RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 8, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 66-49-4 (+2.34 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -148
MIA: Eury Perez | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez
I'll start things off out in Philly, as this weekend has turned into a huge series in terms of the NL Wild Card race. The Marlins will head into town for a weekend set.
Miami will give the ball to Eury Perez (5-4, 2.86 ERA) tonight. The rookie has been everything the Marlins could have asked for and more but is due for some negative regression. He brings in a 3.73 xERA and 3.99 xFIP, as well as a projected 3.90 SIERA. These are still good numbers to be sure, but he'll take on a hot Phillies offense that projects to a .369 wOBA today. It'll be the Phillies' first time seeing the right-hander this season, so that does give him somewhat of an advantage.
It'll be Cristopher Sanchez navigating through the Marlins lineup tonight. Sanchez, (2-3, 3.48 ERA) like Perez, has been everything the Phillies could ask for. He, like Perez, brings in a 3.73 xERA. He's also bringing in a 3.31 xFIP and a 3.39 projected SIERA against a Marlins lineup that projects to just a measly .294 wOBA. He'll take on Miami for the first time this season as well.
I'm not picking a side here, rather I'll take a look at the under. Both of these offenses have played well as of late, but I think these two pitchers keep the offenses at bay. At least for the first five innings, that is. I'll grab the F5 under 5.5, which we can get at -146 on FanDuel.
Pick: F5 Under 5.5 (-146), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.68 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Astros
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: HOU -136
SD: Blake Snell | HOU: Hunter Brown
I'll wrap things up down in Houston as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and the Padres head into town for a weekend set.
It'll be Blake Snell taking the ball for the visiting Friars. Snell (12-9, 2.50 ERA), a Cy Young candidate, has clearly been excellent this season. However, he's been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball, bringing in a 3.94 xERA and 3.65 xFIP. My model is projecting some regression from him today as he takes on an Astros lineup led by a scorching-hot Jose Altuve, who projects to a whopping .449 wOBA against him. Snell projects to a 4.22 SIERA today.
It'll be Hunter Brown (10-10, 4.53 ERA) looking to navigate this disappointing yet tough Padres lineup. Antithetically to Snell, Brown is due for some positive regression today, bringing in a 4.08 xERA and 3.39 xFIP. I've gotten burned by Brown many times this season. I'll back him here as he projects to a 3.64 SIERA against a Padres lineup that projects to just a .310 wOBA.
The Astros also have the bullpen advantage in this one, projecting to a 3.69 bullpen SIERA while the Padres project to a 3.97 SIERA. We can get the reigning World Series champs at -136 on FanDuel, so we'll take that and run with it.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-136), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.74 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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