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We get a whole night of baseball this Friday as all 30 MLB teams are in action, with the earliest game starting at 6:40 pm Eastern time. The books also gave us a pleasant surprise last night, releasing many of these props, so by the time you read this article, you likely will have had line movement. If you are bored waiting for MLB to start, check out my College Baseball article.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, April 14, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kodai Senga OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kodai Senga and his disgusting Ghost Fork travel to Oakland to face the Athletics in the Coliseum. Senga has been as good as advertised in his first two outings for the Mets after he departed from the Japanese league. Senga has a 31% K in his first two outings after striking out six and eight batters against the Marlins. His Ghost Fork has an 85.7% K in his first two outings, but the intriguing thing is it's a pitch most big leagues aren't accustomed to seeing. I can see his strikeout numbers settling a bit, but not until hitters have a profile on this pitch later in the season. For now, it will be a lot of guesswork to figure it out.
The Oakland A’s have been the best offense to target Ks against since early 2022. They have owned a 23.7% K since then and have a 24.1% K to start 2023. This ballpark is also a graveyard, so pitching deep into the game shouldn't be a problem for Senga, as he reached around the 90 pitch plateau in both his outings this season.
Drew Rasmussen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-122 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays are so unbelievably hot right now, but they finally get their first real test of the season, heading to Toronto to face the Blue Jays. Rasmussen has 15 Ks in two starts to open up 2023 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.23 WHIP. Rasmussen's 35.6% K is an outlier, but I wouldn't be surprised if he settled somewhere near 25% as the year progressed. The attractive thing here is the line. It seems a bit too low after his second half last season and his start here in 2023.
Toronto is slightly better than the league average, posting a 20.3% K to start the season. After Springs had to exit early yesterday, some length out of Rasmussen here would go a long way for the Rays. Length means opportunities to get strikeouts, and with how Rasmussen has been pitching to start 2023, I will take a shot at over 4.5 Ks.
Sean Manaea OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sean Manaea and the Giants head to Detroit to open up their three-game weekend series against the Tigers. Manaea went six innings with 76 pitches in his first start of the season last week against the Royals. He struck out 8 in that appearance. He has seen a significant velocity bump after spending his summer at Driveline, as his sinker is up 3.5 MPH from last season, and his slider, which he's throwing 62.2% of the time, is up 3.6 MPH.
Manaea, although a small sample size, has a 28.1% K to start 2023, compared to his 23.2% K in 2022. I think this number will settle somewhere in the middle. His opponent, the Detroit Tigers, own a 27.1% K, second worst in baseball, and a 33.3% K against left-hand pitching in 2023. The intriguing thing here is getting plus money at +120 in a matchup like this after Manaea has made adjustments that will help improve his swing and miss.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jorge Soler OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 FanDuel SportsBook)
The greatest lefty masher in the history of the world gets to face Madison Bumgarner today. No, but seriously Jorge Soler is on my radar every single time the Marlins face a lefty, but today he gets Mad Bum, who has been awful against right-handed bats for the last several years. In 2022 Soler had a .322 ISO and a .343 wOBA against left-hand pitching. To start this season, Soler has a ridiculous 1.286 ISO and a .848 wOBA in eight plate appearances.
Bumgarner had a 38.8% hard hit, with a 1.45 WHIP and a .366 wOBA against righties in 2022, and it's gotten even worst to start this season. He already has a 47.4% hard hit, a 1.80 WHIP, and a .405 wOBA, and I can almost guarantee that these numbers will be worst after facing Jorge Soler tomorrow in Miami. I will be betting not only on his total bases but also on his home run prop.
Nico Hoerner OVER 0.5 stolen bases +180 (DraftKings SportsBook)
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I recently proclaimed myself the stolen base king, as I've been very hot in hitting this type of prop early this season. I went on to go 0-4 yesterday, so as they say, karma is a “.....”. I will provide you with my favorite two stolen base props today, but follow me on Twitter to get the whole card.
Nico Hoerner gets the best matchup for stolen bases as he faces Noah Syndergaard. Since 2022 Syndergaard has allowed 33 stolen bases which is the most in MLB over that span. His battery mate Will Smith allowed 54 stolen bases over that span, the seventh most in the big leagues. Picking on Syndergaard for stolen bases will be something we do every time he toes the rubber this season.
Hoerner is a machine on the bases, as he has five stolen bases already early in the 2023 campaign, which is good for second-best in the big leagues. In 2022 he stole 20 bases and was only caught stealing twice. He's swinging a hot bat right now, so getting on base here is a strong possibility, and if that happens, we can almost guarantee a stolen base.
Cedric Mullins OVER 0.5 stolen bases +150 (DraftKings SportsBook)
I had a hard time figuring out who I wanted to write up between Cedric Mullins and Jorge Mateo, and I will be betting on both. Still, for the purpose of the article, I will recommend betting the safer option on Mullins. Mullins will hit leadoff tomorrow and holds the better split against Clevinger. Mullins had 34 stolen bases last season, second in baseball behind his teammate Jorge Mateo. He has five stolen bases already this season, so the willingness to run is there as well, and getting one at-bat to start the game with a chance to be the lead runner is appealing if we're choosing between the two.
Clevinger has allowed four stolen bases in 10 innings pitched in 2023. In 2022 he allowed 13 stolen bases in 114.1 innings pitched. It is proven you can run on Clevinger, and the Orioles are willing to run as they already have 17 stolen bases which is good for second in baseball in 2023.
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