we see another 10-strikeout performance from Ryan today, but the fact we're getting plus money on 5.5 is a sure lock for me.
Drew Rasmussen OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-104 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Drew Rasmussen is next up here as he faces a Cincinnati Reds squad with a 24.8% K% to open up 2023. Rasmussen's strikeout stuff has shown improvement as he enters play with a 29.2% K%. His swinging strike is up to a career-high of 12.3%, and he has dazzled in his three starts in 2023. Rasmussen struck out seven against the Nationals, eight against the Athletics, and then only four against a tough Toronto Blue Jays team. The Reds compare to the Nats and A’s. Although the ballpark scares me, the Rays need his length. I think we see a bounce back out of Rasmussen here today.
Martin Perez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Martin Perez gets the Kansas City Royals sweepstakes after I attacked them on back-to-back days with righties without success. Well, I'm going right back to the well today as this team leads baseball with a 31.9% K% against left-hand pitching this season. Perez had a very pedestrian 20.6% K% in 2022 and is floating around the same number at 23.2% K% in 2023. He has thrown 90-plus pitches in his first three outings, so the length will be there. The more batters he faces, the more opportunities he will get for strikeouts. We are betting more on how bad the Royals have been compared to how good Perez has been.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Teoscar Hernandez OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DraftKings SportsBook)
Eric Lauer, former Golden Flash, has been getting hit tremendously hard this season as he leads today's slate with a 45.5% hard-hit rate. He has a .288 ISO with a .396 wOBA against right-hand hitters this season. The Mariners are full of good right-handed bats, but none hit lefties as well as Hernandez. Including stats from 2022-2023, Hernandez has a .425 ISO and a .427 wOBA. Lauer also has a 51.3% FB this season, so I can see a home run coming, but the safe bet is his total bases.
Francisco Lindor OVER 0.5 stolen bases +210 (DraftKings SportsBook)
I will have another big stolen base card today as there are several arms I like to attack for bags that are all toeing the rubber today. At the moment, I have six players on my card, but I will pick my favorite with decent odds to write up here. When Noah Syndergaard pitches, we pick on him with stolen bases as he leads the MLB again with stolen bases given up after leading baseball last season. He is tremendously slow to the plate, and I wouldn't be surprised to see batters odd towards the end of the year start to be even.
Starling Marte is +120 to steal a base today against him, and that is the lowest stolen base prop I have seen to date. Yes, I bet it, but I will recommend his teammate Francisco Lindor to steal a base today. In 2022, Lindor was second on the Mets in stolen bases with 16. So far to start 2023, he has stolen two bases. His teammate Marte is at seven for comparison. If Lindor gets on base, he will attempt to steal today. At +210, I like his odds.
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