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Whether you agree with the new clock rule changes or not, yesterday was such an enjoyable day to watch the game. Baseball is back, and with that is the opportunity to "put our money where our mouth is." This article will focus on MLB player props throughout the season. We will look to focus on pitcher strikeout props first and foremost as those are often some of the juiciest props on the market. We will also look at MLB hitter props such as home runs, hits, stolen bases, and total bases.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, March 31, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Robbie Ray OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-106 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The books are still gun-shy with strikeout lines against the Guardians, who led baseball with an 18.2% K last season. Although this can be a bit deceiving as they had a 17.3% K vs. right-hand pitching, and a 20.7% K vs. left-hand pitching, Ray's split. Getting Robbie Ray at 5.5 strikeouts at even money seems like an excellent value. Ray posted a 27.4% K last season, with a 13.5% SwStr. In his Cy Young campaign in 2021, Ray had a 32.1% K, with a 15.5% SwStr. Cleveland's projected lineup had a 21.1% K in 2022, and the value of this line is too good to pass on.
David Peterson OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
David Peterson enters 2023 poised for a breakout, and he will get the opportunity to carve out a more significant role with the Mets down Justin Verlander and José Quintana to start the year. Last season he had a 27.9% K, with an elite 14.5% SwStr. In his previous two spring training starts, Peterson threw 68 and 66 pitches, so expecting him closer to the 75-80 range is not out of the question. His opponent, the Miami Marlins, led baseball with a 27.7% K against left-hand pitching last season. Adding the low strikeouts of Segura and Gurriel should lower that number to closer to the league average as the year progresses, but the current projected lineup had a 23.6% K in 2022 against left-hand pitching.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jorge Soler OVER 0.5 total bases (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jorge Soler has destroyed left-hand pitching his entire career, including 2022, where he posted a .322 ISO and a .334 wOBA. This comes with a .171 BABIP, which tells me he was extremely unlucky last season against this split, so the ISO and wOBA could have even been higher. Soler has a 27.5% K, and Peterson creates many swings and misses, as mentioned above, but all we need is a single here. I would also entertain his home run prop, but we will play it a bit safer today to start building a bankroll early in the season.
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 stolen bases (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Corbin Carroll getting a stolen base today is my favorite bet with these odds. Carroll stole 67 bags in the minors last season and had five this spring. According to Statcast his sprint speed at 30.7 ft/sec is the fastest in the big leagues. Since 2019, small sample size because of injuries, Dustin May has the sixth-highest stolen base success rate, as well as the sixth-highest stolen base rate per inning pitched. In 2021 Will Smith gave up 72 SB, which led MLB. In comparison, the next closest was 55. In 2022 he improved but still gave up 46 SB, the fifth worst in the big leagues. If Carroll can get on base today, he is going to run.
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