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We have an 8-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, June 12, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
James Paxton to record a win (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
James Paxton might have, once again, started the season injured but he's been stellar in his five starts to date this season.
The left-hander enters tonight's contest with the visiting Colorado Rockies sporting a 3.81 ERA in 26 innings but he also owns a 3.54 FIP and 3.30 SIERA that suggest he has indeed been very good to this point. The veteran southpaw sports an impressive 24.8% K-BB% that should play extremely well in this matchup tonight.
For their part, the Rockies have flat-out stunk against left-handed pitching, especially on the road. Only the Milwaukee Brewers have been worse than the Rockies against lefties on the road this season as measured by their .267 wOBA in these matchups. Their 64 wRC+ off lefties outside of Coors Field is also 29th in baseball.
Paxton is 2-1 in five starts and has gone at least five innings in four of his five starts this season while allowing just three earned runs in 10 home innings this season. He should be able to do his part in earning the win in this one tonight.
James Paxton over 7.5 strikeouts (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
I wrestled over the win vs. strikeout prop for Paxton as both are enticing, so let's just get both in here and avoid any type of remorse. In addition to the information above that suggests Paxton should carve up this Rockies offense, he should be able to his the over on his strikeout prop in the process.
Indeed, the Rockies not only scuffle at the plate in these matchups overall but they also sit 27th with a 27.9% K% on the road against lefties this season. At the same time, Paxton owns a big-time 33% K% on the season while striking out a hefty 17 batters over 10 innings at Fenway Park this season.
The lefty has hit over 7.5 strikeouts in three of five starts this season but all five of his opponents sport superior strikeout rates to the Rockies on the road versus lefties. Let's go all-in on James Paxton in this matchup.
Matthew Liberatore over 3.5 strikeouts (-155, DraftKings sportsbook)
The St. Louis Cardinals entertain the San Francisco Giants tonight, and like the Rockies, the Giants are vulnerable on the road versus left-handed pitching.
They're tied for 17th with a .315 wOBA on the road versus lefties but they also sit in a share of 22nd with a 24.6% K% on the road versus southpaw pitching. On the flip side, while Liberatore owns a weak 15.5% K% on the season, he also posted a 30.3% rate at Triple-A this season. You would think there's at least some positive strikeout rate regression on the horizon.
Additionally, it's important to note Liberatore's home/road splits despite a small big-league sample. He owns a 2.45 ERA and 22.8% K% in 18 1/3 innings at home in his career while being shelled for an 8.04 ERA in 31 1/3 road frames alongside a tiny 13.7% K% in that time. Again, a small sample but one that at least suggests he's pitching where he's at his best tonight.
Let's see if the left-hander can take advantage of a favorable home matchup tonight.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Castellanos over 1.5 total bases (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
Nick Castellanos delivered the over 1.5 total bases easily for us last Monday against a left-handed starter in the Tigers' Joey Wentz. He takes on another scuffling lefty in the form of the D-backs' Tommy Henry this Monday evening in Arizona.
For his part, Henry enters this one sporting a 4.37 ERA but also a 5.76 FIP and 5.58 SIERA. He's missing next to zero bats with a 14.3% K% on the campaign while he's surrendered an elevated 1.57 HR/9 to righties at home in his career. This season, he has actually been worse against left-handed hitters but Castellanos doesn't miss against struggling righties.
The veteran outfielder has long handled left-handed pitching quite well. He's a career .303 hitter with an .873 OPS versus southpaws while he's hitting .329 with an .887 OPS against left-handers so far this season. He has struggled versus lefties on the road but I'm comfortable in this matchup at this price.
Josh Jung over 1.5 total bases (+110, DraftKings sportsbook)
Sign me up for Josh Jung against a struggling left-handed pitcher in the form of the Angels' Tyler Anderson.
Anderson sports a 5.62 ERA on the season and also a 5.14 FIP and a 5.76 SIERA which confirm his poor work to this point. His 33.9% ground-ball rate is miles below his 40.1% clip from his career year in 2022 and his tiny 14.5% K% would be a career-worst figure if the season ended today. Additionally, he has surrendered an .874 OPS, .372 wOBA, and a 5.27 FIP versus right-handed hitters this season.
Enter Josh Jung who has hit lefties for a .317 average alongside a monstrous .317 isolated power and a .993 OPS on the season. His 172 wRC+ tells us that his bat has been 72% superior to the league average while he's slugging .663 versus lefties against a .467 mark against righties.
At this price, Jung is a wildly attractive option against a scuffling southpaw Monday night.
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