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Free MLB Player Props - Today's Prop Betting Picks for Hitters and Pitchers (07/17/23)

Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, July 17, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.

We have a 10-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!

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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, July 17, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!

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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Jordan Lyles under 15.5 outs (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)

The Tigers and Royals open up a four-game set tonight in Kansas City with the struggling Jordan Lyles getting the ball for the home side.

Lyles will enter this one sporting a 6.42 ERA on the season while his 5.51 FIP and 5.18 SIERA aren't encouraging figures, either. The right-hander has allowed a hefty 1.86 home runs per nine innings while he's seen his ground-ball rate dip to just 32.6%, well below his 44.3% career mark.

Despite his struggles, Lyles has been given a long leash. He has gone at least five innings in each of his last eight starts. However, he has failed to record more than 15 outs in five of his last nine outings. The veteran has also benefited from a .256 BABIP that is miles below his .302 career mark. Yes, he's been lucky while posting a 6.42 ERA.

The Tigers aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut with a .289 wOBA versus right-handed pitching that is tied for 28th in baseball. However, this is a lineup that has gotten healthier of late after dealing with a plethora of injuries for much of the season. It's a lineup capable of knocking Lyles out of this contest before he can entertain more than 15 outs recorded.

The numbers point toward the under in this case so let's hop on board and bet against the scuffling 32-year-old tonight.

Sonny Gray over 2.5 earned runs (+120, DraftKings sportsbook)

The Minnesota Twins open up a series with the Seattle Mariners tonight and it's Sonny Gray getting the ball for the road team.

The veteran right-hander has enjoyed a stellar season, tossing a 2.89 ERA across 18 starts. However, Gray also sports a 4.15 SIERA that is miles above his surface ERA figure. He also boasts a tiny 3.7% HR/FB clip that is not only unsustainable but is also roughly 8% below his career average. In other words, there is regression coming for Gray sooner than later.

The Mariners haven't exactly raked this season. Their .307 wOBA off righties sits 20th while their .162 isolated power off righties is tied for 15th. However, they sit in the top 10 in walk rate off righties which should give them run-scoring opportunities against a pitcher set to regress moving forward.

Perhaps that regression has kicked in as Gray yielded six earned runs his last time out while he has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four and in five of his last eight starts.

We'll follow the numbers and look for Gray to surrender at least three earned runs tonight, especially considering his 4.63 xFIP on the road.

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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

J.D. Davis over 1.5 total bases (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)

Reds left-hander Brandon Williamson just isn't getting it done.

After tossing a 6.62 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A, Williamson has worked to a 5.21 ERA, 5.17 FIP, and 5.01 SIERA across 10 starts in the big leagues. He has surrendered 1.54 home runs per nine innings and has allowed ground balls on just 35.2% of the balls put into play against him.

Additionally, Williamson has surrendered an .805 OPS and .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters. A 5.40 ERA in 26 2/3 home innings won't help while Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the best hitter-friendly venues in baseball.

So, let's simply grab a right-handed Giants bat at plus money in the form of J.D. Davis. Davis should hit in the three-hole in this one while he owns a strong .211 isolated power versus left-handed pitching versus a .152 mark against righties. He actually sports fairly even splits in his career but the power has been superior against lefties via a .184 ISO off of them versus a .166 mark off righties.

Clearly, Williamson is a pitcher worth targeting on this slate and we'll use Davis to capitalize in this matchup tonight.

Kerry Carpenter over 1.5 total bases (+115, DraftKings sportsbook)

We detailed Lyles above but what a run Kerry Carpenter is on entering this one.

The Tigers' projected cleanup hitter homered three times in Detroit's three-game set in Seattle over the weekend while notching 14 total bases in the series. The underrated slugger has pummeled right-handed pitching to the tune of a .272 ISO and .861 OPS on the season while he's held his own against lefties as well, posting an .839 OPS against same-handed pitching.

As noted above, Lyles gives up a wealth of dingers. Carpenter himself has homered off the veteran in one of his six plate appearances against him while also notching a single in that time. This is a guy that ambushes fastballs and Lyles has thrown fastballs on nearly 50% of his pitches this season.

We're getting plus-money odds on a red-hot player with plenty of power against a pitcher that surrenders a ton of homers. Sign me up all day long on this one.



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday

Bears Draft Luther Burden In Round 2
Buffalo Bills

Bills Move Up To 41st Pick In Trade With Bears

Patriots Add TreVeyon Henderson To The Backfield At Pick No. 38
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Acquire 37th Pick From Raiders, Draft Jonah Savaiinaea

Browns Add Quinshon Judkins To Backfield With 36th Pick
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Acquire 35th Pick From Titans, Select Nick Emmanwori

Texans Select Jayden Higgins 34th Overall
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3

Tyler Shough Could Come Off The Board Before Shedeur Sanders
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

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David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

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Nicolas Dalby

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Andre Muniz

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Ikram Aliskerov

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Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
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Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
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Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
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Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
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Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

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Adam Svensson

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Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

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PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

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Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
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Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
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Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
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