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We have a 12-game MLB schedule going down on this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, May 22, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zack Wheeler UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Zack Wheeler takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight on home soil but this is a D-backs offense that has not only raked this season but they simply do not strike out very much.
We'll zero in on their work against right-handed pitching as Arizona sits fifth with a .337 wOBA against them while their 19.2% K% off of righties is the best mark in all of baseball.
Of course, this is no disrespect to Mr. Wheeler who owns a sturdy 28% K% on the campaign while his 22% K-BB% helps keep him into ball games late. He also sports a 4.06 ERA but also a 2.41 FIP and 3.44 SIERA which suggests his surface ERA figure should trend south moving forward.
However, the fact remains that the D-backs have made life very difficult on most pitchers this season, especially those that throw with their right arm. Add it up and Wheeler should have a tough time getting at least seven strikeouts in this one tonight.
Michael Lorenzen UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-138, FanDuel sportsbooks)
Hey, the Kansas City Royals are striking out at a healthy rate this season but Michael Lorenzen is hardly a strikeout artist, by trade.
The right-hander has actually been dialed in on of late and sports a quality 3.44 ERA on the season. However, that figure comes alongside an 18.6% K% and only an 8.7% swinging strike rate on the season. Now, his 27.4% called + swinging strike rate is above his 25.7% career average but he doesn't exactly miss many bats. He tends to get ahead in the count early and go from there.
What I'm worried about is more overall regression in terms of results that, in turn, could knock him out of the game early. His 4.41 ERA is nearly a full run worse than his ERA while his 7.7% barrel rate is well above his 4.6% career mark.
He's 3-for-6 in punching out at least five hitters this season but I'm betting on the downside in this one tonight.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Castellanos 2+ Total Bases (-115, FanDuel sportsbook)
Pardon me for repeating myself but Nick Castellanos once again sees a lefty tonight and he's not exactly a great one in the form of D-backs lefty Tommy Henry.
If you'll recall, I had Castellanos as a 2+ total bases prop last week as well but this is such a great opportunity to cash in at a reasonable price. As noted last week, Castellanos has made a living off of clobbering left-handed pitching as he owns a .301 average, .218 isolated power, and an .869 OPS in his career against lefties, numbers that tower over his work off righties.
His 2023 season splits are far narrower but that should change moving forward.
As for Henry, he sports a 5.00 ERA in five stars but also a 5.70 FIP and 6.16 SIERA. His 9% barrel rate is no good and neither is his 0.9% K-BB%. This is also a pitcher that tossed a 6.33 ERA in four Triple-A starts prior to getting the call to the big leagues.
I don't imagine it will take long before Castellanos crossed the two-total bases threshold tonight.
Tommy Edman 2+ Total Bases (+105, FanDuel sportsbook)
I don't know how he did it, but Reds left-hander Brandon Williamson tossed a gem in his MLB debut at Coors Field, of all places, last week. While that's a tough environment for any pitcher, so is Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
Willamson allowed just one run in his 5 2/3 innings of work in Colorado but this is a guy who was roughed up for a 6.62 ERA in eight starts at the Triple-A level prior to his debut. He actually allowed a 16.7% barrel rate and 41.7% hard-hit rate in Colorado along with a 4.53 FIP in that one.
While I expect Williamson to topple in this one, Edman is the Cardinals worth backing at plus-money odds. The switch-hitting middle infielder does his best work against lefties as he is hitting .354 with a monstrous .292 ISO and 1.038 OPS against southpaws this season. For his career, his .293 average, .223 ISO, and .851 OPS off southpaws tower of his work against righties.
Here we have a hitter who clobbers lefties versus a young left-hander who is due to regress in a bad way. At +105, sign me up for at least two total bags for Edman in this one tonight.
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